Sunday, September 13, 2015

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri calls for more Jihadi unity, lone wolf attacks on the west. Reuters.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri. Reuters.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has released a new audio recording calling for more cooperation between Jihadists and more "lone wolf" attacks in the west. Reuters. Zawahri called for more attacks like the Boston marathon bombing and the Charlie Hebdo attacks. He also called for Jihadists to strike at homes and cities throughout the west but specifically mentioned attacks on America. Zawahri also requested more cooperation between al-Qaeda and other Jihadi groups. While still claiming that ISIS's caliphate is illegitimate, he claimed to wish that all groups could work together in Syria. A new, independent sharia court could be formed to mediate disputes between ISIS and al-Qaeda. 

My Comment:
These calls for lone wolf attacks are nothing new. Indeed, Zawahri and ISIS have called for them in the past. These lone wolf attacks have a mixed record for success. Many times, the terrorists who try don't have the weapons or explosives to actually be effective. There have been attacks with hatchets or knives that failed with only a few people hurt. And who can forget the attack on a free speech event in Texas? Two guys with guns opened fire, slightly wounding a guard, and then got lit up by off duty cops. 

And that's the problem with these attacks. For an effective terror attack you need most of the following things:
-weapons or explosives
-a really good plan
-money
-a soft target
-luck 

You can have a successful attack with a few of those things missing but I am guessing that the vast majority of these lone wolf attackers won't have more then one or two. Most of these attackers will accomplish very little and die pointlessly. Which, honestly, is probably the best outcome.

In America it is even more difficult to pull off a terror attacks. We don't have the underground gun market that Europe has. Sure legal guns are easy to come by but you simply can't get fully automatic weapons here. Even where they are legal the laws for them are so extreme that even most citizens in good standing can't get one without it costing an arm and leg, let alone a Jihadist. And the large number of legal guns and concealed carry laws mean that there are few places that are "soft" targets. Our cops are well armed and trigger happy. In short I don't worry too much about the threat from lone wolves. They may try to pull off attacks but I just don't see them succeeding all that often. It's much easier in Europe though...  

The other development in this story is much more disturbing. ISIS and al-Qaeda have had a long and bitter feud that often results in actual warfare. Al-Qaeda's al-Nusra front spends more time fighting against ISIS then is really good for either side. If ISIS and al-Nusra could put aside their differences they would have a much stronger chance of overtaking Syria then they would alone. 

I don't see it happening on a large scale. ISIS and al-Nusra occasionally work together but the truth of the matter is that they don't really operate in the same areas. ISIS has most of their forces in the east, while al-Nusra is located mostly in the northwest. And they have other rebel groups and the regime in between them. So even if they do decide to team up, not much on the ground would change for the time being. 

Still, I would rather have ISIS and al-Nusra be hated enemies instead of allies of convenience. My hope is that nothing comes of this call from Zawahri. Given how strong ISIS is in comparison to al-Qaeda they may reject this call out of hand. After all, ISIS doesn't seem to "do" allies. They have groups that have sworn allegiance to them and enemies. And as long as al-Qaeda decides to remain independent from ISIS, they will be enemies. 

My political beliefs. AKA why I disagree with everyone on the right but am still on the right.

As the 2016 election looms, I have been spending a lot of time thinking about what I believe politically. In the past I have described myself as a right-libertarian and I think that still holds. But it's also true that I disagree with a lot of people on the right about a great many things. That being said, I am nowhere near being on the left. I have huge problems with the way the political left is in America and globally and compared to my disagreements with the left my disagreements with the right seem rather trivial.

Still, there is a lot on the right that I just don't agree with. I haven't really found a "home" so to speak. Even with the factions I agree with most, there are beliefs and policies that I can't support. I've looked long and hard to find a home on the right, even looking at some pretty obscure political theories, but in every case I have found something I fundamentally disagree with. I'm going to go through most of these groups, describe what the believe and why I disagree with them. Finally, most of this will be from an American perspective. And keep in mind that these categories are defined by me and may not match up with what everyone else thinks. And of course, there is going to be a lot of overlap in beliefs and not every member of every group thinks the same way, so a criticism of some should not be read as a criticism of all.

