My predictions for 2016.

As the year comes to a close I thought I could to another predictions post. In the past I have done these posts before the various political debates and I might as well do it for next year as well. I'm going to format it in the same way I do the debate posts, that is to say that I will post what I will think will happen and then how likely it will be with a percentage.

But before I do that I have to admit that 2015 was a pretty terrible year, at least in terms of this blog's subject matter. There were several huge terrorist attacks and ISIS is a bigger threat then it ever has been. As of the time of this writing, people are terrified that there will be another attack on New Year's Eve, to the point that many countries are even canceling their celebrations. Off the top of my head, Russia, Belgium and Turkey have all canceled events due to threats of terrorism. The fact that many of my predictions I am about to post could very well come true before the year is technically over is just sad. Hopefully nothing happens...

As for me this wasn't anywhere near as bad of a year. This month has kind of sucked but other then that it was ok. I made more money this year then I have in any other year and I am generally happy with the way things are going in my life. This blog is also doing better then it was this time last year, in terms of both views and post quality, in my own humble opinion. I am looking forward to a new year though and the continued growth of this blog.

Now for my predictions. I am going to organize these by topic and if you want me to go more in depth with any of my predictions, let me know with a comment!

2016 Presidential Election:
-Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's candidate for President. 90%
-Hillary Clinton will not be president because she will be arrested and awaiting trial or actually be in jail. 5% Should be 100%...
-Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic Party's candidate for President. 1%
-Bernie Sanders will run third party after losing to either Hillary Clinton or Martin O'Malley in the primaries. 5%
-Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will drop dead allowing Martin O'Malley to become the candidate. >1%
-Martin O'Malley becomes the presidential candidate on his own merits and not because the other candidates died or had their campaigns explode, literally or figuratively. 0%

-Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's candidate. 90%
-If he is the candidate, the Republican Party will back him and won't try to undermine him. 75%
-Ted Cruz ends up as the Republican Party's candidate. 5%
-Combined chances of anyone else ends up as the Republican Party's candidate. >1%
-Jeb Bush will be the Republican Party's candidate. 0%. I'd go lower if mathematically possible. At this point it would take divine (or diabolical) intervention...
-Donald Trump will run as a third party candidate. 1%
-Someone will try to kill Donald Trump either before or after the election. 1% (much higher then I would rate the chances for all the other candidates combined)

-The election will be between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 90%
-Donald Trump will win. 65%
-Trump will also gain more African American supporters then any Republican in recent memory. 90%
-Trump will also gain Asian and women supporters compared to past candidates and will not lose a significant chunk of Hispanic voters. 60%
-If Trump is the Republican candidate, I will vote for him. 90% (I don't want Clinton to win and I don't really like any of the third party options)

Other Political Predictions:
-Barack Obama will try to ram through some kind of gun control before the end of his term. 99%
-This will result in a civil war. 1%
-No national gun control legislation will be passed by the Federal Government. 100%
-There will be a mass shooting not related to foreign terrorism in 2016. 100%

-Race relations will continue to deteriorate. 99%
-This will also result in civil war. 1%
-Someone directly involved with Black Lives Matter will either intentionally kill police officers or commit an act of racially motivated terrorism. 85%
-Opinion polls on Black Lives Matter will shift until the majority of people admit to disliking them. 75%
-Racial violence between blacks and whites will be more common next year then they were this year. More Dylann Roof's and equivalents on the black side. 70%
-The media will be held at least partially accountable for their role in this mess. 0%
-The media will blame the mess on racism, the police and gun rights, while avoiding blaming themselves, Democratic polices, and gun control. 100%
-Crime rates will increase due to police abandoning tactics that could offend Black Lives Matter. 60%
-Some police officers will die because they will hesitate to shoot a suspect out of fear of being the next Darren Wilson. 80%

-Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate. 90%
-Republicans will also retain their lead in Governor's offices and State legislatures. 70%

-Social Justice will continue to face an even larger backlash then they did during the later half of 2015. 90%
-Social Justice will face such a backlash that it will hurt the Democrats chances in 2016. 75%
-Social Justice will still be a large force by the end of 2016. 70%
-Criticism of Social Justice, such as using the term Social Justice Warrior and anger over political correctness along with a general shifting of the Overton Window will push SJ out of the mainstream 25%
-Social shaming campaigns will lose some of their effectiveness in 2016. 33%

-Barack Obama will finish out his term as president and won't be assassinated or removed from office. 99.9999%

Foreign Policy:
-Relations with Russia will continue to falter. 55%
-Relations between Turkey and Russia will deteriorate to the point that war erupts. 10%
-NATO will be drawn into that war. 1%
-The Ukraine conflict will largely stay the same as it is now. A stalemate with little actual fighting. 80%
-Vladimir Putin will still be in charge of Russia by the end of 2016. 95%

