I couldn't think of any thing to post this morning so...

...here's a Johnny Cash song. It doesn't have much to do with the subject of this blog but i was listening to it when i wrote my last post...

Things are falling apart. Even the New York Times thinks so.

The four horsemen. Conquest, War, Famine and Death. Via Wikipedia.

I can summarize this one in a phrase. The world sucks right now. In the op-ed piece in the New York Times, Roger Cohen reviews all the things going wrong this year. Included are the battle against ISIS, Russia's ascendancy, the possible break-up of the United Kingdom, the weakness of the United States and her president, prejudice and hate and finally Ebola. 

My Comment:

A good op-ed piece, again from the New York Times. It reflects my own thinking. I'd add more then a few things though. The economy is still weak and I wouldn't be too surprised if one of the dozen or so world crisis's brought it to its knees. China's expansionist behavior wasn't discussed either. And he understates the threat from both radical Islam and Ebola. And even though he touched on how horrible governments are treating their people right now, he really should have mentioned the NSA. 

Still, these are indeed dark times. If you follow the news as close as I do it's hard to avoid apocalyptic thinking. I can't think of a time in my life where people were more pessimistic, more scared and more crazy then today. Even the darkest days after 9/11 were more hopeful, because at least then we had leadership and unity. The United States is so divided now that it almost seems like a 2nd Civil War is possible. Our government is corrupt and inept, the world is on fire and nobody seems to be able to do anything about it. Even our entertainment industry and sports teams are riddled with scandals and abuse. 

But it's important to note that every generation has thought they were the last. Every generation has been wrong. Humanity has faced worse challenges and survived. Both world wars, the Cold War, the Spanish Flu, all of those happened in the past century and we survived them all. And to be fair all of them were, at the very least, worse then what we are going through now, for the time being at least. It's important to keep things in perspective. 

Calls for urgent action against Ebola, the mathematics of the situation are not looking good at all. -Wired

Chart showing the growth of the virus. Wired/Eurosurveillance 

The mathematics of the Ebola outbreak paint a grim picture and international response is needed to prevent a disaster. -Wired. Scientists have tried to determine the so called reproductive number for Ebola in a new study published in Eurosurveillance (the EU's CDC). The R0 number is a measure of how many people each infected person infects on average. If the R number is less then one then the disease will die out. Unfortunately the R0 number is at the very least one and in many cases it is as high as two. So for every infected patient at least one more person will get sick and it's possible that two will on average. Using these numbers Scientists estimate that there will be between 77,000 and 270,000 cases by the end of the year. Other scientists have  discussed the possibility of the virus going airborne, which, due to the high rate of infection and unprecedented size of the outbreak, is higher then ever. Both reports recommend a massive international response involving the United States and other governments armies. 

My Comment:

I already discussed the possibility of Ebola going airborne in this post. To recap, it's certainly possible and if it happens that's pretty much the end of everything. We might survive as a species, but there wouldn't be all that many of us left. As for the estimates, I tend to believe them. If anything they are conservative. The raw number of cases per month has been roughly doubling and the rate for Liberia is just insane. At the beginning of August they had 468 cases but by the end of the month hey had 1698, more then tripling the number of cases. The numbers are incredibly grim and I'm officially predicting the breakdown of civil society in Liberia, at the very least, before the end of the year. 

The situation is dire but is the world going to do what it takes to prevent this? At this point it might be too late. The time for a massive military and political response was a couple of months ago. It's just too widespread now, especially in Liberia. When ever they open a new clinic it's full by the end of the day and people are driving around in taxis desperately trying to find help, and spreading the disease. The only way I see stopping the virus is to completely quarantine effected areas. Liberia tried that in the West Point slum. It failed after the civilians there rioted and broke the quarantine. Some people got shot and they still fled. The government then just gave up and let the people roam free. The situation is totally out of control and only an massive effort, with military as well as medical resources, might make a difference. Either that or a lucky random mutation that makes the disease either less deadly or infectious. We can't rely on that so the world needs to wake up and do something.