Social Conservatives/Evangelical Christians:
Come on, you don't need me to explain who these guys are. They are the ones that are against gay marriage, abortion and many other things based on religious reasons. Think Mike Hucakbee or Ben Carson. Out of anyone on the right I probably disagree with them the most. Unfortunately they seem to have the most power and nobody can get elected without pandering to them on the right.

Why do I disagree with them? Largely because I am not all that religious. I'm one of those rare people on the right that just doesn't care one way or the other about religion, at least not the Christian relgion. I don't hate Christians, like so many people on the left do, but as far as I am concerned "because God said so" isn't much of an argument for me. I also don't like how they inject religion into every issue, and in the past, Evangelicals were very pro-censorship for art, television, games and movies they didn't like. That alone puts me very far away from their political beliefs.

And the worst part is that they make the rest of us on the right look bad. Let's take the example of gay marriage, a battle the right has recently lost. The Evangelical right pretty much made the "because God said so" argument alone even though there are secular arguments against gay marriage. Granted, I don't know if any of them can counter the argument that people should do what they want as long as they don't hurt anyone, but they did exist. And as always, just because I am stating them doesn't mean I am arguing for them. Here's a short list:

-We shouldn't allow gay marriage because we have never done so in the entire course of human history.
-We should figure out if gay marriage has any long term negative effects over the course of a couple of generations before we decide to do it universally.
-Government shouldn't be involved in marriage in the first place. Let religious people do what they want and gays do what they want, all of them free from government interference.
-It's probably a bad idea, but no matter what happens we should respect democracy and go with what the people choose. Put it up for a vote.

Are they great arguments? Who knows, because they got lost in the noise between the religious right and the left. And that's the way it goes on so many issues the religious right. They just drown out anyone on the right that disagrees with them or has alternate solutions.

Traditionalists:
Basically social conservatives without the religious justifications. Instead of "because God said so" it's "because it's worked in the past". In the gay marriage example they would be the ones saying we shouldn't do it because it has never been done, or even the "let's take it slow" example. Since they are so hard to separate them from the Evangelicals I don't think most people think they exist, but I have seen a few people online that claim to be Traditionalists without being religious.

Honestly, I tend to agree with them in principle, but not in practice. I feel change for the sake of change is stupid and is basically chaos, which is why I have a huge problem with the left side of the political spectrum. And I do think that traditional gender roles do have a larger place in the world then any leftist would admit.  

But I do think that sometimes change should be necessary. For the gender roles example, I think that most people will and do fit into the traditional roles. Those that don't though, shouldn't be punished for it. If people want to be gay, let them. If they want to be a girl that wears pants or a man that wears dresses, then fine. And with the rate of technological and cultural evolution, the old ways will simply not work all of the time. Change is often necessary and we should do so when it makes sense. I think traditionalist like to think that it never makes sense to change and that's where I disagree with them.

Fiscal Conservatives:
These are the people that want to cut government spending at all costs. They oppose spending, socialism and pretty much any government spending that isn't 100% necessary for the functions of the government. This was the Tea Party's shtick when they first came out and fiscal conservatives are still a major faction today. Basically whenever you hear a candidate calling for cuts they are pandering to the fiscal conservatives.

Of course the government wastes an obscene amount of money and I wish they were more efficient but  I think the fiscal conservatives go to far most of the time. Though I hate the welfare state and am on the record as disagreeing with the expansion of social programs the left seems bound and determined to inflect on us I think there are good government programs as well. I'm not for a total gutting of the social programs our government provides and I think research and development is a decent way to spend tax money, as long as it is efficient and scientifically valuable.

I do like many government programs. I'm all for social security and medicare, if the government could just figure out a way to keep them fiscally solvent. I'm also not against all regulation. Yes, there is way to much of it right now, but the alternative, letting people do whatever they want, even if it hurts people, isn't something I agree with. Hell, I'd say that most useful regulation has more to do with ensuring competence instead of punishing those who would take advantage of people. Basically, I agree that our government is out of control, but I don't think we need to go as far as the fiscal conservatives want to go.

