Friday, January 16, 2015

Rebels in Ukraine report they have taken Donetsk airport. Yahoo/AP

A rebel tank in a fortified position near Luhansk. Yahoo/AP

Separatist rebels in Ukraine are claiming victory in the months long battle over Donetsk airport. Yahoo/AP. Since May Ukrainian loyalist and Russian backed rebels have fought over the airport. The airport has been destroyed to the point where it has little strategic value but it has immense symbolic value. A rebel flag now flies over the main civilian terminal, which had long been a stronghold for government troops. The battle is part of a larger offensive by the rebels to take back territory lost last year. Ukraine rebels have rejected peace plans by Ukraine and Russia and are vowing to continue the fight. Both sides in the conflict are blaming each other for the deaths of 13 people who killed while driving in a bus which got hit by artillery. 

My Comment:
The situation with ISIS and all the other various other Islamic extremists have drawn attention away from the Ukraine conflict. The conflict itself is still going on though, no matter if the western world is paying attention to it. If the reports are true and the rebels were able to take Donetsk airport then that is a game changer. Like the article said, the airport has little value other then as a symbol. The airport has largely been destroyed, with the control tower collapsing and many buildings damaged and destroyed. It will have little use but it still represents a huge victory for the rebels considering how hard they fought for it. 

The situation in Ukraine is pretty terrible for both government and rebel held areas. I have heard some reports that the people in the rebel held areas have been starving and I posted awhile ago about how they could lose power and have lost social services. Ukraine itself has seen its economy destroyed and have little military strength left.

That tells me that the conflict in Ukraine is going to continue to be a stalemate for the most part. There will be some minor victories, like the one at Donetsk airport, but for the most part the war will devolve into one of attrition. Neither side is powerful enough to wipe out the other, yet neither side is in such a dire situation that they will negotiate. The rebels especially have little reason to end the fighting as they hope to gain back some more territory. The only way the conflict will end quickly is if a foreign power comes in and destroys one side or the other. I don't see that happening so I predict that this conflict will continue to fester in 2015.  


Here's a bonus video taken by a drone. It shows how utterly devastated the Donetsk airport really is. It's two months old as well so there is even more damage now. 

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