The US has the forces in place to attack Cuba. Will It?

 

The USS Nimitz. Politico/AP.

The United States has enough forces in place to attack Cuba. Politico. The armada assembled in the region includes the USS Nimitz, along with two Amphibious Assault Ships, the Iwo Jima and the Ft. Lauderdale, are in the region, though the two ships are due to be replaced by the USS Kearsarge. Several destroyers and cruisers are deployed in the region as well. Though no signs indicate strikes, there is a time limit due to long deployments for the Nimitz, which was scheduled to be decommissioned this year. The ships in place are enforcing a de facto blockade for Cuba, which is facing heavy diplomatic pressure and a major fuel crisis. 

My Comment:

I'm going to go on record that I don't think military action against Cuba is going to happen in the short term. Long term is a different question but for right now? It's not going to happen. 

Why? The most obvious reason is that the war with Iran is still smoldering. Every day we hear news about peace talks and a deal being imminent but until there is a peace deal signed, I can't see the United States starting another conflict with Cuba. There are hopeful signs that a deal actually is close, but until that happens, any conflict with Cuba is unlikely. 

Even if the war were to end today, and that's hopelessly optimistic, it would still take weeks or even months to move forces around to actually accomplish military strikes. The fact that the Iwo Jima and Ft. Lauderdale are being withdrawn seems to show that things are moving away from a strike, not close to it. I am guessing at least one more Amphibious Assault Ship would be needed for an attack like we saw with Venezuela. 

Of course, I do think that we do technically have enough sources to attack Cuba. Cuba is not anywhere near as powerful as Venezuela was but the forces arrayed against them are roughly the same size, if not bigger. Remember, Cuba is only 90 miles away from Florida and we have significant air assets stationed there. Whatever shortfall we have in Navy assets could be made up for with our Air Force.

With that being said, there is an argument that we are burning through too much with our military operations. Starting a third military operation after a major operation in Venezuela and the closest thing to a major war we have had in a long time in Iran. Our weapons stocks were low before that, thanks to the Biden Administration wasting our weapons on Ukraine, but they are even lower now. And that's not even considering the level of exhaustion that could be setting in with our Naval forces, there have been several very long deployments for some of our most powerful warships. 

Regardless though, we have very little reason to actually attack. Cuba is in an extremely difficult position right now, they are already being squeezed by this blockade. They have had a massive fuel crisis to the point where they are essentially out. There is a very real chance that the blockade and sanctions alone could collapse the regime. It's not a huge chance, but it exists. 

There are political risks as well. The appetite for another war isn't non-existent, the Cuban community absolutely wants one, but a lot of other people do not. Starting a new conflict after ending the one with Iran could do some damage to the Republicans in 2026. Trump says the midterms aren't a concern, but I am guessing that alone will rule out military action until next year.