War Hawks:
They want war, surveillance and spending on the military. Currently they are the ones pushing for intervention in Syria, more sanctions against Russia and ripping up the agreements with Cuba and Iran. To be fair to the right, there are quite a few of these people on the left as well. I'd consider both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to be essentially war hawks on occasion, especially when it came to the intervention in Libya.

I do completely agree that we should spend more on the military. After all, our soldiers are underpaid and we need to create new tech to counter Chinese and Russian advantages. But at the same time we are wasting huge amounts of money on sub-optional programs like the F-35 and the littoral combat ship. War Hawks often don't go with what works but with what works for their constituents. That's no way to run a military.

And right now, further war is the last thing we need. We are still dealing with the consequences of our last interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. We don't need to be picking a fight in Syria, Iran, Cuba and, most of all, Russia. Indeed, my biggest disagreement with the war hawks is their obsession with Russia. If Russia wants to have adventure campaigns that will ripple their military in Syria and Ukraine, why should we stop them? And I consider Russian values a lot more palatable then the ones being espoused in Europe right now. We do have to fight ISIS and al-Qaeda but I think anything besides that is really stupid right now.

I am, of course, opposed to the NSA, CIA and FBI surveillance programs and have detailed why again and again, so I don't see the need to repeat myself. Needless to say though, it's a major disagreement I have with war hawks.

I do have to say that I despise pacifism and think that in many cases, war is the answer. I still don't have a problem with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in principle, even though the execution for both was atrocious. You just have to be smart about it and right now the war hawks don't strike me as thinking things through. A war with Iran or, God forbid, Russia is not what we need right now.

Libertarians:
Think Rand Paul, Ron Paul, and to a lesser extent, Ted Cruz and Scott Walker for people in the Republican party and Gary Johnson for people outside of it. These are the people that want less government, less war and less regulation. In many ways they resemble liberals, but have very different reasons for coming to their conclusions. For example both the left and libertarians are against the police state but for the left it's because of race and race alone while the libertarians are more concerned with liberty in general, regardless of race.

I'd like to call myself a libertarian.  I really would. I'm mostly for letting people do what they want as long as it doesn't hurt anyone. But even though I agree with about 95% of their positions, the 5% I disagree with irks me so much that I just can't go along with them. And I don't think their economic theories work. Going to the gold standard? Never happen and even if it did, it wouldn't work. A lot of their economic positions are close enough to the fiscal conservatives, so see above if you want to see where I disagree there. Economics isn't the only thing I disagree with.

Take one example. Most libertarians agree that we need criminal justice reform in this country. I agree wholeheartedly. But in the libertarian conversation there are so many people that just have a pathological hatred of police, and would hate them no matter what. To the point that there rhetoric is indistinguishable from black lives matter, a group that I consider responsible for the deaths of police officers. And it makes no sense whatsoever. You can be in favor of police reform without hating everyone that wears a badge. I want the war on drugs to end, asset forfeiture to be illegal and mandatory bodycams as well, but you don't need to hate cops to have that position. Indeed, many cops would agree with those positions. I'm someone who has a lot of friends and family that either currently work in the criminal justice system or have in the past and to hear them described as monsters pisses me off. Indeed, I think for the more extreme among the libertarians, "police reform" is code for "let's round up all the cops and shoot them" and as long as those people make up a sizable faction of libertarians I don't want anything to do with them.

Another thing is their pacifism. Although I disagree with the war hawks and think that America needs to leave things alone for awhile, I don't think that pacifism is the answer either. So many libertarians just want to bury their heads in the sand and think something like ISIS will solve itself. It won't. Though our current efforts are a joke, it's better then just putting our fingers in our ears and pretending it will go away on its own.

Nationalists:
Put America first. Enforce immigration laws, make America "America" again. Stop letting countries like China get away with murder when it comes to trade. Protect our trade, our culture and out borders. Donald Trump is probably the closest we have to a nationalist candidate, though he is more correctly labeled a populist. My criticisms of nationalism might not apply to Trump directly, though it may count for many of his supporters.

