ISIS terrorist attack possibly disrupted in Munich, Germany, and Rochester, New York. Reuters.

A German police officer at a train station in Munich. Reuters. 

A credible threat of a terrorist attack in Munich, Germany, appears to have been either disrupted or not real in the first place. Reuters. Germany revived the tip shortly before midnight on New Year's Eve. The target was two train stations in Munich, which German authorities evacuated. No terrorist attack actually occurred. German officials are not completely sure if the threat was genuine. The plot was said to involve as many as 7 suicide bombers, and the information came from French intelligence services. Europe has had several terror threats and scares since the Paris attacks that killed 130 people. In Belgium, the New Year's Eve fireworks were canceled due to terror threats and in another tip, Vienna warned of many possible terror attacks throughout Europe. 

In the United States, a man was arrested for plotting an attack in Rochester, New York. The man arrested in that plot was in communication with ISIS. The man had plotted to attack a New Year's Eve celebration at a restaurant and bar. He had bought knives and ammonia  and had plans to make a pressure cooker bomb. He also wanted to take hostages. After the arrest, Rochester canceled it's plan for fireworks. 

My Comment:

It sounds like we were extremely lucky to avoid a terrorist attack last night. Fortunately, none of these plots came to fruition. Though it is far from clear how serious the situation in Germany, or the rest of Europe for that matter, it is clear that the attempted attack in Rochester, New York could have been very bad. Though it was clear that the attack was by an amateur, had he pulled of off, people could have died. It doesn't sound like he was able to actually make a pressure cooker bomb but he was able to purchase some knives. He could have cut some people. 

It's clear that the potential attack in Munich was the more serious threat, even though the certainty about it seems a lot less likely. If ISIS had 5 to 7 suicide bombers they could utterly destroyed those train stations, which could have killed dozens of people. Maybe even hundreds. The fact that Germany was able to react to it so quickly might have reduced casualties, but even then, some people would have died if the terrorists had attacked.

Which brings up the question. Why didn't they? Obviously Germany took the threat seriously, but absolutely nothing happened. I think there are a couple of possibilities. The first is that the threat wasn't valid in the first place. It is possible that whoever heard of the attack was hearing about possible plans, not set in stone plans. I could have been that the train station on New Years Eve was just one of many possible targets, but they couldn't take the chance that it was just an option. It's even possible that the threat was just big talk from wannabe terrorists that actually didn't have anywhere near the equipment, money or weapons to pull off such an attack. 

Another possibility was the attack was a deliberate misinformation campaign from ISIS. I wouldn't put it past them to send out false information to European intelligence officials through a double agent. The benefits of doing so are obvious. For one thing, Germany had to waste time and resources reacting to the threat. They also will inspire terror and fear in the German population at no cost to themselves. ISIS could also use the threat as a distraction so they can attack elsewhere. 

Finally, it's possible the threat was very real and for whatever reason, the terrorists pulled out at the last second. It is very possible that once they figured out that Germany was responding to the attack and pulling people out of the target area, they may have decided to call off the attack. Why hit them when they know you are coming? You won't kill as many people and there's a good chance that the German authorities could kill you before you pull the attack off. Perhaps they decided to wait for another day? 

I think all three possibilities are at least plausible, though I am hoping that it is the first option and not either of the other options. The second option means that ISIS has an effective counter intelligence system up and running and they are effectively feeding intelligence services false information. The third, and most threatening, is that the attack was called off and may still occur with a different target or tactic being used. I think that the first option is most likely, but any of them are possible... 

No matter what though, both the incident in New York and the possible attack in Germany shows how ISIS is so much different then al-Qaeda is when it comes to tactics. Al-Qaeda always tried to pull of major terrorist attacks on tourist attacks and in major cities. Munich probably qualifies on both counts but Rochester, New York does not. And in both cases, the targets were not major tourist attractions, but normal places. Train stations and bars are not what you think of when you think of potential terrorist targets. Al-Qaeda would have tried to hit an airplane or try to attack a major celebration, and would have most likely failed. With these softer targets, ISIS has a better chance of pulling something off. 

And it is smart for ISIS to hit places like that. In the past, if civilians want to avoid being a victim of a terrorist attack, they could just avoid flying or staying away from huge events like the ball drop in New York. But if ISIS just hits some random bar in upstate New York, then it means they can hit anywhere at anytime. That's very disturbing and is probably even more effective in spreading terror then hitting something like the New Year's Eve celebration in New York City. 

No matter what though, I am glad that none of these attacks came to happen. A major terrorist attack in Munich and a more minor one in New York would have not been a good way to start the year. At least last year we had a week before the first major terror attack, the Charlie Hebdo shootings in France. Speaking of which, it's just sad how that both the San Bernardio and 2nd Paris attacks overshadowed the Charlie Hebdo attacks...  Hopefully, we will last longer this year then we did last year without a terrorist attack...