Why is Donald Trump holding a rally in California?

 

Donald Trump at this weekend rally in Butler Pennsylvania. Patch/AP.

Donald Trump is holding a rally in Coachella California this weekend. Patch. Though California is not generally considered a swing state, Trump has visited the state recently, though that was for fundraisers this summer. Trump is expected to paint a dark picture of the state given the connections Kamala Harris has to the state. Harris was a senator for the state before being picked as Joe Biden's VP candidate. It is unclear what politicians will show up to the rally, though the local mayor will not attend as he is not a fan of Trump. 

My Comment:

Coachella is an odd place to hold a Trump rally. California is obviously not a swing state as it has pretty reliably gone for Democrats for my entire lifetime. Though it's possible that Trump could indeed flip a traditional blue state, like Minnesota or New Jersey, it seem pretty much impossible for Trump to take California. 

So why on earth is he spending time here instead of in critical Midwest swing states? Well it seems pretty obvious that this is a play for the House. Though California is a blue state, thanks to the big cities, there are wide swaths of it that are fairly conservative. A major rally in this part of the state is a good way to get out the vote for these house districts that Trump will need if he wants to keep ahold of the House. There is a contested Senate election but "Shifty" Adam Schiff has a very comfortable lead, and the GOP candidate, Steve Garvey, is no fan of Trump, so I doubt that's a concern. Trump has done something similar with the race in Montana, a safe red state with a Democratic Senator up for re-election, but that's not what is going on here. This is about the house

Still, in what is supposedly a close election, shoring up the House in California seems like a dumb move on the surface. After all, why do this when you could be shoring up the critical swing states in the Midwest, like Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania? Trump has hit those states pretty hard so perhaps he is at the point of diminishing returns? Nevada is in play and Coachella is at least in driving distance from Nevada, but I doubt that many people will make the drive

But the other possibility is that this is a statement of confidence. There are pretty strong hints that the election isn't actually that  close and Trump going to California is a very good sign. You don't shore up your support for the House if you are losing, at least that is the theory. It's similar to the events Trump did earlier in the race in New York and New Jersey, neither state is likely to flip (though it's at least a possibility in New Jersey) but if Trump was behind he would have never did it. 

After all, what are we seeing from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz? Are they doing rallies in traditional red states? Absolutely not. Indeed, Harris, who has been famous for the entire race for not doing interviews, is doing an absolute ton of them in friendly environments. It's clear that she is changing her strategy on the fly. She thought she could just hide from the media for the entire race like Joe Biden did in 2020 but it certainly doesn't look like she can afford to do that now. And what other reason would she have for doing so? 

Keep in mind the news for Kamala Harris has not been good. She's come under withering fire for her response for Hurricane Helene and I doubt she will handle Hurricane Milton any better. Her running mate, Tim Walz, got defeated at the debate in pretty spectacular fashion. And there are even rumors that Joe Biden is actively working against her at this point out of revenge for being pushed off the ticket. Why else would Biden schedule his first press conference basically ever during a major Harris speech? And who can forget this image? 

The Trump campaign seems confident in victory while the Harris campaign seems to be in trouble. I can't imagine that Trump would ever visit California for a rally if he thought that he was going to lose, outside of fundraising. It's also why I think Ron DeSantis didn't take a phone call from Harris and why world leaders and tech moguls like Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are cozying up to Trump. It's not conclusive to be sure but it does seem like Trump is more likely to win in November than Harris and a lot of people apparently can see it. 

Hurricane Milton grows in strength and is projected to hit Tampa Bay in Florida...

 

Hurricane Milton forming off the coast of Mexico. AP/NOAA.

Hurricane Milton has grown in strength and is projected to hit Florida in the wake of Hurricane Helene. AP. The new Hurricane formed off of Mexico and is expected to make landfall near Tampa Bay. It is expected that the storm will miss most areas devastated by Hurricane Helene, but it is expected to cross central Florida as a hurricane and hit areas in Florida that took damage in the first storm. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has issued evacuation orders and has ordered crews that were in Appalachia helping with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene back to Florida. 