Once again, I agree with a lot of what the nationalists are saying. International politics is a zero sum game and I don't have a problem with anyone saying that we should look out for our interests ahead of anyone else's. And our current immigration policies and border security is a joke. We really should be deporting more people that are here illegally.

So why am I not a nationalist? For one thing, the Nazis and Imperial Japan ensures that anyone that espouses nationalist ideas will be labeled as a fascist at best and a racist at worse. That's universal for anyone on the right though, but in the case of the nationalists the left might have a point for once.

All to often, the nationalists are less about protecting Americans and more about protecting certain types of Americans. Unlike the left, I won't say that it's just white people against everyone else, because anyone can be racist and there are plenty non-white nationalists that the criticisms could be applied to, some of whom are even African Americans or Hispanics. However, there is a large contingent of nationalists that really do hate Hispanics, and I just don't. I like Hispanics. I don't mind people speaking Spanish, and I think there is a huge difference between someone who is here illegally then someone who took the time to come here legally. Sure that's not most nationalists, but there are enough out there to tar the whole group. That's not fair, but nothing in politics is.

I might as well put this here, but I am not going to counter-argue against the really far right groups that are explicitly racist instead of implicitly. No need to give them any attention, and I don't really agree with them on anything anyways.

Neo-Reaction(NRx):
Neo-Reaction is an obscure and relatively new right wing movement that really doesn't have much in the way of support nationally, but I did come across it while looking for a group to belong to. For an explanation for their beliefs read Scott Alexanders description of them here. The fact that a left-libertarian had to write the most concise summery of their viewpoints isn't a good sign. Their beliefs are often too dense even for me and their best writers tend to ramble, so the post on Slate Star Codex is the best place to start if you want to learn more about them

Essentially neo-reaction states that the progressives have been in control for far too long and have ruined everything. That's not controversial at all in my mind and if that was the end of their political philosophy I would be all aboard. If anyone is to blame for the current problems we are having I'd say that it is the left. And I agree that many of the sacred cows NRx is obsessed with slaying really do need to be slaughtered, metaphorically of course.

But their solution for these problems are, quite frankly, insane. They want to go back to monarchy. Maybe not in so many words but they think the best political solution  is either a king or a dictator. There is something to be said about letting one guy deal with everything to avoid the coordination problems that modern society has, but this really only ends one way. And that's North Korea. Not a place I want to live but no one can argue that they aren't essentially what kind of leadership NRx wants.

Still, this reaction (no pun intended) is still preliminary and I haven't read too much else about them.

Why am I still on the right?
Because I despise the left? I really don't agree with them on much and when I do it is for totally different reasons. I'll use the criminal justice example again, I agree with the left that reform is needed. But they say it's because racism and I say it's because liberty. Same solution, totally different argument.

And I agree with almost all of these factions on the right about some things. The only real exception is the religious right and that has more to do with how they argue and less with what they believe. I also think that a right-libertarian is an accurate description of my beliefs, even if I bristle at the definition.

I also think that all of these factions have the potential to be right on any given issue. That's true even on the left. Even a hard core communist would be opposed to destroying Earth, for example, even though I shudder to think of what argument they would use.

And as I grow older my views can and will change. I used to be a hardcore war hawk until Barack Obama was elected and then I grew much more libertarian. I'm currently drifting away from libertarian thought and becoming less skeptical of nationalism, traditionalism and even neo-reaction. I don't think I will ever drift that far into those politician camps but anything is possible, and as times change it may become true that they will have better arguments then anyone else. Same thing with any of the other factions.

I just don't ever see myself on the left though.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Rick Perry becomes the first major candidate to drop out of the presidential race. Reuters.

Rick Perrry in Iowa. Reuters.

Rick Perry has become the first major candidate to drop out of the 2016 presidential race. Reuters. Perry had never polled well during his campaign and was always near the bottom of the polls. His campaign was doing so poorly that he had been unable to pay several staffers. This is the second time Perry has run for President. In 2012 his campaign was torpedoed by a major gaff when he was unable to remember the third government department that he was going to cut. In this race he was unable to score high enough in the polls to reach the main debate stage during the first Republican Debate. Perry tried to promote himself as a strong candidate in favor of canceling the Iran deal and working with black people, but it never panned out. 

