Ban on 18 to 20 year old adults buying handguns overturned in 5th Circuit Court ruling in a major victory for gun rights.

 

Handguns at the NRA meeting in Dallas Texas. Reuters. 

A ban that stopped adults under the age of 21 from buying handguns has been ruled unconstitutional in the 5th Circuit Court. Reuters. The court had previously upheld the ban, but after NYSRPA v Bruen, the court followed the test set forth in that ruling and found that there was no historical case for a ban on adults owning handguns. The federal ban on handguns was included in a 1968 crime bill. The court found that the 2nd Amendment does include adults between the age of 18 to 20. 

My Comment:

Just a couple of days ago I criticized Donald Trump's ban on puberty blockers and surgery for transgender children because it bafflingly included 18 year old adults in the order. Though I supported the ban, I rejected the inclusion of 18 year old adults because they are indeed adults. As adults they should have the same rights to ruin their bodies as older adults, unless there is a total ban on these "treatments". 

I would support the same logic here. I always hated the idea that an 18 year old is old enough to carry a weapon in a war they were drafted into but aren't old enough to buy a handgun to defend their own home or drink a beer when they get home from the war. That's not the logic that was used in this case but it does have the same effect and one of the major limitations on under 21 adults is now gone. 

At least in the 5th Circuit of course. This ruling only covers that Circuit, which is made up of Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana. In those states younger adults are now able to buy handguns. But in the rest of the country? The ban is still in effect. 

So will the rest of the country follow suit? I think it's possible. Either the other courts will agree with this ruling and the law will be largely overturned or the case will go to the Supreme Court and will likely reach the same conclusion as the 5th Circuit Court. That means that this ban on younger adults buying handguns is pretty much dead. 

Either way this shows how important NYSRPA v Bruen case was. We absolutely would not have had this ruling had the case never existed. Indeed, the same court reached the opposite ruling in 2012. But the Bruen test showed that the rule was unconstitutional and now it is gone for at least some of the folks in this country. 

It does seem like gun rights is a solved issue in America today. NYSRPA v Bruen is law of the land and the Democrats are the only folks that really support gun control laws. And they are absolutely on the backfoot right now. For the time being at least, I doubt we will see any national gun laws that infringe on the 2nd amendment. The states are another thing but even they are facing huge numbers of lawsuits to overturn those laws...    

Australia disrupts a terrorism plot targeting Jewish citizens.

 

New South Wales Police Deputy Commissioner David Hudson AP.

Police in Australia have disrupted a terrorism plot targeting Jewish civilians in the country. AP. Australia has suffered a wave of antisemitic attacks since the start of the October 7th war between Gaza and Israel, including large amounts of graffiti and some cases of arsons. One person has been injured in the arson attacks. This current plot involved a large amount of the explosive Powergel, a mining explosive. A list of targets was found along with the explosives and included a Jewish school. 10 arrests have been made in the case. The police believe that the suspects are "criminals for hire" and are working at the behest of a foreign power, though they have not revealed which foreign power they believe is responsible. 

My Comment:

This appears to be a major terror plot. You can make a large explosion with the amount of Powergel 801 that was acquired by this group. It could probably have destroyed or heavily damaged any one of the targets that were found with the explosives. 

Thankfully the group was broken up before they could launch whatever attack they were planning. Police had already made arrests before the explosives were found so the danger was minimal. Still this could have been a major terror attack if the plot hadn't been discovered. 

What surprises me is that this is happening in Australia. I don't think they have a large population of Jewish people in the first place and I can't think of a country that is more distant from the war between Hamas and Israel. In short, it does not seem like an environment where antisemitism would happen naturally. 

What truly makes this story worth covering is the idea that this is an international conspiracy by a foreign actor to promote and possibly carry out these attacks. That is, to be clear, an act of war and it's a very serious thing for Australia to claim. It's possible they are just lying, I have very little trust in the Australian government to not be evil, but my gut says that it's very possible. 

If I had to guess which government it was I would say it's most likely a Muslim one, with Iran being the biggest suspect. They have been absolutely humiliated lately with their proxy government in Syria falling, Hezbollah and Hamas being humbled and Turkey usurping their role as the leader of more radical Islam in the Middle East. Doing this could be a face saving measure, but one that could risk war with Australia. Still, without more information this is all speculation. 

Of course this is probably why the plot failed. From what the article said, the suspects in this case were just local criminals and they obviously don't have ideological reasons to conduct terror attacks. I am guessing one of the people contracted to carry out these attacks either had a case of guilt and went to authorities or got picked up for something else and cut a deal... It shows why outsourcing your terror attacks is probably a bad idea...

Trump issues executive order that bans chemical and surgical "treatments" for gender transitions for minors.

 

President Donald Trump. Fox News/Truth Social.

President Donald Trump has issued an executive order that bans chemical and surgical treatments for gender transitions for those under the age of 19. Fox News. Trump said in the order that the "treatments" can lead to sterilization and medical complications that can last a lifetime and said many children regret them after they become adults. Surgical treatments, like the removal of breasts, or chemical treatments, like puberty blockers, will no longer be allowed to be used. Trump said that institutions that offer these treatments will be defunded and any laws that enforce bans on these activities will be vigorously enforced. 

The White House full statement can be found here. 

My Comment:

Though I am mostly on board with this, I do have one major criticism of this order. The age. I have never been comfortable with laws that extend the range of what is considered a child past the age of 18. This order bans 18 year olds from doing something that 19 year olds can and I can't abide that. You are either an adult at 18 or not and that means that anything that is legal for a 19 year old or a 21 year old should be legal if you are only 18. Either 18 is an adult or not, and if you can carry a gun in a war than you should be able to drink a beer or buy a handgun when you get home. And though I don't really support gender surgery at any age, if it's legal than 18 year olds should be able to do it. 

