President Trump announces a deal to end the Iran War.

 

President Donald Trump. New York Post/AP.

President Trump has announced a deal to end the Iran War. New York Post. Iran has confirmed the deal. Both sides are planning on signing a deal on Friday in Switzerland. The breakthrough was brokered by Pakistan. Though details are scarce, Iran has agreed to get rid of their enriched Uranium in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded by both sides of the conflict. The deal was briefly put into jeopardy after Israel bombed targets in Lebanon, but Trump was able to keep the peace process going in spite of the attack. Trump was reportedly furious with Israel for the attack. 

My Comment:

How optimistic should we be that this deal will actually end the war? The ceasefire already fell apart once so it's very possible that it could happen again. However, this is as close as we have gotten and there is a lot of reason for optimism too. 

The biggest problem is Israel. They weren't really consulted on this and the whole thing is dependent on them not attacking Lebanon. The bombing before this deal was made almost derailed the whole thing and I would not be surprised if it wasn't deliberate to derail things. 

Israel has different interests in Iran than the United States. The US wants to end the nuclear threat but Israel wants to go beyond that and go full regime change. That's despite the fact that Iran kind had a regime change. Certainly much of their leadership died in the initial strikes and even more died in the 2nd round last week. But I am not sure that Israel will accept the terms of this deal if it leaves Iran's Islamic government in power. 

The other factor that could derail it is Iran's IRCG. They have derailed it in the past and it's clear that the secular Iranian government does not have full control of their IRCG counterparts. The government is trying to frame this as a victory for them, so the IRCG might accept the deal. But if it does fall apart, they are the most likely reason why. 

However, things might actually work out. The war has to end at some point and it's clear that Iran's probably not going to get a better deal than they are getting now. This deal isn't one sided, they get an end to the war and some financial assistance as well.    

And it has to be noted that Iran's military has largely been destroyed. Iran's Navy is nothing but a bad memory and all they really have left for a surface fleet is a bunch of powerboats. The rest of their military is in somewhat better shape but they have lost most of their offensive and defense capabilities. They could continue the conflict, in theory, but they would not last long before a collapse. 

It really was one of the most one-sided military conflicts in American history. Iran was mostly unable to do much to the United States. We only took light casualties, and though we lost some equipment, it was nowhere near what the Iranians lost. 

So do I think this deal will work out? I think it's about a 75% chance of doing so. I think there is about a 15% chance of Israel screwing everything up for us and a 5% chance of the IRGC doing so as well, along with a 5% of chance of something else happening. Fingers crossed that it works out.