My Comment:

This is obviously unwelcome news as America is still reeling from the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. The last thing we need is another major hurricane but it sure looks like one is happening. The only question now is how bad is it going to be. From what I understand they storm is predicted to be somewhere between a relatively mild Category 2 storm or a extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. 

How bad the storm will be will depend on where it lands. From what it sounds like the storm is supposed to hit Tampa Bay directly, which is obviously not good, but not the absolute worst scenario, which would be if it landed to the north of the city, which would mean the worst storm surge would hit the city. It's possible it could land to the south of the city or even go further south, though that seems unlikely. 

The good news is that it isn't going north into Appalachia. That was never likely but if it were to happen it would be absolutely devastating to a region that has already been massively damaged by Hurricane Helene. It's going to hit Florida, which is well prepared for storms and led by Governor Ron DeSantis, who is a good leader during storms. 

The real problem is that the federal response is going to be a major problem. FEMA has already failed in North Carolina, to the point where nobody is going to buy the feeble defense AP made for the organization in the source article. Just last week I wrote about how FEMA was whining about not having enough money for the next major storm, and lo and behold, another big storm is about to hit. FEMA resources are stretched thin already and there is a major problem with competence so I am not expecting their response to this storm to be very good. 

Hurricane Milton is likely to draw some resources away from the recovery from Hurricane Helene. Indeed, it already has as Governor DeSantis was forced to pull his teams out of North Carolina and deploy them back home. Given that there are still people in North Carolina that need to be rescued, this is a very big problem. Not to mention all the efforts to repair infrastructure and recover bodies. 

It will be interesting to see how Biden and Harris react to this storm. The response to Helene was embarrassing to the point that it absolutely damaged the reputation of both politicians. They did not act like they cared at all about the victims of the storm. Will they make the same mistake twice? It's very possible, I don't think of competence when I think of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and I doubt they will have a good response to the Hurricane. Donald Trump though? He's absolutely going to be there.

Feds say there is not enough funds for FEMA disaster relief despite spending more than $1 billion on housing illegal immigrants in the past two years.

 

Damage in Chimney Rock North Carolina from Hurricane Helene. New York Post/AFP/Getty.

The Federal Government says there is not enough funds in FEMA to deal with further hurricanes despite spending more than $1 billion on housing for illegal immigrants. New York Post. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said that though they had the funds to deal with Hurricane Helene, they would not have the funds to deal with another hurricane, which is very possible before the end of the year. However, FEMA has spent $1.4 billion on housing aid for illegal immigrants. The government claims that those funds can not be used for disaster aid, but that has not quelled critics who say the money should go to American citizens displaced, injured or killed in Hurricane Helene. The victims of the hurricane have gotten comparatively little aid, with $4 million being allocated for victims to get $750 for groceries. 

My Comment:

I think there is real anger about the response to Hurricane Helene. The general feeling is that the government could not care less about the victims of this hurricane and the reason why is that they are mostly Republican white folks. Obviously, that's not entirely true, Asheville, the biggest city to get hit, is a Blue bastion in a sea of Red counties and towns, but it sure seems like the response to this Hurricane is dramatically worse than other similar disasters. 

It does not help that the folks in North Carolina are not getting much in the way of aid. The $750 for groceries is a joke when illegal immigrants are getting $1.4 billion over two years just for being in the country. In a sane world those folks would not even be in this country and all of that money would go to American citizens who lost everything. 

To be fair, it's not like the funds can be easily moved from illegal immigration to FEMA disaster relief. That would take an act of congress or some kind of presidential order. Congress isn't in session until after the election and Biden's barely a president. Even if he wanted to, I don't think Biden is capable of doing much of anything at this point. It's possible that Congress will reconvene in an emergency session and either redirect these funds or authorize new ones but unless we get hit by another hurricane I doubt that will happen. 