But sometimes you have take the bad with the good and the rest of this order is very good. I was never on board on transitioning children and like most people I was horrified by the cases I have seen. The idea that a small child can one day decide that they are the opposite sex and then folks validate that and given them pills that prevent puberty is horrible. And when they grow older they can have their sexual body parts, like their penis or breasts, removed. It was horrifying. I don't care what the doctors or scientists say, this was not a good thing and it should be stopped. 

The efforts to transition children was probably a major reason why folks have turned on the transgender community. Indeed, it's been a reason why I haven't been aggressive in having kids. What's the point if the mother can arbitrarily decide that your son is a girl or your daughter is a boy? And then force them to have pills that prevent puberty and cut off their parts when they get older? And if you object in any way you can lose all access to your children. Seem extreme? Well it happened to Jeff Younger. But at least now his son won't be taking those puberty blockers... 

I think most folks would have adopted a live and let live view towards the transgender community if it wasn't for cases like Younger's. Indeed, I think most folks would at least be willing to humor the more reasonable folks, like Caitlyn (Bruce) Jenner. But once folks figured out that children were going to be major target than the pushback began. And now the question is how far it will go. 

There will likely be major legal battles against this order and I am guessing it will end up in the Supreme Court. Supposedly there is a case from Tennessee that has already heard oral arguments about this very issue. They are expecting a ruling in July. But until then I am expecting major court challenges to this that may put the order on hold. I think that the order will likely survive, but you never know what the court will do. 

I do worry that there could be violence from the transgender community in backlash from this order. That doesn't mean the order wasn't worth doing, but it is something I worry about. There have been quite a few transgender attacks on people for political reasons and this order might set a few of the more radicalized ones off. I would not be surprised if there is another Audrey Hale out there waiting in the wings... 

Columbia starts a trade with with America over deportations of illegal immigrants.

 

Illegal aliens being deported. BBC?US Government photo.

Trump has issued sanctions and other consequences for the country of Columbia after refusing two flights of illegal immigrants deported to their country. BBC. Columbia refused the flights because they were on military planes instead of commercial. In response Trump put into place 25% tariffs on all Columbian goods and has also sanctioned Columbian politicians, revoking their visas. Columbia responded with tariffs of their own while their President, Gustavo Petro, wrote an extremely long rant on X saying he would fight back and somehow seemed to think that Trump would have him killed. America imports coffee and flowers from Columbia but the tariffs would likely mean suppliers would prioritize other countries over Columbia. 

Trump, a mi no me gusta mucho viajar a los EEUU, es un poco aburridor, pero confieso que hay cosas meritorias, me gusta ir a los barrios negros de Washington, allí ví una lucha entera en la capital de los EEUU entre negros y latinos con barricadas, que me pareció una pendejada,…

— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) January 26, 2025

EDIT: Mere moments after finishing this post, news broke on social media that a deal has been made between Trump and Petro. Time will tell if it is legit.  

My Comment:

This is not a fight that Columbia can win. America imports some coffee, flowers and other minor things like bananas, but putting tariffs on them is not really going to affect us at all. But for Columbia? It's going to devastate their economy. We can get our coffee from other countries, they need us way more than we need them.  

Gustavo Petro seems more than a bit deranged. He seems to think that Trump is going to kill him over this, which is insane. That rant he posted on X is one for the ages, it's worth reading the translated version if you are looking for grade A madness. 

This is Trump putting his foot down. This whole thing was over military transport being used, which is a very odd hill for Columbia to die on. Trump, on the other hand, wanted to make an example out of someone for not taking their citizens back and Columbia has apparently decided to fall on that sword.

This is a message to countries like Mexico and Canada who Trump has threatened with similar tariffs. They have been mostly wavering on the issue but now they know for sure that Trump wasn't joking around and that the same thing could happen to them. If it can happen to Columbia then it absolutely can happen to Canada and Mexico. Instead of a trade war it's in their interest to give Trump what he wants in terms of immigration.  

Despite the rhetoric on both sides, I expect some kind of deal to be made. Trump is of course a deal maker and I think despite his unhinged rant on X, Petro isn't so much of a die hard that he would destroy his country over military flights being used for deportations as opposed to commercial flights. Stranger things have happened but I am guessing that a deal is being made. 

As for the deportations themselves it's great to see some of these folks being sent home. Trump is already keeping his campaign promises on immigration and he's targeting the worst of the worst. Most of the folks getting deported now are convicted criminals that are also illegal aliens. These folks should have been deported years ago but Biden protected them. But now that he is gone we have finally removed some of the folks that need to leave. 

Of course it's just a drop in the bucket. Nobody seems to know how many illegal immigrants there are in America, I've heard 11 million to 30 million people. Getting rid of the worst of the worst is a great start but there is still an absurd amount of work to do. If Trump even gets rid of 1/4th of them it will be a huge accomplishment, so I am hoping that he can keep up the pace he has set. 

Major companies are pulling away from DEI policies.

 

File photo of Meta headquarters. AP.

Many major companies are pulling back from, or eliminating entirely, DEI policies. AP. The so called "diversity, equity and inclusion" policies were widely adopted after the 2020 George Floyd riots. DEI policies were designed to prevent discrimination against "marginalized groups" but critics say they were essentially discrimination in a new form. Activists, spurred on by a Supreme Court case that banned Affirmative Action in college admissions, have targeted companies that continue to use DEI policies. Companies that have dropped or scaled back DEI programs include Meta (parent company of Facebook and Instagram), Amazon, Wal-Mart, McDonalds, Ford Motor Company and Lowes. 

