India-Pakistan relations crater in wake of Kashmir terror attack.

 

An Indian man screams at a protest against Pakistan in Delhi. BBC/Reuters.

India and Pakistan are in the depths of a diplomatic crisis in the wake of the Kashmir terror attack that left 26 people dead. BBC. The attack involved four gunmen, three of which have been identified and two who are Pakistani citizens. India has blamed Pakistan for the attack and vowed to hunt down those responsible for it wherever they are. The men are members of the the Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT, terror group. In response to the attack India and Pakistan have conducted tit for tat diplomatic moves, including closing borders, canceling visas, closing airspace and a suspension of trade. Most notably, India has withdrawn from the Indus Water Treaty, a water sharing treaty. Pakistan has said that any effort to divert or stop the flow of water would be considered an act of war... 

My Comment:

Things have developed quickly in the wake of the terror attack in Kashmir. Indeed, tensions are extremely high right now, almost as bad as the border skirmishes that involved artillery and jet battles between 2019 and 2021. War was avoided back then, but will it be again? 

I don't really have a horse in this race. I am not a fan of either country. How I think of it will depend on if India is right and Pakistan had a role in this attack. That would obviously be an act of war and would probably justify a conflict, given how there was a terrorist attack on Indian soil that targeted civilians. 

But did Pakistan help LeT do this attack? I have no idea. Pakistan has done some very shady things in the past, but I am also not prepared to take India's word for it. It certainly is possible, but I don't know if they did or not. Pakistan absolutely has ties to LeT, but did they direct this attack? It's pretty impossible for folks without state level intelligence services to know. 

Regardless, the real problem is that two nuclear armed countries are heading to a possible conflict. It seems likely that there will be some kind of military response to this terror attack and it doesn't help that there are a lot of people, like the man in the picture I used for this post, that are extremely upset by the attack and are braying for war. To be fair, if there was involvement of the Pakistani government, I would be angry too. And at the very least, Pakistan does allow LeT to operate in their borders. 

A full scale war is unlikely and a nuclear exchange is even less likely than that, for what should be obvious reasons. Neither side wants a real war and I don't think either side is prepared for what they would need to do to win such a conflict. 

What is likely is some kind of strike against the camps that house these terror groups. That's how it played out in 2019. Folks were pretty worried about a war back then, but in the end it was a few skirmishes and not much happened other than an antiquated MIG-21 Bison getting shot down. That's what I am assuming will happen now. India will probably launch an air raid, with possible artillery strikes as well, and Pakistan will respond. 

But after that happens I expect both sides will see honor satisfied and will end it there. Like I said, nobody wants to see a major war between nuclear powers, and that includes India and Pakistan. I think there will be a response but I am not expecting a full scale war. And once that response is over, things will go back to status quo ante. 

The one thing that does give me pause is the suspension of the water treaty. If India were to restrict or redirect flow of their rivers towards Pakistan, it would be a major escalation and one that actually could lead to a major war. Pakistan correctly said it would be an act of war and there absolutely would be a response to that. I personally think it's just an empty threat, but it is something to keep an eye on...