SCOTUS says they will review so called "assault weapon" bans that ban America's most popular rifle.

 

A group prays in front of the Surpreme Court. AP.

The Supreme Court says they have granted certiorari for two consolidated cases challenging Illinois and Connecticut bans on so-called "assault weapons" including America's most popular rifle, the AR-15. AP. The case will be the largest gun rights case since 2022's NYSRPA v Bruen, which set the Bruen test for gun laws, which requires there to be a historical precedent for those laws.  The current Court has been highly supportive of the 2nd amendment, with two major rulings on gun rights this year, including striking down Hawaii's de facto ban on concealed carry and federal laws banning marijuana users from purchasing or possessing firearms. 

My Comment:

The big news today is, of course, the birthright citizenship case, that did not go the way many people have wished. But these cases being heard before the Supreme Court is likely to be a more impactful case. Should the AR-15 ban be revoked in these states, it would be close to a final victory for the gun rights movement and the ultimate defeat of gun control in the United States. 

After today's ruling on birthright citizenship and yesterday's ruling on mail in ballots, I would understand if folks were concerned that this ruling could actually uphold the bans. People have been very critical of Roberts and Barrett, given how they ruled today. 

But it's important to note that both of them voted in favor of gun rights this term and in previous cases. Indeed, it would be shocking if they didn't both side with the four justices, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh that are chomping at the bit to overturn these gun laws. The most likely outcome here is a 6-3 or 5-4 ruling in favor of overturning the bans. 

Indeed, I think that the fact that the case was granted certiorari at all is a strong signal that one or both of Roberts and Barrett have been brought on board. The four pro-gun justices would not risk losing the case and it's pretty rare for the court to take cases like this if there isn't a strong chance of a favorable outcome. Who knows what will happen during arguments, but it would be shocking to me for this case to fail. 

The legal argument for overturning these bans is extremely strong. There isn't a historical precedence, so the Bruen test is already a failure. But the ruling in DC vs Heller that said that firearms in common use are protected by the 2nd amendment. Given that the AR-15 is America's most popular rifle and these so called "assault weapons" even outside AR variants are extremely popular, it's failing that case as well. 

Should the case rule in favor of overturning the bans, we would likely see the collapse of many attempts by states to attempt to end run the Bruen and Heller rulings. It would be pretty explicit rejection of the modern gun control movement and states that have these kinds of assault weapons bans on the books would either have to repeal them or face court cases they would almost certainly lose. Either way, I'd say within a year or two of the decision, most or even all AR-15 bans will be gone and the lower courts would be a lot more reluctant to try and support more gun control laws. 

The case will be heard during the October SCOTUS session and will likely be decided around this time next year. Indeed, I would expect it to be the last case to be revealed, like the birthright citizenship case was decided today. I'd say there's more than an 80% chance that the case will be overturned and the AR-15 will be protected.