Regardless, it sure feels like these folks are getting left behind, even without the rumors on the ground of FEMA largely being absent and even preventing aid from getting in. Certainly there have been bad reactions to storms before but the fact that it took a week for Biden to even show up is greatly contributing to the idea that they simply don't care about these people. 

And it's not like the government isn't wasting their money on other things than illegal immigration. We have given Ukraine and Israel billions of dollars for reasons that are hard to explain. The money we have given to Ukraine alone could have been used to not only give the folks affected by this storm a new start on life, but it could have easily paid to repair the damage the storm has caused to local infrastructure. But that money was sent to Ukraine so they can delay the inevitable outcome of the war. It's absurd. 

It has to be said that it's even worse that this money is going to illegal immigrants. These folks broke our laws for the most part and are only being brought into America to undercut American workers and to increase the cost of housing. The only money that should be spent on illegal immigrants is the cost of a plane ticket to a country of their choice. Putting our country into debt for these folks is insane... 

Russia takes Vuhledar in another victory in Ukraine.

 

Vuhledar Ukraine in August of 2024. NBC News/Getty. 

Russia has taken yet another town in Ukraine, this time the bastion of Vuhledar in Eastern Ukraine. NBC News. Vuhledar had held out since the beginning of the Russian phase of the war back in 2022. But Russia has been steadily advancing across the entire front with Ukraine as the war moves away from the grinding attritional warfare that had defined it. Ukraine ordered the last unit in the hilltop mining town, the 72 Mechanized Brigade, to retreat so they would not be encircled. Though Russia has not mentioned the victory in its dispatches, videos on Telegram show Russian soldiers raising the Russian flag in the city. Russia was planning on encircling the city, using the "cauldron" tactics they have used throughout the war. Russia's advances have captured 80% of Donbass, which is their war goal, with 98.5% of Luhansk and 60% of Donetsk. 

My Comment:

The Russian advances in Ukraine have largely flown under the radar recently. This is forgivable given how so many huge stories have broken in the past few weeks. It's hard to compete with a devastating hurricane, a major war breaking out in the middle east, a huge strike in the United States and one of the more memorable debates we have seen in recent history. 

But the story is pretty important. Russia is pushing back Ukraine all across the front, even in the Kursk incursion to Russia. Vuhledar is hardly the only city to fall to Russia recently, it's just the one the news is covering right now. It's just another example of the war shifting into Russia's favor. 

Vuhledar is a strategically important town. Ukraine had held on to it since the war began and there had been heavy fighting there for the entire time. Losing it is an embarrassment for them and it shows how desperate the situation was there. Looking at the map of the area, it seems clear that Russia should be able to take quite a bit of territory. They should be able to easily move north to cut off the H-15 highway and start another cauldron in the area. They can also threaten the city of Velyka Novasilka to the west. There just doesn't look like there are any defenses in the region.

The problem for Ukraine is that they are seeing similar problems across the front. Russia has figured out how to fight them and the decisions Ukraine has made. It's clear that their attack into Russia was a huge mistake. They simply don't have the reserves to throw into these battles and can't properly defend the cities they still hold. If they had some of those reserve forces that they used in the Kharkov region they could have at least tried to end the encirclement of the city. But instead those troops and vehicles were wasted in an offensive that has accomplished almost nothing. 

I wrote about Trump's meeting with Zelensky that it's very possible that by the time Trump takes office any negotiation about ending the war could be moot because of Russian victories on the battlefield. And I still think that is very possible. Russia has a massive advantage in manpower, weapons and morale while Ukraine barely has enough troops to man the front lines. And the troops they do have? They are low quality, poorly trained conscripts. And many of them are old men who can barely fight. Indeed, I do think that Ukraine is no longer capable of major offensive operations. I could be wrong about that but I do think that the Kharkov operation was the last hurrah. 

