Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fox News/AP.
Vladimir Putin has declared a three day cease fire in the fighting between Russia and Ukraine this May. Fox News. The cease fire would be between May 8th and May 10th, in celebration of the end of World War II. He invited Ukraine to observe the cease fire as well but said the Russian Armed Forces would respond to any attacks. Victory Day is the largest secular holiday and Russia and is a celebration of the victory against Nazi Germany. Russia has linked the war to the current conflict in Ukraine due to fascist supporters in Ukraine. It is unclear how much this will affect peace talks and Ukraine has said that they want more than a three day cease fire.
My Comment:
The cynical out there say that this is just an effort to protect the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow. I would say to that, who would attack a military parade celebrating the end of Nazi Germany other than Nazis? If Ukraine is even thinking about attacking the Victory Day Parade it would be an act of insanity. If you want to unite even people opposed to the war against Ukraine, attacking a Victory Day Parade would be the way to do it.
Regardless, I do think that this is mostly about Donald Trump. Putin has been under pressure to give something to Trump for his peace effort and this is probably it. A 3 day cease fire is better than nothing and it's probably all Russia is willing to give at this point given how fast their offensive is going right now.
Ukraine has, predictably, rejected this and said that they want more and they want it now. As always, they are making perfect the enemy of good. Instead of getting any of what they want, they are going for a 30 day cease fire that they know Russia won't agree with. This is playing right into Putin's hands as he wants to appear to be the reasonable one. While Zelensky? He's clearly not.
Will the cease fire even happen? I am guessing not. The last one was mostly for show, both sides violated it pretty frequently. It's possible that Ukraine will not launch any attacks on Russia during the cease fire, but I am not holding my breath. It's very possible that they will attack Russia during this time and forget about the fighting in Ukraine proper. I just don't think Zelensky is a rational actor. And I don't think Russia will let any attacks by Ukraine slide.
I generally don't have high hopes of the peace process working and I think Donald Trump should just walk away and let Russia and Ukraine deal with it themselves. I have said for awhile that as long as Zelensky is at risk from being killed by his own people (or European intel services) if he cuts a deal with Putin, no deal with Putin is going to happen.
And Putin? Again, why would he end the war when it's so very clear that he's winning it? About the only reason I can see is to please Trump, which would probably lead to the ending of sanctions and a trade deal with the United States. But that's only until Trump leaves office, and there is zero indication who is going to win in 2028, and it's very possible that a Democrat or pro-war Republican could win then and then it's right back to the status quo. Much better for him to just conquer enough of Ukraine to the point it's not a threat anymore.
No comments:
Post a Comment