My Comment:

It really does seem like the DEI experiment is over. Certainly it seems like the pushback has begun at least and some companies are bending the knee. It's not the end for sure, many companies are still keeping some form of DEI and there are others that are only scaling back, but I still view this as a positive development. 

DEI was never anything but a racial spoils system for certain minorities that came at the expense of other folks, most notably Whites, East Asians, and men of all races. Instead of making colorblind hiring and promotional considerations, DEI made race and gender a forefront to those decisions and it had bad effects. 

It also caused a massive amount of resentment. Nobody wants to hear about how their race is bad and how it's their fault other people don't succeed. And nobody also wants to see someone get a job or promoted because they belong to a group they don't belong to. I really don't think people believe that your race either makes you a villain that isn't redeemable or a angel that can do no wrong. Those ideas are harmful enough on their own, but when you can't get a job because of it or are passed over for promotion? 

It also hurt those minorities as well as now very few people will believe that the folks that benefited from DEI, black women, transgenders and women in general, are actually competent. Many of them aren't of course, but it is bad for the ones that are that the perception is out there. The old color-blind system was so much better because you knew for a fact that anyone from one of these "marginalized groups" who actually made it had earned it by merit and merit alone. 

I do think that part of the reason why DEI is getting pushed back upon is because it simply doesn't work. There is a competency crisis in the United States right now and these programs are a real reason why. If you hire and promote people based on anything other than merit, you are going to get worse results. The fact that this wasn't obvious remains one of the major mysteries of the past few years. Did these big companies do this because they actually thought it would work? Or were they that scared of Democratic activists? 

What is clear is that they aren't afraid of Democratic activists now. I do think they have some genuine fear of the folks on Team Trump, largely because their outrage is organic while Democratic outrage appears to be mostly astroturf. After all, they all remember what happened with Bud Light, which still hasn't recovered from the Dylan Mulvany boycott. 

But I think most of this is simply the CEO's reading the way things are going. Folks have been talking about a vibe shift and I think I feel it too. The Democrats losing in 2024 in the fashion they did was a mandate of heaven shifting moment. Folks are sick of people being judged for anything other than their merit and things do appear to be changing. 

Another massive wildfire has broken out in the LA area. The Hughes Fire has already burned 9000 acres.

 

A view of the fire with Six Flags Magic Mountain in the foreground, CBS LA/Getty. 

Another massive wildfire, the Hughes fire, has broken out near Los Angeles, and has already burned 9000 acres. CBS LA. The fire broke out near Castaic Lake in a rural area north of Los Angeles. The fire started at 10:45 local time and in an hour the fire had grown to 500 acres in size. The fire has increased dramatically since then, growing to 9000 acres and is still growing. Evacuation orders and warnings have been issued to more than 50,000 people that live in the area. The fire could end up threatening many of the small towns around Santa Clarita, including the town of Castaic itself. 

My Comment:

This fire is already comparable to the Eaton and Palisades fire that devastated Los Angeles and is still burning as of this writing. And here are no signs of the fire slowing down anytime soon. The fire is already at 9000 acres while the Palisades burned 24000 while the Eaton fire burned 14,000. But that happened over weeks and this is one day. 

The weather is a major issue. Though the winds aren't as bad as they were during the earlier fires, they are still really bad. This has whipped the fires into a frenzy. The complete lack of rain this year and the heavy rains last year have also left a lot of wood around to burn as well, and that is fueling this fire. Not to mention the non-existent forest management in the state of California. 

The good news is that most of what has burned is wilderness. The area that is burning right now is the Castaic Lake State Recreation area, which is basically unpopulated. It's hiking trails and fishing spots, not exactly the population density we saw in the Pacific Palisades. 

The problem is that the storm is moving to populated areas. The town of Castaic itself appears to be threatened by the firestorm and the fires may have already reached the town. About 20,000 people live in the town and most of them will have to evacuate. Santa Clarita itself could be threatened eventually, as the storm appears to be moving south. That is a much larger city of 200,000 people and the damage that could be done there would be much larger. 

The one thing I haven't seen the media mention is that there are several hydroelectric dams in the area. Though I doubt anything this fire could do could actually damage the dams, it could indeed disrupt power generation in the region. The Foothill Power plant off of Castaic Lake is already in the burn area and both the Castaic Hydroelectric Plant in the north and the tiny Power Plant #2 to the east could eventually be as well, depending on where the fire goes. Should one or more of these plants be damaged or destroyed it would be a major problem for power generation in California. 

I don't know if this fire will be contained. There are a lot of firefighters and assets in the area and the good thing is that unlike the earlier fires, it's mostly the only game in town. The Eaton and Palisades fire are still going but aren't anywhere near the threat they used to be, so most assets should be able to be used in this fire. 

There will be questions on what caused the fire. It's too early to rule anything out but I suspect arson or accident, largely because we know it isn't lightning. There also doesn't seem to be many major powerlines on google maps in the area set on fire. If I had to guess I am guessing it was either a firebug or some kind of accident, like an out of control campfire or a carelessly thrown away cigarette. 

Either way, this is the last thing that California needs right now. They have been devastated by earlier wildfires and California Governor Gavin Newsom has proven himself incapable of dealing with it. And we will probably see more wildfires until we either see some rain or some reduced winds... 

Four injured in a mass stabbing in Israel, suspect is an American permanent resident.

 

The wine bar where the attack happened. BBC/Reuters.

