Monday, December 22, 2014

Ukraine threatens to cut off power to separatist controlled areas. Yahoo/Reuters

A separatist fighter stands near a damaged building. Yahoo/Reuters.

Ukraine is threatening to cut off power to the separatist controlled areas of the country if the people there do not adhere to consumption limits. Yahoo/Reuters. The months of fighting have disrupted energy in the country as coal supplies have been cut off. In a normal year Ukraine would have 4 or 5 million tons stockpiled for winter, but this year they only have 1.5 million tons. The entire country is facing rolling blackouts. The rebel controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk will have to ration their use of electricity if they do not want to be cut off. Ukraine has tried to buy coal from outside sources but efforts have failed, in part due to Russian interference. Ukraine had already cut off pensions and social programs for the rebel held areas. 

My Comment:
This could be a humanitarian disaster if some kind of agreement isn't made. The rebels can survive without heat and all the other things that electricity provides, but many civilians may not be able to. Especially the very old and very young. Since those people have also been cut off from pensions and social programs they could be especially vulnerable. If it was the summer it would not be as much of a concern but Ukraine has a cold climate which means people could freeze if electricity and gas are cut off. 

Is this the right move, should it come to pass? Depends on how you look at it. There is certainly a humanitarian aspect to it. The people that will have their electricity shut off will suffer. But from a strategic viewpoint, it makes sense. It will hurt the rebels somewhat and the extra suffering for the civilians could turn them against the rebels. Or it could just make them support the rebels more. Either way though a lot of people are going to get hurt. 

As for the war itself, it seems to have calmed down somewhat. At the very least it isn't making the headlines nearly as much as it used to. The fighting has definitely died down a bit, but that doesn't mean the war should be ignored by the media. Unfortunately, the news cycle this year has been beyond insane, so no matter what happens important stories will eventually be left behind. 

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