Deal to end Iran war signed early in diplomatic breakthrough.

 

President Trump signs the deal as French President Emmanuel Macron watches. New York Post.

The deal to end the Iran War has been signed early in a diplomatic breakthrough. New York Post. President Trump signed the deal at the Palace of Versailles in France as he was dining with French President Emmanuel Macron. President Pezeshkian of Iran also signed the document today, bringing an official end to the war. It is unclear why the deal was signed early as there had been plans to sign the document on Friday. The document lifts sanctions against Iran and opens the strait in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear weapons program and enriched Uranium. 

NBC News has more information on what the deal contains. Both sides have agreed to meet diplomatically over the next 60 days to hammer out the details and sign a 2nd, more detailed document. The Strait of Hormuz will open immediately (after mine clearing operations finish) and there will be no fees charged for the next 60 days. Iran will surrender their enriched uranium and allow inspectors but details still have to be worked out. A $300 billion investment fund has been authorized though the United States will not contribute to it and the fund would take the form of sanctions relief for development projects. The one sticking point remains Lebanon, given that Israel was not a party to the negotiations and may continue their attacks on the country. 

My Comment:

Everyone expected a deal to be signed but I don't think too many people were expecting the deal to be signed today instead of Friday. They had even scheduled a ceremony and everything. All of that is canceled now and folks are wondering why. 

Some of this is due to just wanting this thing done with. Opening the Strait of Hormuz will lower gas prices along with fertilizer. Doing it now instead of Friday makes it that much quicker to clear the mines and open the Strait for the roughly 2500 ships that are trapped trying to get in and out of the area. Getting commerce going to will help the world economy a great deal and should lower gas prices dramatically in the United States. 

I think it also had a little to do with where Trump was today. He was in France for the G7 meeting and doing it in front of French President Emmanuel Macron shows respect to our French allies and will likely have an effect on the G7 members getting on board with the peace deal. Plus, President Trump is known for his sense of pageantry and signing it at Versailles is absolutely that. 

But I think this was primarily about Israel. Israel was not a party to these talks and this is almost a separate peace. Indeed the Israelis are furious, mostly because Lebanon was included in the deal. They also wanted regime change, and didn't think that killing two sets of leaders of Iran really counts. Netanyahu almost derailed the whole thing before the first memo was signed and it was only President Trump yelling at Netanyahu that righted the ship. 

By signing the deal now Israel risks losing their last and best ally if they decide to continue to bomb Lebanon or Iran. There may have even been plans in place for strikes before Friday's signing and by signing it today, Trump may have prevented Israeli interference in the deal. Launching strikes now aren't entirely impossible for Israel, but doing so would have much more severe consequences now. 

As for the deal itself, it's fine. America got it's main war goal. Iran will give up their nuclear material and their program along with ensuring inspections so it won't come back. Iran is getting some stuff too, but the most criticized portion, the $300 billion development fund, is not being paid by the United States. Other local states are paying for it, and that will given them even more leverage over Iran to play ball.