Four people were injured in a mass stabbing attack committed by an American permanent resident. BBC. The attacker was a citizen of Morocco but was a permanent resident of America in Israel on a tourism visa. He was shot and killed by Israeli police. The suspect being in the country is brewing into a large scandal as border and immigration services objected to the man entering the country but the Shin Bet security service approved it. This is the second mass stabbing attempt in Tel Aviv in four days, with an additional incident ending with an armed civilian putting down the attacker after he had stabbed one person. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly minor story but I thought I should cover it because of the implications it has for both the Israeli and United States border control policies. Not only should this attacker have never been in Israel in the first place, he probably should not have been in the United States either. 

It is fairly shocking that the Shin Bet allowed this man into Israel in the first place. The border and immigration service objected but they were overruled. It's unclear from the reports I have read as to why they objected but it's even more unclear what Shin Bet approved him. They did do a check but didn't find anything, which begs the question, why not?

It's possible that the attacker was actually smart and didn't tell anyone what he was about to do. That isn't outside of the realm of possibility, but if he was that smart he'd be in the top 10% of terrorists and if that was the case you would have thought he would have had a better plan that just stabbing people. I am guessing there probably was a paper trail that the Shin Bet just missed. 

It does show how easy it is to pull off a mass stabbing. This guy was there on a tourist visa and was in one of the more secure countries in the world under an active terror threat beyond most countries and he was still able to stab four people before getting killed. Thankfully nobody was killed but it just shows that any idiot can do this. 

It's also notable that the other attack mentioned in the article was put down by an armed civilian. Lots of folks in Israel carry weapons for pretty obvious reasons and that might have been the difference between the two stabbings. Police had pretty good response to the most recent one but nothing is faster than an armed civilian that happens to be there. It's a good argument for concealed weapons. 

As for Israel itself, it just goes to show that things won't really be peaceful there even as the Gaza war (and the Red Sea conflict with the Houthis) winds down. In addition to these mass stabbings, Israel itself launched a major raid into the West Bank, which was largely unaffected by the Gaza war. Peace in the Middle East is still a long ways away. 

Houthis have decided to pull back on the Red Sea campaign, will only target Israeli flagged ships.

 

Ships in the port of Hodeidah, Yemen. Reuters. 

The Houthis of Yemen have decided to pull back on the anti-shipping Red Sea campaign, vowing to only target Israeli flagged ships. Reuters. The Houthis said they were ending "sanctions" against US and UK flagged shipping, but reserved to right to restart attacks if they are attacked themselves. The cease-fire is dependent on the cease fire in the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli ships would still be targeted but that would stop when the cease fire deal is fully implemented. The war in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was notable for the large number of ships attacked while two ships were sunk outright. Shipping companies have not decided to return to the Red Sea and will continue to use the dramatically longer Cape of Good Hope route that circles Africa. The Houthis still hold the crew of a ship they captured, the Galaxy Leader and there are hopes that they will be released soon as well. 

My Comment:

This news is getting lost due to the drama surrounding the inauguration, so I figured I should cover it while everyone else is ably covering those stories. The end of the Red Sea war is in sight and that is a huge deal for everyone who cares about peace. 

The Houthis campaign was reasonably impressive. Though they only sank two ships and captured another they managed to mostly shut down travel in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. They were able to punch above their weight to a dramatic degree and it was the start to the end of the war between Israel and Hamas that ended the war, not military pressure against them from the United States and United Kingdom. 

Our response to the Houthis was less impressive. They managed to shoot down several of our drones and though they weren't able to damage or sink any of our US Navy ships, we also weren't able to stop there attacks despite many rounds of air strikes. We were able to intercept a large number of missiles and stop some raids, but we weren't able to ever stop the attacks. 

I do think that this is an easy success for Donald Trump. He was able to pressure both Hamas and Israel to end the war and this is collateral from that as well. The Houthis decided that the war was no longer necessary and that's a win for his administration. He might not get too much credit for it, given the media and the fact that the story got buried today, but it's still a major win for him. 

Still, I expect it will take some time before the war ends entirely and shipping returns to the Red Sea. Yemen could go back on this announcement at anytime. And the agreement doesn't cover every ship, Israeli ships could be targeted until their war with Hamas is officially over. Nobody wants to take that kind of risk. 

Either way, when the Red Sea opens up it will be a major win for anyone that needs to ship products. America itself won't see much gain, but both Europe and Asia will see this as a major improvement, one that will save millions of dollars in shipping costs. It should help both their economies.  

The final verdict on the Joe Biden presidency

 

Joe Biden. White House Photo.

Unless you have been living under a rock, today is the last day of the Joe Biden presidency. Tomorrow, barring something extraordinary or diabolical, Donald Trump will be sworn in for a 2nd term after one of the biggest political comebacks in American history. But this post isn't about Trump. It's about the guy that he replaced. 

By any standard, Biden has to go down as a major failure of a president. I can't think of a single thing that he did which was good. I can't say that for any other president. Even ones I disliked, like Clinton and Obama, had some good points in their presidencies and at the very least you can say they didn't harm their party that much. But Biden? Absolute failure. 

Biden's worst performance has to be foreign policy. Biden is pretty much directly responsible for a major erosion in America's image as an invincible world leader. It started early with the absolute failure of policy that was the Afghanistan withdrawal. Donald Trump, of course, ordered the withdrawal, but Biden did not abide by the terms of the deal, which allowed the Taliban to launch an early offensive. That offensive probably would have come anyway and the Afghan government was always doomed, but the absolute disaster where Americans were left behind and Afghan civilians were left hanging off of planes taking off probably wouldn't have happened. 

