President Donald Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei.. Times of Israel/AP.
Iran and the United States appear ready for high level talks in Ankara Turkey to avoid a conflict. Times of Israel. Tensions between Iran and the United States have been high ever since wide scale anti-regime protests broke out and were put down by the Iranian government. The United States has deployed significant forces in the region, including a carrier strike group. However, reports from sources in the Trump administration say that a meeting is being arranged between Iran's diplomats and Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Both sides are still publicly saber rattling, with Iran saying that a regional war could break out and President Trump agreeing with the statement.
My Comment:
I am guessing that diplomacy will win the day here. I know that both Trump and the Iranian government are yelling at each other right now, but anyone who knows anything about how Trump does things understands that he often does that. Trump and Kim Jong Un were pretty acrimonious before their meeting and despite that they had a pretty productive meeting. It doesn't always work, Trump ran into a brick wall in trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war, but it does appear to be what is happening here.
That doesn't mean that there isn't a risk of strikes. We do have large forces in the region. In addition to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which has an air wing, supporting warships, and, most likely, cruise missile submarines, we also have a few squadrons of F-15's in the region as well. Not to mention our long range strike capabilities using B-2 bombers.
It's also important to note that Iran's defensive capabilities have been greatly reduced by Israel during their 12 day war last year. Their air force, already obsolete with outdated MIG29's and ancient F-14 Tomcats, was largely grounded during that conflict and they lost quite a few of their jets through airstrikes. And their air defenses? Blown up as well. They have managed to rebuild some of those forces, but not anywhere near enough to actually defend themselves against an American attack.
Iran is probably also receptive to diplomacy after the successful raid in Venezuela that saw President Maduro reduced to a federal prisoner. Such an operation targeting Khamenei isn't at all likely given that Iran is a lot more formidable than Venezuela even in it's reduced state, but it does show that Trump is crazy enough to try something with Iran and have a real chance of pulling it off. And it's not like Iran found out for themselves just how bad it could go after their nuclear sites were wiped out last year.
Though the protests in Iran probably caused this, any talks would likely not be about them. The protests have winded down, at high cost in terms of human lives, but they are over now. The real problem is the nuclear deal. Though effective, the strikes against Iran's nuclear sites were not enough to end the nuclear program entirely. A deal, that would involve inspections of Iranian nuclear sites, is what is needed to ensure that the program doesn't start up again.
I do think that Diplomacy will win the day. Iran is in a very bad position right now. They are practically defenseless and barely survived the latest round of protests. They are also crippled economically, I have mentioned in their past that their inflation was running around 40% a month, and that's not counting food inflation being even worse. Their capital even has a water crisis. They have every incentive to make a deal here.
And we also know enough about President Trump that he wants a deal as well. He's not afraid to saber rattle, but he is absolutely willing to talk as well, and his whole personality is built around making deals in difficult situations. It's what fuels him and I think he wants to be the one that finally brought peace to the middle east. And I think as long as nothing goes wrong, he will probably pull it off.
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