My Comment:
About time someone dropped out of the Republican field. In my opinion there are quite a few people that should follow him. Lindsay Grahm, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Rick Santroum, and George Pataki should go away as well since none of them have a realistic chance of getting the nomination. As for the rest of the field, there are a few people that are polling pretty terribly but should stay in for now. Rand Paul probably doesn't have a chance to win, but he's about the only major libertarian candidate in the field, and he can move the Overton Window while he is running. Carly Fiorina doesn't have much of a chance either, but at least with her running they can say there is a woman on the Republican side.

As for Perry himself, I don't know why he even bothered to run. His last campaign was an utter disaster. Sure he had a strong record as a governor, but he always came across as out of touch and unprepared. The article mentioned his poor performance in one of the debates when he couldn't name one of the departments he wanted to cut. That is, to be blunt, a massive error. Though it was probably just a slip of his mind, it still destroyed his campaign. But the article forgot to mention this infamous campaign add from 2012 that turned off anyone who wasn't a hardcore social conservative. 


That add alone was enough to torpedo his chances. He was trying to appeal to evangelical Christians but he turned everyone else off and I don't think it actually helped him with evangelicals all that much. That's a strategy, by the way, that I think Republicans should avoid. Trying to appeal to religion may help get you the nomination, but it won't win you the presidency. And it wastes effort and time for the other factions of the Republican Party. Libertarians, fiscal conservatives and defense hawks don't care too much about the religious values of a candidate and since Republicans are the "Christian" party anyways you don't really need to talk about how religious you are because it is just assumed anyways. They want to hear about the issues, not about how pious the candidate is. And the general public is less receptive to a strong religious candidate as well, (which is why Hucakbee has never been a strong candidate since that's about all he talks about).

With Perry out of the race his supporters, all 1% of them, will support someone else. My guess is that they will go to one of the more religious candidates, like Hucakbee or Carson. Still, Perry had so few supporters that I doubt it will matter much in the long term. We need quite a few more people to drop out before we can have any idea who the candidate is going to be. 

Right now the protest candidates, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, are winning at the polls. Neither of them are establishment Republicans and they are blowing all the other candidates out of the water. As people start to drop out though we will find out if they are serious candidates or not. Right now the establishment vote is split between about a dozen candidates while the protest voters only have two. Once the riff raff drops out, it's very possible that they will rally to an establishment candidate like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. 

That's the theory. I'm not so sure. Right now Trump is wiping the floor with everyone and every time he opens his mouth he is telling people that he is a strong candidate that won't back down to leftist attacks. He isn't politically correct and he is talking about an issue, illegal immigration, that everyone else ignored. Carson also seems to have the evangelicals locked up, leaving little room for other social conservatives. My guess is that as the other candidates drop out most support will go to Trump, Carson and one establishment candidate. The establishment candidate will probably get more support from the party, but in the end, I don't see any of them taking away momentum from Trump. 

Honestly, I think Trump is going to be the candidate. He has just been very strong and has withstood every attack against him. He also has broad appeal and is a very good attack dog as well. In order for him to lose he would have to have some kind of major gaffe and I just don't see that happening. Technically he has had dozens of gaffes, but they just don't seem to affect him. And I think he probably has a better chance at winning against the Democratic candidate. 

Speaking of the Democrats, I have no idea who is going to win that race. Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be tanking yet again, but at this point the only other viable candidate is Bernie Sanders and he is a literal socialist. He won't get widespread support and I consider him un-electable after he was embarrassed by black lives matters. Joe Biden is the only other viable candidate and he might not even run. If that's the best the Democrats can put up, then the Republicans should just win no matter who the candidate is. That was probably going to happen anyways since we seem to be in a pattern of alternating 8 year terms for Republicans and Democrats. 

Thursday, September 10, 2015

ISIS demands ransom for a Norwegian and a Chinese hostage. LA Times.

