Pakistan says India is likely to launch strikes against them...

 

The India/Pakistan Border. Reuters. 

Pakistan has said that India is likely to launch strikes against them. Reuters. Tensions have skyrocketed after a major terror attack in Kashmir left 26 people dead. Pakistan said they had intelligence that India was likely to strike in a day or two. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on both sides to reduce tensions but it is unclear if a conflict will be avoided. Despite the tensions, a weekly de-escalation call between the two nuclear powers went on as planned. Small arms fire has been exchanged for the past six days, though nobody has been injured or killed. 

My Comment:

As of this writing no strikes have been launched. I think it's still possible that cooler heads will prevail but that seems pretty unlikely, even with the diplomatic pressure on both India and Pakistan to not have a fight. But I also think that a full scale war is also unlikely. 

I do think that India will have to respond in some way. They lost a lot of face in this terror attack and they are under extreme pressure from their own people to make some kind of response. Folks are extremely upset that one of the nicer places in India was attacked like this. To not offer any kind of military response would probably cause more disruption than any skirmish would cause. 

I am not expecting a major war. Neither side really wants that and obviously nobody wants to take a risk of being nuked. Both sides have mobilized a ton of troops but I haven't seen much in the way of preparation for a major strike. 

I also don't think the diplomatic channels that are open right now would be if a major war was actually going to happen. The fact that the de-escalation line is not only still open, but is being used routinely tells me that there isn't going to be some kind of massive invasion of Pakistan by India. 

That doesn't mean that there won't be some kind of reaction though. It just won't be a huge war. My guess is that India will launch some kind of strike package against Pakistan, specifically at the bases of the terrorists. It's unclear what this attack would look like though. 

Normally I would think it would be airstrikes but that didn't work out well for India during the last time the two powers fought. India lost one of their antiquated (and now retired) MIG-21's in the skirmish and I think that's a possibility this time around too. Pakistan does have a good Air Force with modern planes and I think they could give India major problems if they tried to launch air strikes. 

Instead, I think this will probably be an artillery duel. India will hit the bases they can with their artillery and Pakistan will shell them in return. A few people will die and that will be the end of it. At most there will be an air battle, which is again unlikely. Maybe a border skirmish or two. But no full scale war. 

If a major war were to happen though, my main fear would be the refugee crisis it would cause. Being forced to accept millions of Indian and Pakistani refugees would not... be good. It's the best argument for peace I can think of and I do think it's a major reason why folks are trying to end this conflict diplomatically before an actual war happens.