Vice President JD Vance. Irish Star/AP.
JD Vance is considering skipping a presidential run in 2028. Irish Star. An anonymous source told the Daily Mail that the Vice President thinks he would have a better chance of winning in 2032 or 2036. Vance is a young man at 41, but if he doesn't run he would risk losing his window. Vance has been rumored to be on the outs in the Administration over opposition to the strikes in Iran and is considered to be the largest dove in the admin after Tulsi Gabbard has resigned.
My Comment:
I've seen this story filtering through social media today and I have to say the reporting is incredibly thin, and it's even accessible. The original Daily Mail report is under a paywall so I can't even read it and supposedly Vance's people have denied this as a rumor. Given that it's an anonymously sourced post by the Daily Mail I'm inclined to agree.
I also don't really think the implications of the Irish Star article are right either. Vance is more dovish than some of the other people in the White House, but it's not like he was totally opposed to things. Indeed, he thought if it was going to happen, we should go as hard and fast as possible, and, as far as I can tell, his plan won out. And Gabbard wasn't pushed out, she resigned because her husband has an aggressive cancer. I don't think the division over Iran was anywhere as large as people say.
But I think it's at least possible that Vance could decide to not run in 2028. He's currently leading in most polls but that could change and it's undoubtable that Marco Rubio's star is rising. Indeed, if I had to choose between the two men, I honestly don't know who I would choose. Vance seems like he would be better for folks on the lower end on the economic spectrum, but you can't deny how effective Rubio has been.
Vance also has a large and young family and who knows if he wants to keep exposing his family to the kind of chaos that is the White House. His wife is expecting their fourth child and there's always a chance that Vance could just decide to hang it up.
I also think that Vance has some headwinds to face. Though Vance is white, his wife is Indian and he's good friends with Vivek Ramaswamy. That's not great at a time where racism against Indians is almost universal and H1B visas are one of the most toxic topics in the country. He also doesn't seem popular among women for whatever reason. He has some vulnerabilities that could lead him to conclude that it's not worth it to run now.
Still, all of that is speculation at this point. I think this story is probably bunk and that Vance hasn't decided either way. Campaign season doesn't even start until after the 2026 midterms and a massive amount of change can happen between now and then.
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