Houthi rebels launch widespread attacks against Saudi oil facilities.

 

Fires burn in the city of Sanaa, Yemen after the Saudis counterattacked. Reuters.

Houthi rebels in Yemen have launched widespread attacks against Saudi Arabian oil facilities. Reuters. The Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones against targets in Ras Tanruna, where the world's largest oil facility is located, as well as the cities of Damman, Asir and Jazan. The Saudis claimed that they shot down the Houthi drones and the damage from the ballistic missiles was minimal. The Houthis claim the attack consisted of eight ballistic missiles and used 14 drones in the attack. The Saudis bombed targets in Yemen in response to the attacks. The Houthis have become more bold after Joe Biden removed the terrorist label from them, which had been placed by President Trump. 

My Comment:

Ugh, as if gas prices weren't high enough already. Joe Biden has already done a ton to destroy American energy independence. I get the feeling a lot of people never even realized that America WAS energy independent under President Trump. But thanks to Biden we are now dependent on foreign oil again, and that means attacks like these will cause an increase in prices. 

This will remain the case even though it appears that these attacks did little damage. Unlike the 2019 attack that devastated Saudi Arabia's oil production, this attack seems to have been largely prevented with the drones being shot down. The ballistic missiles did some damage but did not destroy much. The problem is that the instability will spook the markets and cause the price of oil and gasoline to go up. 

I do have to say that if the Saudis are right and they shot down all the drones it is a major improvement. The Saudis had major problems with that in 2019. My guess is that they now knew the tactic and developed countermeasures against it. My guess is that they were able to detect these drones and shoot them down, either with ground to air missiles or intercepted them with airplanes. 

It seems pretty clear that the Iranians are off the leash now and are taking advantage of American weakness. Joe Biden has made it very clear that he supports Iran over the Saudis even though the Iranians are targeting US targets in Iraq along with their proxies in Yemen attacking Saudi Arabia. They know that there will be no consequences for their actions and that the Biden administration hates the gulf states. 

With the go ahead from the Biden administration and the Houthis no longer called terrorists it means Iran can continue their proxy war against the Saudis. This will result in higher prices for oil and gas and will continue the massive amount of human suffering in Yemen. 

So will things get worse? I am not sure. It seems clear that the missile and drone strike plan by the Houthis are not as effective as they were a couple of years ago. But the Houthis have state backing and may come up with new plans to hit Saudi Arabia. And it's clear that the Saudis have been left out to dry by the United States. I think things will probably get worse and there is a chance the whole thing turns into open warfare...

Influenza season incredibly mild with the CDC only reporting one death of a child from the virus.

 

NHCOA

The CDC reports an extremely mild flu season with very few positive tests and only one child dying of the virus thanks to preventative measures against the Coronavirus. The Hill. In a normal year 20 to 30% of tests come back positive for the flu but in this season only 0.1% are, an extreme drop. And the virus usually kills 22,000 people per season but this year only 450 have died with the stats for children being even better. In a normal year around 195 children die but this year only one has done so. Experts credit Coronavirus precautions, such as hand washing, masks, remote work and schooling and the high number of people that took the vaccine this season. However, there are fears that the next flu season will be much worse than normal due to few people being exposed this season. 

My Comment:

I have to say that I agree with this report. Though the measures against the Coronavirus may not actually be effective in fighting the disease I do think that they are extremely effective at fighting the cold and the flu. I almost always get at least one cold every year and I tend to get the actual flu virus every couple of years as well. Since the Coronavirus precautions went into place I have not gotten sick with respiratory symptoms at all, not counting my allergies. That is the first time I can say that has ever happened as I almost always get at least one cold every year. 

I think the flu shot push helped a lot this year. I usually skip the flu shot largely out of convivence but this year they were having the shot right at work at a time when it was extremely easy for me to take. I had a bad reaction but regardless the push got me vaccinated at least. And I think a lot of other people who would otherwise not get the shot did so. Part of it was the fact that people didn't want the anxiety of having to wonder when they got sick if it was the flu or the Coronavirus. 

I think the handwashing push was a big part of it as well, which was funny as it doesn't seem to have affected the spread of the virus. From what I understand fomite transmission is fairly rare for Coronavirus but it's very common for influenza, so by trying and failing to protect themselves from one virus they may have done so for the other. 

