Vladimir Putin says Ukraine War is likely to end soon

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fox News/AFP. 

Vladimir Putin has said that the Ukraine War is likely coming to and end. Fox News. The statement came after a three day ceasefire was announced and a 1000 for 1000 prisoner exchange. The ceasefire mostly held, though both sides accuse the others of violating it. Russia celebrated Victory Day, marking their defeat of Nazi Germany, though celebrations were scaled back. Putin said he wanted former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to lead the negotiations. The war has largely devolved into a stalemate, with little in the way of territorial gains this year. 

My Comment:

Putin's comments here are strange. There is nothing on the battlefield that suggests either side will achieve a major battlefield breakthrough. Ukraine's recent gains have been overstated, largely because of how the conflict works with traditional front lines being rare and large "grey zones" being contested by small groups of soldiers are the norm. But it's undeniable that the war has ground to a halt in terms of territory being taken. 

It's possible that Russia has some major offensive planned but given how this conflict works, it seems pretty unlikely. Massing troops, tanks and vehicles in a modern conflict is a sure way to draw drone fire and if either side was doing so we would know about it given how many casualties they would take even before the offensive has begun. 

What seems more likely is that Putin might be considering making a deal. I don't think it has too much to do with the battlefield at all though. Instead it's about domestic pressure as the Russian people may be getting tired of the war. Russia has been willing to bear the burden of the conflict so far, but with the battlefield frozen folks might either want a breakthrough or a ceasefire. 

And it's very important to note that Russia's geopolitical situation has absolutely changed. Venezuela was a major Russian ally, but now has entirely switched sides, to the point where President Trump was floating the idea of making it the 51'st state (which isn't going to happen). Venezuela wasn't an important ally, but it was an ally and now they are absolutely not. 

But it's the Iran war that has likely disrupted things for Russia. Iran was a key ally and had been supplying Russia with arms, most notably drones. Russia replaced much of these sales, but it's also clear that Russia cannot rely on Iran as an ally. Russia didn't really need either of these allies, or Syria for that matter, but it absolutely is a factor. 

And I would also say that both conflicts were entirely one sided and might have sapped Russia's confidence that if the war did spiral out of control they could still beat NATO. While Europe remains a paper tiger, the United States demonstrated they are a lot bigger threat than Russia may have realized before, especially when demonstrating new technology. Indeed, that may have been what the recent UFO release could have been about, some of the sightings are undoubtably US military technology that hasn't been disclosed. 

With all that being said, I don't think a peace deal is likely in the short term. Neither side has budged at all from their war goals. Russia still wants the territory they haven't actually conquered yet and Ukraine still demands all of the territory Russia has conquered. With neither side willing to budge, I don't see how any kind of peace deal could happen. 

I still think that unless Ukraine has some kind of major collapse (which is very possible) the most likely end to the war is a negotiated settlement. I am guessing that Russia will have to give up the territory they claim but haven't captured and would have to exchange some land they conquered in the north, while Ukraine would have to give up their claims on the Donbas and Crimea. How we ever get both sides to agree to that is beyond me...