-China will get into a conflict with one of its neighbors, over maritime claims. 55%
-That conflict will lead to an actual war. >1%
-China's economy will collapse for any reason. 25%

-The Mexican Drug War will continue with it's current intensity. 80%

-The Syrian Civil war will still be going on by 2017. 99.9999%
-The United States will deploy major ground forces in Syria and/or Iraq. 10%
-Some other country will deploy major ground forces. 1%
-Bashar al-Assad will be the president of Syria by the end of 2016. 90%
-China will join the war in Syria, in a role similar to Russia's. 60%
-The Iraqi government will survive 2016. 98%

-A major international war will break out due to reasons I did not mention above and not related to terrorism. 2%

ISIS:
-ISIS will still control significant parts of both Iraq and Syria. 99%
-ISIS will lose either Mosul or Raqqa and have their territory shrunk in both Iraq and Syria. 45%
-ISIS will actually expand in Iraq and Syria. 35%
-ISIS will lose control of most of the major cities they currently hold in Iraq and Syria and will be reduced to holding onto backwater towns and the country sides. 5%
-ISIS will expand in the other countries they control territory in, such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Nigeria and Afghanistan. 99%
-ISIS will also expand in other countries, to the point of taking and holding territory. 95%
-ISIS will be the main jihadist group in Syria. 99%


-ISIS's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will still be alive by 2017. 75%
-ISIS will conduct an assassination or terror attack that kills a world leader. 65%
-ISIS will assassinate the Pope. 50%
-ISIS will execute another US citizen; 80%
-ISIS will still exist by 2017. 100%
-Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States will admit their role in creating, funding and supporting ISIS, either currently or in the past. 0%
-The United States will admit their role in creating ISIS. 1%

Terrorism:
-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to the San Bernardino attacks in the United States in 2016. 90%
-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to the Paris attacks in the United States in 2016. 75%
-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to 9/11 in the United States in 2016. 20%
-There will be a terrorist attack that will occur but will fail to kill anyone due to incompetence on the part of the terrorists. 99%
-Canada will experience a terrorist attack. 80%

-Europe will have multiple smaller terrorist attacks and at least one on the scale of the Paris attacks. 90%
-Europe will have a attack on the scale of 9/11 with 1000+ casualties. 45%
-Europe will have a terrorist attack using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. 33%

-North Africa will see more attacks like the ones that occurred in Egypt and Tunisia this year. 75%
-Boko Haram will still conduct the majority of terrorist attacks throughout next year. 80%
-Egypt will be a hotbed of terrorism and westerners will be attacked much more frequently. 60%

-Asia will suffer a major terrorist attack on the scale of the Paris attacks. 75%

-South America will have a major terrorist attack of any scale. 15%

-At least one major terrorist attack will involve people that infiltrated the United States or Europe as a refugee. 80%
-The vast majority of terrorist attacks in both Europe and America will be conducted by 2nd generation citizens. 75%

-Other terrorist organizations besides ISIS will pull of a major terrorist attack in 2016. 90%
-Al-Qaeda will become relevant again. 50%
-The vast majority of terror attacks in Europe and North America will either be directly conducted by ISIS or inspired by them. 99%

Conclusions:
As you can see I am somewhat pessimistic about 2016. I just think that terrorism is going to be a huge issue this year and I don't think the problem will get any better until it has gotten way worse. Nobody is taking ISIS seriously and they will continue to expand their capabilities to attack Europe and America. I also am not to hopeful about foreign policy in general. The world is a mess right now and I'm afraid that 2016 isn't going to be much better then 2015 was.

About the only good thing I can say about 2016 is at the end of it we will be getting a new president. Barack Obama has been a huge failure as a president and I am guessing that if he hadn't been president, or had been a one term one, many of these predictions would have much smaller chances of happening or would be completely irrelevant. Whoever gets elected in 2016, I can't imagine them being any worse then Barack Obama has been, even the next president gets us into a nuclear war and kills the entire country. Obama has been that bad, and the day we elect a new president will be a great day, even if it isn't someone I like.

For me personally, I think next year will be great. Well as great as things can be when the world is burning around you. Despite that I am looking forward to the new year, and even if I sound like a pessimist I do think that 2016 will be the beginning of the end for the current crisis's the world is facing. Though 2016 might not be a good year, I do think that 2017 has a much better chance of being better then 2015 has been. There is light at the end of the tunnel and I think we are getting closer to a new day. Things will get better in the long term, even as the short term looks grim...