As someone in a living in a first world country with a decent medical system, I've upgraded my "alert level" for this disease. I'm seriously considering buying supplies, not so much from fear of the disease itself but for the impact it will have in the world. Should the virus make it out of Africa there will be huge economic and political consequences. Food shortages, job losses, trade and travel restrictions, widespread civil unrest, all of it could be coming. I'm not 100% sure that it will happen but the chances are getting better everyday. Of course if the virus does go airborne, none of it will matter because my line of work is probably at a higher risk of infection then for other professions. I'll either die right away or survive only to see the world burn around me. 

A British civilian was beheaded by ISIS, Prime Minster Cameron vows to bring the killers to justice. BBC News

Screengrab from the video. BBC News

Yet another civilian, this time a British citizen, has been beheaded by ISIS. -BBC News. David Haines, a 44 year old aid worker who had volunteered to go to Syria to help refugees, was executed on video by an ISIS militant. Prime Minster Cameron condemned the murder and vowed to do everything in his power to bring the killers to justice. In an almost certainly coerced statement, Haines blamed Cameron and the United States for his execution. The unidentified man in the video said the murder was in response to Britain donating machine guns to the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in the north of Iraq. The execution comes after the murder of two American journalists, Steven Sotloff and James Foley. ISIS is threatening another British citizen with execution. 

My Comment:

Yet another senseless killing. ISIS is so evil that they see nothing wrong with killing a truly innocent man who only went to Syria to help people. Of course it's not all that much worse then the  recent execution of the two American journalists as well. Still, ISIS is pure evil and this is just another atrocity they are guilty of. My thoughts are with Haines family and friends. 

In a purely strategic sense, these killings make no sense. The murder of Foley and Sotloff galvanized a war-wear American public and now a majority support airstrikes against ISIS. Think about that for a second. These executions were so disturbing to the American public that they are in favor of going back to Iraq, one of the most unpopular wars in American history. Sure the genocide of Yezidi and Christians in Iraq woke people up too but hearing about these executions must have changed some minds. I'm sure a ton of people watched these videos as well. I haven't myself since I have no real desire to see men get killed horribly, but I imagine that almost everyone that watched them were angered and disgusted. I'm sure the people of Britain are going through the same thing right now that Americans have been going through. They might change their opinion on war and the British government may even face some pressure to do something. 

Pope Francis says that for all intents and purposes World War III has broken out. -Reuters.

Pope Francis at a war memorial in Italy. -Reuters.

Pope Francis says that the constant strife and warfare we are currently experiencing are the equivalent of World War III. -Reuters. The Pope has been very vocal in his disapproval of the violence in Ukraine, the Middle East and parts of Africa. The Pope also condemned "plotters of terrorism" but did not elaborate on who he meant. In a rare reversal, last month the Pope said war could be justified to prevent the genocide of Iraqi and Syrian Christians, and other religious minorities, committed by ISIS. The Pope gave today's comments at the largest war memorial and cemetery for Italy's dead from World War I. 

My Comment:

I first talked about the Pope's reaction to ISIS here. What's my take on his comments? If anything he is understating the case. The war against radical Islam is a global one and it has lasted for longer then both World War I and World War II combined. Yes, it's not a total war, as of yet, and yes it hasn't reached anywhere near the casualties the other two did, but in terms of geopolitical impact it's getting closer to matching them every day. 

As for the Pope himself, I'm glad he is pointing this out. He has a captive audience of hundreds of millions and bringing attention to the state of the world is a good thing for him to do for his followers. I say that as a non-Catholic. I don't agree with everything the Pope does, or even most, but in this case he's right. The world needs to wake up to what is really going on, and the more people that know it's a global war almost as bad as the two world wars the better.

EDIT: Credit where credit is due, i first saw the story here.