Norwegian hostage Ole Johan Grimsgaard and Chinese hostage Fan Jinghui. LA Times/ISIS photo.

ISIS claims to be holding two hostages, one from Norway and one from China, and are offering them up for ransom. LA Times. The two men, Ole Johan Grimsgaard and Fan Jinghui had their pictures posted in ISIS's online magazine, Dabiq, claiming the men were "for sale". ISIS accused both Norway and China of abandoning the men by not paying their ransom. ISIS has shifted focus recently to China due to their actions against their Uighuir Muslim minority. Many Uighuir have fled from China to join ISIS in their fight in Iraq and Syria. China has never paid for hostages so it is unlikely that Jinghui's ransom will be paid by the government, though it is possible that it could be paid by civilians. Fan Jinghui is an advertising freelancer who had talked about taking a "risky path". 

Grimsgaard was captured last January. According to the New York times, he was obsessed with the Middle East and made regular post about the conflict in Syria and Iraq. The Norwegian government condemns the hostage taking and will not pay a ransom for Grimsgaard. His last post on Facebook claimed that he was in Idlib.

My Comment:
Of course I hope that these men are released safely. But what on earth were they doing in Syria where ISIS could capture them? These men don't appear to be soldiers, journalists or even aid workers. So what were they doing in Syria? Grimsgaard seemed to be obsessed by ISIS, but you could say the same thing about me but I sure as hell am not going to Syria anytime soon. And neither of these men were young guys doing something stupid. They are about 50 years old, old enough to know better. Perhaps their motivations will be reviled soon, but for now, it doesn't make much sense to me.

Of course, I don't have much hope that these men will be released. I am not sure how much ISIS wants for them, but it's too much for the families of these men to pay. Neither Norway or China will pay for these hostages and I don't see either of them conducting some kind of commando raid to release them, assuming they could find them in the first place. The only hope is for a U.S. or other local power to conduct a raid, otherwise these men are most likely doomed. We have seen what ISIS has done to its hostages before...

As for China, the LA Times article is right. They have a major Islamic insurgency in their Xinjaing province. The Uighuirs have conducted many terror attacks against China and are suspected in the bombing in Thailand recently. They have rioted, murdered and bombed and there is no sign they are stopping anytime soon. Of course China has their own role in creating this mess. They have always treated the Uighuirs as second class citizens, so a revolt isn't that surprising.

What is surprising is how little coverage the insurgency gets in western media. Part of it is due to isolation. China makes sure that foreign journalists can't get to the region so almost everything we hear about Xinjaing and the Uighuirs comes from China. My guess is that ISIS will execute Jinghui to gather attention to the war in Xinjaing because it is even obscure in Islamist circles. 

ISIS has a hell of a butchers bill to account for. Though they have mostly killed Syrians and Iraqis, they have killed many foreign nationals. None of these people deserved to die they way they did and I am hoping that ISIS will someday face justice for what they have done.

Finally, tomorrow is 9/11, the 14th anniversary of the attacks. I'm expecting something to go down. There is a chance that it will be a terror attack, but if not, I expect these two men to die. Symbolism is important for ISIS and I think they will want to do something for the anniversary. I don't know if they have the agents in place to attack America directly, but there are rumors of terrorists infiltrating EU among the huge wave of refugees that are swamping the continent. Hopefully I am wrong and nothing will happen but you never know... 

I have to say, I am disappointed in the western media for covering this story. I heard about this story last night but I did not really see a comprehensive post from any news outlet. It took me a long time to find any information about Jinghui at all until I found the LA Times article and that article had next to no information about Grimsgaard. Much like the execution of  Tomislav Salopek, the Croatian national killed in Egypt, the media seems to be asleep here. I think it might be because the hostages were not Americans or Brits, but they did cover it when ISIS executed Japanese citizens, so who knows what is going on.    

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Editor's note. Bad day.

Not a good day today so no post. Had to fix my car because my brakes went bad. That took a lot of the day and the rest of it was spent being sick. Cost quite a bit to fix the thing. Didn't get any sleep and I had a busy night at work last night. In short I'm exhausted so no posts for now. Hopefully things will return to normal tomorrow.