Biden was also responsible for two of the worst wars that the world has seen since the end of World War II. Both Ukraine and the Gaza wars are wars that could have been prevented. Hamas saw that Biden was week and knew that Biden would not be able to do anything about it due to divisions in his party, so they launched October 7th. 

That war appears that it might end but the war in Ukraine that Biden started? That one is still raging and it is so bad that Trump probably won't be able to stop it. At this point if Trump avoids World War III it will be a miracle. The war was also completely unnecessary. Biden didn't need to support Zelensky, the only world leader that might be worse than Biden and he certainly didn't need to cross a Russian red line by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Hundreds of thousands of people died because Biden just hated Russia that much. 

Biden wasn't any better domestically. I can't think of a thing that he did that helped regular American citizens. And there were more than a few times where he acted like an absolute tyrant. From covid regulations to prosecuting grandmas that walked through the capitol on January 6th, Biden made a mockery of the idea that people have rights. And one of this worst acts was the crusade against his political opponent, Donald Trump. These things absolutely cost him too, folks understood that Biden would take on his political opponents... 

Biden the antifascist looking like a fascist. 

But I think it was the economy where Biden failed the most. Though congress deserves some of the blame for the high inflation, Biden did little to quell it. And his response to criticism on the issue? Gaslighting. The economy was great, anyone who disagrees is spreading misinformation, just look at the stock market! What do you mean you can't afford to live, don't you know this is the best economy in the world? 

And that is probably the most damning thing about Biden. He just couldn't act like he cared. So many folks got so offended by the fact that he just couldn't connect with people when they were suffering. It didn't matter if those folks were the families of dead soldiers or the victims of natural disasters, Biden just didn't care. Obama could do this and so did Clinton, so it's not a Democrat problem. It's a problem with Joe Biden specifically. 

Biden's advanced age was a real problem as well. There is a real question if he was actually running the country for the past four years or if it was his staffers. Mike Johnson the other day said that Biden wasn't even aware that he signed an order banning natural gas exports and you have to wonder was he unable to remember what he was doing or did his staffers mislead him? Either way, it was scary to have a leader that was so clearly compromised and nobody would admit it until his debate collapse last summer. 

I also have to mention the absolute chaos at the border and the fact that Biden brought in millions of people for little reason other than to screw over American workers. Illegal immigration has always been unpopular but at least in the past it was mostly Mexicans. Now, it's folks from all over the world and it's causing massive problems in terms of crime, housing and employment. Out of everything he has done this might be the most unforgivable. 

I find it hard to find anything positive to say about Joe Biden. He was old, creepy, weird and incompetent. But I guess if I had to say something positive, he was at least funny sometimes? He was very easy to mock and if we had a decent and unbiased entertainment industry we could have had a golden age of presidential humor. He was a lot of fun to mock and if there is anything at all I will miss from the past four years it will be the fact that I can't make fun of him anymore. 

As far as historical rankings, I don't think that Biden is the worst. At the end of James Buchanan's presidency, the country was on the verge of civil war and as bad as Biden was, he wasn't that bad, though it was no sure thing at parts of his term. But as for modern presidents after World War II? Biden has to be the worse. Nixon was a good foreign policy president and though Carter had failed at almost everything at least he didn't start any new wars. Biden has very little to show for his four years in office and I am not at all sad to see him go. I sincerely hope that Trump has a lot of success in the next four years and that we can all put the Biden presidency behind us. 

UK Government announces more inquires into grooming gangs after intense pressure from Elon Musk.

 

Elon Musk. AP. 

The UK Government has announced more inquiries into Pakistani grooming gangs after intense pressure from Elon Musk. AP. The announcement includes local inquires as well as a national audit. Musk was able to draw attention to the issue again and has been extremely critical of UK Prime Minster Kier Starmer, who he says did not deal with the offenders when he was England's Chief Prosecutor between 2008 and 2013. The government had previously said there was no need for further investigations, but the government also did not follow the recommendations of the seven year investigation under the former Tory government. 

My Comment:

There is plenty to be critical about Elon Musk, most notably his support for H1B visas, but this is a clear case of Musk doing something incredible with his platform on X. The Pakistani grooming gangs issue was largely dead before Musk resurrected it. And now he has gotten results. 

There are some that would say that bringing up these crimes again is not helpful, but given the scale of these crimes and the racial hatred that fueled them, I would completely disagree. Indeed, I don't think the government of the United Kingdom should be focusing on anything else at all. Having a huge number of young girls being raped, abused and trafficked and the government ignoring it and covering it up should be the biggest scandal in UK history by far. 

Keep in mind what we are talking about. A group of immigrants showed up and immediately starting to groom white girls, specifically because of their race. They didn't target their own girls, only lower class white ones, who they viewed as trash. The government covered this up, in part to deflect against accusations of racism and bigotry against Islam, but mostly because they agreed with the immigrants that these lower class white girls were trash.

This was always more about class than race though. The UK government would have never tollerated this if it had been upper class white girls getting groomed. Maybe not even middle class ones. But the lower classes? They were all trash in the eyes of the government and that allowed them to, if not encourage, at least tolerate the mass rape of a massive number of girls. This wasn't just Pakistani immigrants being horrible, it was the government being horrible as well. And those folks need to be punished along with the rapists. 

And I don't think the punishment these groomers got was anywhere near enough. At the very least every single one of them should have been either deported or imprisoned for life. Indeed, the UK should have brought back the death penalty. But the fact was that many of the folks that complained about these monsters ended up with longer sentences than the rapists. Angry tweets condemning the grooming gangs got long sentences, fathers that tried to rescue their girls got long sentences but the rapists? They did not. 