Of course, Ukraine does still have major forces and I also don't think a general collapse is an immediate fear. Their army is in a steady decline but they are still well armed and have a lot of bodies. They can make the war drag out for a time. The question is how long? Will it be weeks? Months? Perhaps even years? With more and more cities falling to Russia I think the middle option is the most likely. They can hold out for awhile but I think the war will probably end one way or the other next year... 

Iran launched 180 missiles at Israel raising fears of a major regional war.

 

Iranian missiles falling on Israel. AP. 

Iran has launched 180 missiles at Israel raising fears of a major regional war. AP. Missiles fell all over Israel while civilians fled to bomb shelters. The attacks appear to have been ineffective, causing only a few injuries. Israel has been attacking Hezbollah recently and the attacks against Israel appear to be a response to Israel doing major damage to the terror group. Israel has vowed retaliation against Iran and have continued to bomb Hezbollah in Lebanon with minor forces having crossed the border already. Israel said most missiles were intercepted by their Iron Dome system. One Palestinian man was killed in the raid as a missile fell short of Israel and hit the West Bank instead. The US said they helped Israel by shooting some of the missiles down. 

The following news outlets have live updates about this story.

AP

CNN

Fox News

My Comment:

There had been hopes that a  2nd  round of missile strikes against Israel would have been avoided. There was fears over summer that this exact thing would happen but in the end cooler heads prevailed. So what has changed? 

Obviously this is blowback for Israel's recent actions against Hezbollah. The pager, radio attacks and the decapitation strikes against Hezbollah was not going to go unanswered. Hezbollah is Iran's proxy army and the utter defeat that Hezbollah suffered in the initial stages of this war had to have a response or Iran was going to lose a tremendous amount of face. 

The missiles appear to have been ineffective. Many of these missiles were shot down and the ones that weren't didn't hit anything important. Supposedly, people on social media are saying that a missile hit near the Mossad headquarters but no actual damage was done. 

Regardless though, it seems unlikely that Israel will not send a response of their own, possibly targeting Iran's nuclear plants and research. If they don't strike they will be the ones that lose face, so they will almost certainly strike back. And then Iran has threatened to respond to the response and could even target oil production facilities in neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia, drawing them into the war as well. 

America could also be drawn into the war. Our ships were trying to intercept some of these missiles and we are still deeply engaged with the Houthis in Yemen. It's very possible that our ships and bases in the Middle East could come under attack in the tit-for-tat conflict that appears to be coming. Such a war would be unpopular to say the least. 

Of an even greater concern is the fact that both Iran and Hezbollah have sleeper cells here in America and across Europe. We already know that Iran has a team here in the United States with a goal of assassinating Donald Trump, they might make the attempt now. And Trump is hardly the only person at risk. Other politicians are as well and that's not to mention the threat to civilians. If an attack on our ships didn't draw us into the war, an assassination or terror attack would certainly do so. 

Is there any hope of a wider war being avoided? Possibly. War looked inevitable over the summer but it was avoided for at least a time. Something similar could happen here. But the problem is that it's going to be up to Iran and Israel. The Biden administration didn't have any pull in either country before Biden was exposed as being senile, now neither side will listen to him. Perhaps Russia or China could step up and cut a deal so both sides don't kill each other, but I am not hopeful. 

This, of course, has election implications. There is yet another October Surprise in a year that has had two already, the poor response to Hurricane Helene and the brand new longshoreman strike (which I was going to cover tonight before the strikes happened). I am guessing the anti-Israel faction of the Democrats are going to be furious that Harris has vowed to support Israel in their wars against Hezbollah and Iran. And nobody is going to be happy that a major war is breaking out when they can clearly remember that the world was dramatically more peaceful under Donald Trump... 

As for Israel, I do fear that they are overextending themselves. They are still fighting Hamas in Gaza and are now launching an invasion against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And the Houthi rebels in Yemen are fighting them as well. Can they really deal with all that on their own while also conducting a war against Iran? They could be in trouble here...