Saturday, September 13, 2014

Can Ebola become airborne? It's possible. -CNN

A rally against Ebola. Seems counterproductive if one of them has it... -CNN

Scientists are worried that the Ebola virus may eventually become airborne. -CNN. Right now the virus spreads primarily through contact with infected blood or other bodily fluids. Should the virus mutate into a form that can spread easily through sneezing or coughing, the results could be catastrophic. Ebola could make the change through mutation. As an RNA virus there are several small mutations every generation, but with the virus infecting at least 4800 and probably many more, the chances are getting better for a mutation that would spread the virus through the air. Even in the first three weeks of the outbreak the virus recorded 300 mutations. The worries come as the virus continues to spread, despite the response to it. 

My Comment:
I've got news for them. The virus is already airborne... from a certain point of view. The virus has shown in the lab that under prefect conditions it can spread through the air. It's just not very good at it. In order to spread the virus needs to become an aerosol, which is fairly difficult for a disease that, for the most part, does not infect the lungs. There are other ways to create an aerosol, but they are uncommon and coughing and sneezing are by far the most common ways to do it. 

But that is just semantics. Do I think Ebola will become "fully" airborne? It's possible, especially considering how many people already have the virus. But I think it is unlikely. Plenty of other virus, like HIV and Rabies have had more time and more generations to try and go airborne and they never have. Ebola is way more virulent then either of those diseases so it is still possible. Just not likely. 

So what would an airborne outbreak of Ebola look like? Probably civilization ending. It would spread like wildfire and only the paranoid, isolated or lucky would miss catching it. It wouldn't infect everyone but it would kill 50% of who it infected. Of course that number could change since we don't really know how deadly this strain of Ebola is yet. There is also chance that Ebola could mutate in to a less severe form as well. Still, you would be looking at hundreds of millions dead from the disease itself, not counting all the deaths from the inevitable civil unrest, warfare and starvation the disease would cause. Society would break down completely. I don't think it would lead to extinction, but it would be as close as modern man has come. I'd take a nuclear war over it.

Of course that is the worst case scenario. I don't think it is going to happen. I hope it isn't going to happen. Ebola is bad enough as it is. Liberia is starting to break down completely and every day there is a chance of the disease spreading to new countries. 1st world countries will be able to handle it but if it continues to spread to places with bad medical systems and poor hygiene, nothing good will happen. We can only hope that it stays contained where it is and burns itself out...  

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