Will these inquires do much? Probably not. But they are going to damage Starmer and his government. There is a reason why they pushed so hard against any new inquires because the whole thing is likely to turn the people of the United Kingdom against their government. But the huge amount of backlash and anger about this might make police more willing to deal with the issue in the future. My guess is that they won't though, there are few things more worthless than a cop in the UK, and my guess is they will continue to focus on people making mean tweets. 

The energy war in Ukraine continues after a major Russian strike.

 

Ukrainian President Zelensky. AP.

Russia launched a major attack on Ukraine's energy system, knocking it out in some areas. AP. The attack came as a response to a new long range attack on Russian energy and logistics. Russia responded with a massive drone and missile attack on targets throughout Ukraine, ranging from Lviv in the West and Kharkov in the East. The missile and drone strikes were able to knock out power in many regions during harsh winter conditions. It continues a strategy of Russia to destroy Ukraine's ability to generate power, with most domestic production outside of nuclear power plants destroyed. In September Ukraine reported 60% of their power production destroyed and things have gotten worse since then. 

My Comment:

I have criticism for both sides on this story. First the Ukrainians. Launching long range missile strikes into Russia proper is just beyond stupid. Those weapons should absolutely be used near the front to support either their operations in the Kursk salient or, more critically, the Donbas front where they are on the verge of collapse. Doing so also drew more Russian attacks on their infrastructure, which dramatically damages their chances of the war as it could turn civilians against the government. 

For the Russians, why do they continue to do half measures? It makes no sense to make limited strikes on power generation. Russia has the capability to knock out most, if not all, power generation in Ukraine. You don't want to attack the nuclear power plants for pretty obvious reasons (though that hasn't stopped Ukraine from attempting it), but you can cut off the substations that transport that power. And there is absolutely no reason why they couldn't completely cut off power coming in from other countries. 

But so far they have mostly held back. This strike was effective but it wasn't so effective that it knocked power out for good. What are the Russians thinking? I am guessing it is genuine humanitarian concern. Russia has largely avoided hitting civilian targets, on purpose at least, and they do not seem to want to cause mass civilian casualties. 

I disagree with this, obviously. Russia's primary concern is to end the war and though knocking out the power grid in the middle of winter would probably cause some civilian casualties, it would win the war dramatically faster. That would mean that a lot more people would get to live on both sides. 

I also think that it's extremely unlikely that the war will end any other way than a Russian victory and the destruction of the Ukrainian state. Though I think Putin and Trump could cut a deal, why would Putin? He might be able to trust Trump to uphold any deal, but there is no way he could trust the next President, regardless of which party he belongs to. The West already betrayed Russia once during this war so diplomacy is not really an option. So anything that speeds up the eventual Russian victory

Congress passes ban on biological males participating in female sports

 

A placard at the event announcing the legislation. Fox News/Getty.

Congress has passed a ban on transgender students participating in sports that do not match their biological sex. Fox News. The bill passed, 218 to 206 with two Democrats joining the Republicans in passing the bill, while a third Democrat, Don Davis, voted "present". The bill will be taken up by the Senate next. The bill would ban transgender males from participating in woman's sports in schools between Kindergarten and High School, and would also ban it from colleges and universities that receive federal funds. The participation of male to female transgender students in female sports has been very controversial due to issues including fairness and fears about sexual assault in locker rooms. 

My Comment:

There absolutely has been a shift on this issue and I think a few Democrats are realizing how badly the issue plays for them. The two Democrats that voted for this bill (and one that voted present) are in districts that are trending red in red states and they understand that the issue could sink their chances in 2026 if they didn't do something. 

The bill seems pretty unlikely to pass in the Senate. Current control of the Senate is 53-47 and the filibuster limit is 60, so unless 7 Democrats flip to support the bill or the filibuster gets blown up, it's not likely to pass. Donald Trump would sign the law if it were to make his desk, but I just don't know if there are 7 Democrats that would cross over to vote for it. 

Donald Trump is likely to take executive action if the legislation fails to pass, so it's mostly a moot point. But I think it's important to discuss because it shows how much the tide is changing on this issue. The pendulum on transgenders has absolutely swung away from their camp and towards people that are skeptical of all aspects of the ideology. 

I do think that the transgender issue was one that helped cost the Democrats the presidency in 2024. Folks were mostly on board when it was just adults living their lives but the actions of the activists have turned people off. Indeed, the participation of grown men in girls sports, pretty much ruined them. Not only were records being broken by people that had an obvious biological advantage, there were even a few cases of women getting injured by biological men that were dramatically larger and stronger then them. It was something that really wasn't defensible and even the "live and let live" folks were disgusted by it. 

Either way, I do think that this is an easy win for Republicans no matter what. If the bill passes they manage to fix a problem that they were put into office to deal with. If the Democrats refuse to pass it in the Senate they have a campaign issue in 2026, even if Trump deals with it at the Executive level. Like I said, it's a winning issue for Republicans and an absolute albatross for the Democrats. 

I also think that this is another example of how much the culture appears to be shifting in the wake of Trump winning a 2nd term. Things just seem different now to the point where even Democrats are speaking out against the excesses of "wokism". Trump getting elected gave cover to folks who were never comfortable with the far left turn the country took in the last decade and a half permission to speak out...

Ceasefire deal and hostage release between Hamas and Israel very close to happening...

 

A man inspects damage in Gaza. NBC News/AFP.