Should we be worried about a bad wave of flu next winter when the Coronavirus is presumably going to be gone or a minor issue? Maybe. I think some of the changes from the virus will stick around, with people more likely to wash their hands and wear masks if they are sick. And with more people staying home they will also be less likely to infect people, as the work from home craze seems like a more permanent change. 

And I also don't think the virus will be that much worse than in previous years in terms of deadliness. Most people get the flu every couple of years or so, and that means they will still have immunity built up. People will also take the vaccine, with the developments from the Coronavirus vaccine perhaps being used to create more effective ones. 

I know some people have said that it's possible that the influenza virus might go extinct. I don't think that is likely at all. After all the flu has non-human hosts as well and they aren't taking any precautions. Once we stop our precautions for Coronavirus I am expecting the virus will come back, though not any more dangerous than it was before. 

Another rocket attack hits Iraqi airbase, one contractor dead.

 

File photo of Ain al-Asad airbase. Reuters. 

Another rocket attack has hit an Iraqi airbase and one contractor died at the scene. Reuters. No US troops were injured in the attack but the contractors was an American citizen and died of heart attack. Ten rockets hit the airbase, which was targeted by Iran during a ballistic missile strike last year. It has not been determined who launched the attack but Iranian backed militias are the prime suspects. The attack comes after Joe Biden launched an attack in Syria targeting Iranian militias in retaliation for another rocket attack. 

My Comment:

Ugh, something tells me that the Biden administration will use this as an excuse to launch further strikes in Syria... even though the attack was carried out in Iraq by Iraqi militias. I have zero faith in Biden's ability to restrain himself and I am guessing the neoliberals in his administration are salivating at the thought at bombing Syria again. 

I obviously don't think that a retaliation strike is justified. The rocket attack didn't kill anyone directly. There was a death but it's the kind of death that probably would have happened regardless. Sometimes a contractor has a bad heart and if they do they can die. Sure, the attackers were trying to kill people but I just see zero interest in bombing third parties that had little to do with the attack. 

If there is a response it should be limited to the militia responsible and limited to strikes within Iraq. I don't even think that is necessary but if they are going to be launched it should be launched against the people that actually did the attack. We don't need to bomb Syria again. 

Honestly, I don't understand why we still have troops in Iraq in the first place. We should have withdrawn a long time ago. Our main purpose in being there was fighting ISIS and ISIS is mostly gone. I know that Biden wants bomb Iran and Syria but that's no excuse for keeping troops in Iraq. 

I also think that it is way past time for Iraq to stand on their own. We have given them billions of dollars and built and rebuilt their army after ISIS left it destroyed. We have done everything we can to allow them to stand on their own and right now we shouldn't be fighting their battles anymore. If they want to fight these Iranian militias then they should go ahead and do so.

But I am guessing that the attack wouldn't even happen if American troops weren't still in Iraq. Not to justify Iranian attacks but if we weren't there they would have to try and hit other targets or simply let things lay. The Iranians want us out of Iraq for their own reasons and if we aren't there they wouldn't be attacking us most likely. They would probably be focusing on Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

I have to say that I am extremely disappointed in the foreign policy of the Biden administration. I feel that they will use these minor rocket attacks as a pretext to war with Iran. And if they don't, they will probably go back into the Iran nuclear deal... which will probably lead to a war with Israel and/or Saudi Arabia. Under President Trump there probably would have been a status quo ante... 

Texas and Mississippi lift mask mandates, open businesses.

 

Texas governor Gregg Abbott. ABC News/Getty.

The governors of Texas and Mississippi have lifted mask mandates in their states and also allowed businesses to open at 100% capacity. ABC News. In Texas, Govenor Abbott said that state mandates are no longer needed due to vaccinations and recoveries. His order does offer an exception that would allow counties to bring back restrictions if hospitalization rates exceed 15% capacity for seven days. Mississippi also followed suit, with Governor Tate Reeves saying that it is justified by lower infection rates and higher rates of vaccination. National health authorities said it was too early to lift mandates. 

My Comment:

A lot of people are praising Governors Abbott and Tate for this but I am not one of them. Though I do agree that this move is long overdue I don't think they should get too much credit for only doing this now. Florida opened awhile ago and other states, like South Dakota and Georgia, never really locked down long term. 

Does that mean I hate masks and won't take precautions against the virus? Of course not. I wear a mask wherever it is required and I don't have a problem if people want me to wear a mask if I visit. I think it is mostly security theater but it might have some small effect. I've also avoided large gatherings of people, but that has more to do with my personality than anything else. 

