Monday, January 26, 2015

ISIS has all but lost the battle for Kobani. Yahoo/AP

Kurds on patrol in Kobani. Yahoo/AP

ISIS has been nearly pushed out of the Syrian city of Kobani after months of intense siege warfare and allied airstrikes. Yahoo/AP. Kurdish fighters have taken most of the city and the surrounding hillsides, including one where the black ISIS flag used to fly over. Now the Kurdish flag flies over that hill. ISIS only contests a few streets in the city and are expected to be fully expelled within a day or two. This major victory seemed impossible last year when ISIS had rolled through many of the surrounding villages and had control of almost all of the city, causing a massive refugee problem. The tide began to turn due to two factors. First, the Untied States joined the war and sent dozens of airstrikes into the are. 80% of the strikes in Syria were in the Kobani area. Second, Turkey allowed hundreds of Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga fighters to join the fight, reinforcing the Syrian Kurds already fighting. The battle has killed over 1000 ISIS fighters along with 500 Kurdish fighters and civilians, according to data from earlier in the month. 

My Comment:
Looks like the "Syrian Stalingrad" is finally coming to an end. And it was a brutal battle. Last fall, if you would have told me by 2015 ISIS would lose the battle of Kobani, I am not sure I would have believed you. Of course, back then, the United States wasn't involved. That isn't to say that U.S. airstrikes won the battle by themselves. The Syrian and Iraq Kurds deserve the lions share of the credit. They were the ones that held the line last fall and they are the ones that have taken back the city in brutal city fighting. The men and women of the YPG and other Kurdish militias earned this victory. All we did was support them. 

This is a major defeat for ISIS. Not only was Kobani a seriously important town strategically, it had symbolic importance as well. Kobani may not have been the place where they myth of ISIS invincibility died, but it contributed to it. Losing 1000 fighters, with more wounded, isn't sustainable for the Islamic State. Getting beat after throwing so much into a battle is a huge morale drain as well. I had heard that ISIS fighters dreaded being sent to Kobani and for good reason. It was a buzz saw for ISIS and it cost them much more then they could afford.

Is this the turning point in the war? Probably not. ISIS is still expanding somewhat in Syria. They are getting beaten back a bit in Iraq, and they are losing fighters to battle and airstrikes everyday. But they still control a massive amount of people, resources and territory. They are also capable of mounting new attacks and are getting new recruits everyday. The momentum may have turned but this is still a long war. If Kobani is any indication of how brutal the war against ISIS is going to be, it is going to take years to defeat them... 

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