A ceasefire deal and hostage release between Hamas and Israel is very close to happening. NBC News. After 15 months of fighting, both sides appear close to a deal. Under the proposal, Hamas would release a large number of hostages 48 hours after a ceasefire is called. Israel would pull out of Gaza under the terms of the deal. The withdrawal and hostage release would occur during three phases. There is pressure to get a deal passed before Donald Trump is inaugurated on the 20th as he has vowed that "all hell would break loose" if a deal wasn't made before he came into office. 

My Comment:

Positive news on the Israel-Hamas war front. It looks like the war will finally end and possibly very soon. The deal hasn't been made yet but it does seem like both sides would get much of what they want from the deal. Israel would get their hostages back and Hamas would see the end to the war. 

There is a lot of pressure from both Biden and Trump that is kind of forcing a deal here as well. Biden wants to salvage anything from his presidency and ending the war in Gaza would be a rare win for him, even though he wouldn't be able to take full credit. 

Why? Because Trump would get a lot of credit as well. He has put a lot of pressure on both Israel and Hamas to get a deal done because he is absolutely going to have bigger fish to fry in terms of foreign policy. Ending the Ukraine war alone will be a nightmare and getting the Israel-Hamas war off of the board would be a major win, especially if it happens before he is even President. 

There is, of course, a chance that the deal would fall apart. Both sides hate each other and have a lot of reasons to try and continue the war. Hamas gets funds and support from the war and Israel wants to finally end the threat of Hamas. But I think it will probably happen, both sides have a lot of battle fatigue and Israel has the new threat of Turkey to worry about, which I wrote about here.

If a deal does happen, not everyone will be happy about it. I have already seen some hardliner Israel supporters who are upset with the prospect of a deal. I am less tuned in to the pro-Hamas side for obvious reasons, but I think there could be a few hardliners there too that would be upset at the prospect of a deal. 

And there is also a possibility that the peace isn't going to last. Who knows if the Houthis will continue the war? And the specter of Turkey looms over the region, given the collapsing relations between Israel and Turkey. It's very possible that Hamas will use any peace deal as an opportunity to rearm and ready themselves for another October 7th style attack... 

Still, that's all in the future, in the short term it's hard to see any deal as a negative. Like I said, everyone has something to gain from it at this point, and not just Hamas and Israel. Ending the war would be a huge win for everyone involved and I sincerely hope it happens. 

Were the California fires the result of arson?

 

Damage caused by the Eaton fire. NBC News/AP

As the California wildfires have raged, questions have been raised if the fires were natural occurrences or the result of arson. NBC News. Investigators are still looking at the cause of the series of wildfires that have burned thousands of acres and killed 24 people, and have only ruled out lightning as a cause. The Eaton fire, which burned 14,000 acres as of this writing, was likely caused by powerlines. During high winds, powerlines can collide which creates molten metal that can easily start a fire in dry conditions. The Palisades fire is not likely to be caused by power lines due to the fact that the fire started deep in the woods, 500 feet from a trailhead. It is possible that the fire was started by human action, though that does not mean it was intentional. Other, smaller fires may have been created by arsonists though. The Kenneth fire lead to an arrest by police after civilians detained a man they said started the fire, though he was not charged with the crime due to a lack of evidence. 

My Comment:

The fires in Los Angeles might have different causes for different fires and I thought it would be smart to cover them. I think some of these can easily be ruled out. I don't think for a second that this was directed energy weapons like the conspiracy theorists claim, that's too fantastical to believe. Lightning too can obviously be ruled out due to the weather conditions having no rain, let alone storms, to cause them. 

That leaves quite a few possibilities. I think that the Eaton fire was almost certainly "natural", which isn't the best term to use when talking about a powerlines fire. Obviously a powerline fire is human created, but it wasn't deliberate action. But given that the fire started near powerlines it would be extraordinary if it was caused by anything else. 

And I think that the Kenneth fire, which is now contained thankfully, was likely caused by an arsonist. The man arrested was not charged with that but there is a strong circumstantial case for his responsibility. He was seen starting a fire and was armed with fire starting tools. That won't hold up in a criminal case, but I am guessing if civil charged were ever filed against him, he would lose his case on the "preponderance of the evidence standard". 

That leaves the rest of the fires, most notably the biggest and still uncontrolled Palisades fire. That one is a true mystery and the only thing we can really rule out is lighting and powerlines. Given the location it's possible that it was an accidental fire caused by homeless people. It wouldn't take much, some sparks from a campfire, a stray cigarette butt, or someone screwing around with fire works, and then you have a major fire. 

It's possible it was started by a human deliberately as an act of arson as well. If so, we might not ever hear about it. The last thing folks want to do is confirm that one of California's worst disaster was caused by human action, on purpose, because the obvious threat of copycats. You could even argue that the Kenneth fire was a result of this phenomenon. 

And it's very possible that some of the other fires were caused by arson. There have been unconfirmed and confirmed reports of folks starting fires for whatever reason during this disaster. Some of those cases could be deliberate, but most of them seem to have been low scale and in a way that didn't really contribute to the firestorms. 

What I do know is that the fires in California are not due to a major conspiracy. This wasn't a BlackRock attack to try and buy up all the property in California and it wasn't one of America's enemies launching a major attack. Why? Because there would have been way more fires if that was the case. As large as these fires have been, they are not so large that I would think that there was coordinated actions to start them. 

As for the fires themselves, it's unclear how long this disaster is going to last. Of the three major fires, one of them, the Hurst fire, appears to be coming under control. The Palisades and Eaton fires are continuing but they are appearing to slow down as there is not much fuel left in either case. But the weather forecast is not good and there is a possibility that the fires will be whipped up again due to high Santa Ana winds. And there certainly is a chance of further fires before the winds calm down... 

