Ebola has a 1 in 5 chance of spreading to the United States within the month according to a new study. -Yahoo/Atlantic Wire

From the PLOS study. Dark Blue bars are the best case scenario, light blue is the worst case. 

A new study says that the possibility of Ebola spreading to the United States by the end of September is at 18%. -Yahoo/Atlantic Wire. The PLOS study also says in the same time period the U.K. has a 25% chance of Ebola spreading. The study also says that their is a 5% chance of the disease being here already. The longer the disease remains contained the better the chances the disease has to spread outside of Africa. The study looked at global flight patterns and took into account the various ways Ebola can spread. 

My Comment:

The PLOS study can be read here. What's my  take on the study? The statistical methods used are  a bit beyond me unfortunately, so I can't speak to if their model is correct, but their argument makes sense. Although international flight has decreased from the affected countries, it's still happening. It sounds like it depends on whether or not Nigeria can get it's outbreak under control. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. A Nigerian doctor hid his disease and may have exposed as many as 400 people...  Should the outbreak spin out of control in Nigeria as it has in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, then it's a matter of when instead of if. 

The situation is dire but it's important to remember that the United States has a much better medical system then these African nations. We also don't have the same cultural issues that they have. Americans, for the most part, feel that touching the bodies of the dead is taboo and we generally trust scientists and doctors. There will of course be conspiracy theories if and when Ebola gets here but for the most part people will do the smart thing and not risk infection. I'm fairly confident if Ebola does come here we will be able to handle it better then Africa has. Same thing with the U.K. and other European countries. I can't say the same thing for third world countries though. If I was in any African country I would be much more concerned about the outbreak then I am here in the United States.  

Also, I don't think the study took into account the fact that we are bringing back a third person for treatment. The first two patients that we treated seemed to have been helped with no issues but there is always a chance that this third doctor could infect people as well. It's a small chance but at this point it's probably inevitable that Ebola will get here anyways...