The war against ISIS is not going well in Syria. The Daily Beast

ISIS fighters. The Daily Beast/Reuters.

ISIS is still taking territory in Syria despite setbacks in Iraq and a withering air campaign. The Daily Beast. More then 1/3rd of Syria is now under control of ISIS militants. ISIS has not lost any territory in Syria either. It is claimed that ISIS has doubled the territory under their command. Most of that territory is wasteland but over 1 million Syrians live in the areas that have been taken, both by ISIS and the Al-Nusra Front. Most of these territorial gains were uncontested rural areas that ISIS is using for safe travel. The Free Syrian Army is upset at this situation because allied airstrikes are not targeting the front lines (outside of Kobani) and are instead targeting ISIS leadership. U.S. leadership claims that Iraq is the priority in the fight against ISIS since the armies on the ground there are more reliable and trustworthy. 

My Comment:

I'm not sure how much I agree with this article from The Daily Beast. Yes Syria is a mess and ISIS has taken a ton of territory there. But in Iraq they have suffered some recent defeats and have stopped taking territory. They have also failed to take Kobani in Syria, which has turned into a hellish meatgrinder for ISIS fighters. Plus they don't have the air of invincibility they had last year. Kobani and Iraq prove that they can be stopped and pushed back. And the airstrikes are having an effect.

Having said all that, the situation in Syria is terrible. ISIS, and to a lesser extent, the Al-Nusra Front, are taking territory from both the Syrian regime and the Free Syrian Army because both sides are so weak from fighting each other that neither are in any position to fight ISIS. The lack of friendly airstrikes for the Free Syrian army is especially harmful because it means that ISIS and the FSA are on an unequal footing. After all ISIS has better weapons and vehicles then the FSA. The Syrian Army isn't getting much help from anyone either. Most of their Shia allies are fighting in Iraq now. 

So how will this play out? Unless something drastically changes on the ground I see ISIS continuing to push and take territory from both the Syrian regime and the Free Syrian Army during the rest of this year. I don't see the regime collapsing entirely, but I could see the secular rebels being wiped out. Kobani will stand and the Kurds in the north will keep their territory, but ISIS will expand elsewhere. The battle in Iraq will slowly start to turn but the fight there will continue long enough that I don't expect any major intervention in Syria anytime soon. No matter what happens though, the whole region will remain a mess for a very long time. Even if ISIS is eliminated there is going to be so much bad blood between all the various ethnic and religious groups it is going to take generations to heal from it.