But what I have a problem with is the government telling everyone what to do. I think people should have the choice on what they want to do. I know a lot of people are uncomfortable with masks and others don't think the risk is worth it. And people should have the right to have their businesses open even if there is a risk.  

I also don't think that lockdowns were ever the right answer. I do think that people should take precautions but I think the right answer was to protect the people that were most vulnerable. Keep people in old folks home safe and those with medical risks but let other people get sick. The vast majority of them would have been fine. Lockdowns probably didn't save any lives but it did massive damage to the economy. 

A lot of people on Twitter are complaining about this but to them I would say this. If you really want to keep wearing a mask, nobody is going to stop you. If you don't want to go to a restaurant or bar, no one is going to force you to do so. Indeed, if you want to stay in your house for the rest of your life you can. That's fine but I think it's long past time that everyone else is allowed to live their lives as they please. 

And with the vaccines out now there isn't much of a point in keeping restrictions. From what I can tell the most vulnerable people are pretty much vaccinated now. The three vaccines protect against the virus and even people that get it won't be seriously ill. The number of people that will die from the disease will now collapse so at this point it's not really a threat. 

So will other states follow suit? I think red states might. But blue states? I have no idea. It seems a lot of these governors love the power that the virus gave them and aren't going to give it up easily. Thankfully the governors of California and New York are being recalled and are mired in scandal, so they may have no choice. But I worry about people like Michigan's Governor Whitmer and my state, Wisconsin, Governor Evers. Whitmer seems to have an absolute lust for this kind of power and I doubt she will give it up unless the Democrats change their tune on lockdowns... 

Will China invade Taiwan?

 

Chinese troops stand in front of a picture of President Xi. Roll Call/Getty.

A panel of experts testified before congress that China may invade Taiwan in the next five years. Roll Call. Previously, experts believed that the only likely way for war to break out was if Taiwan were to formally declare independence from China. Though Taiwan has been de-facto independent since the Communist revolution it has not declared independence. However, the modernization of the Chinese military, the weakness of the United States coalition and the ambition of President Xi may make war much more likely. Xi is probably waiting for an opportune time before striking. Though the Trump administration had made efforts to increase ties to Taiwan it's unclear how effective those efforts will be in deterring China from attacking. 

My Comment:

I think that this analysis is pretty optimistic in terms of China's abilities to actually invade Taiwan. An amphibious invasion is one of the most difficult military operations a country can undertake and that was true years ago. In a modern military environment it is even more difficult.

I don't think China has the Navy to actually take Taiwan. Though they have modernized their navy and even have an aircraft carrier. But what they really need is transport ships and I don't think they have enough. And that's assuming that other regional powers don't join Taiwan in their defense of their island. 

I also think that China will largely be a paper tiger. They haven't been in a real war since Korea and lost their last major conflict when Vietnam kicked their ass back in the 1970's. Since then none of their troops have gotten any combat experience. To be fair the same thing is true for Taiwan but it certainly not true for US forces.   

Another x-factor is what would America do. I can't imagine there is much desire to go to war with China over Taiwan. Though China is a brutal communist dictatorship who genocides religious minorities and is responsible for the Coronavirus outbreak but even that wasn't enough to get Americans to meaningfully punish China. Americans are war weary after two decades of war in the middle east and the last thing anyone wants is a war with China. 

Other countries in the region might be more interested in a war with China. Japan is afraid of the country and so is South Korea. Vietnam too is opposed to China. These are countries that Taiwan should be building an alliance with. 

Despite the horrible casualties that would result in a war between China and Taiwan it might actually be a good thing for the United States in the end, assuming we don't get involved. China is seriously underestimating the costs, both in money and lives, that taking Taiwan would take. A war would likely utterly destroy their economy, cause Xi and the communist party to lose face and could even lead to revolution if they end up failing. 

There is a small concern that such a war could lead to a nuclear exchange. Either between China and the United States or China nuking their non-US foes in the war. Such an exchange would be devastating and would probably result in hundreds of millions of casualties, if not a billion. Such an outcome is unlikely but is always a concern when a war happens between two countries that have nuclear arms. 

In the end though, I do think that China will hold off on any war with Taiwan. Unlike basically all western countries, China is playing the long game. I think they feel they can wait for the United States to fail, which we are well on the path to doing so, and then they can invade Taiwan without interference. I don't think they care if that happens in five years or twenty but until that happens (and it's an inevitability at this point if the Democrats remain in power) they won't go to war with Taiwan.