Massive Palisades and Eaton wildfire devastate portions of Los Angeles.

 

Firefighters battling the Palisades fire. AP. 

The massive Palisades and Eaton wildfires have devastated portions of Los Angeles. AP. Five people have died and more than 1000 structures have been destroyed in the wildfires. The fires were fueled by hurricane force Santa Anna winds and dry conditions, in a rare January firestorm. Firefighters were hampered by the conditions and lack of power and water, but it was unlikely they would have been able to stop the storms. The Palisades fire alone is now the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles, and it was joined by the Eaton fire and now another fire in the Hollywood Hills. The Pacific Palisades neighborhood was devastated. 

Fox News has live updates for the disaster. 

My Comment:

The videos and pictures from this disaster are insane. Los Angeles really did turn into a hellscape yesterday and today and it's hard to even believe or comprehend the level of devastation. The fact that only five people have died so far is quite amazing given the amount of destruction and how fast these firestorms moved. 

And it's not like Los Angeles is out of the woods yet. The storms are continuing and are not contained and now the Hollywood Hills are burning as well. Thankfully the extreme wind that fueled these storms are no longer present for the moment. And it looks like Los Angeles proper will be safe from these fires, if not from all the smoke the fires produced. 

Some of the victims of the storm are celebrities, including Mark Hamill, Mandy Moore and James Woods. Woods has been a good source of information, surprisingly enough. He lost his house and he also said that the insurance companies canceled the policies of the folks in his neighborhood, probably because this disaster was pretty predictable. 

I think that California has a lot of blame for this disaster, especially at the leadership level. This is not going to go well for California governor Gavin Newsom or LA Mayor Karen Bass. Bass is getting slammed for not even being in the country during the disaster, she was in Ghana, of all places, when this storm started and she hasn't been covering herself in glory since she has come back. 

In some ways these kinds of storms are not preventable. California has a long history of wildfires and given the Santa Anna winds and dry conditions, fires were pretty inevitable. There are things you can't really stop and these storms are probably one of them. 

But there were also a lot of things that could have been done a lot better than they were. California's fire management system is horrible and they have let far too much brush and debris pile up and that leads to massive fires. Gavin Newsom has also blocked efforts to refill the states reservoir's, which may be a reason why fire hydrants didn't work during the worst of the fire. Even worse, there are reports that the city's surplus fire equipment was sent to Ukraine, of all places, instead of being stockpiled for this eventuality. 

Given how bad these storms were I don't know how much these things affected the storm. But you would have to think things might not have gotten this bad had the leadership of California been at all competent. I'd also add that since California is a de facto one party state, so the Democrats own this disaster. I would hope that this would lead to some change in the state, but I just don't believe that is even possible at this point... 

High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime. Could a war be possible?

 

President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Jerusalem Post/Reuters.

High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime, to the point where a war is possible. The Jerusalem Post. Relations between the two nations have been ice cold since the October 7th attack launched the war against Hamas. Turkey is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which also supports Hamas. Turkey is also upset with Israel over contacts they have with US backed Kurdish militias in Northern Syria, which Turkey considers a terrorist threat. Israel feels they need to work with the Kurds to counter Iranian moves in Syria, even if it angers Turkey. 

My Comment:

There are some major arguments against a war between Israel and Turkey, the most obvious being that any such conflict would obviously endanger any relationship Turkey has with NATO. I can't see Donald Trump, or any American President, signing off on a war with Israel, it just couldn't happen without NATO taking action against Turkey. 

Israel too is not likely to want to start a conflict with Turkey. They are, after all, bogged down in a two front war. They have, temporarily, knocked Hezbollah out of the war, but they are still facing both Hamas and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The last thing they need is a major conflict with Turkey, even if it is just limited to the forces both countries have in Syria. 

But relations are terrible between the two countries right now. It's hard to underestimate how much Turkey and Erdogan absolutely despise the Kurds. Some of that hatred is explained by the fact that the PKK is a communist terrorist groups responsible for several atrocities. The fact is though, that the PKK isn't the only group of Kurds and Turkey does not seem to recognize that fact. They treat all Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq as if they were members of the PKK. To be fair, they do have some links, but it's not like there isn't a difference between the groups, the YPG, the main Kurdish militia in Syria, are not terrorists. 

Israel does not have formal relations with the YPG but they do support them largely because they can be used as a force to diminish Iranian influence in the region. It's very much an "enemy of my enemy" situation, but Israel apparently thinks having relations with them is more important than not angering the Turks. 

The Hamas war is obviously a huge problem as well, Turkey and Hamas are not direct allies but Turkey absolutely has sympathy for their beliefs and actions. Given that those actions include the atrocities on October 7th, it's understandable why Israel is upset with Turkey and their leadership. 

Still, a war is still unlikely. Mostly because the areas where Turkey is active and the areas where Israel are active are on opposite sides of the country. Turkey is obviously more concerned with their border areas with Syria in the north part of the country, while Israel is more concerned with their border in the south. How the Israeli and Turkish forces in Syria would even interact when they are not even in the same region is beyond me. 

But you never know what could happen. A war isn't outside the realm of possibility. Such a conflict would be horrifying as both Turkey and Israel are both modern countries with advanced weapons. I would think that Turkey would have the advantage as they have a huge army with modern weapons but Israel has a long history of punching above their weight class. 

The real fear is that Turkey would win the war and then Israel would respond with the Sampson option, launching their supply of nuclear weapons to take out cities in Turkey. Such a conflict would be horrific and would cost millions of lives. That's the worst case scenario of course, but it should be in the back of the mind of both Israel and Turkey before they consider any conflict... 

Justin Trudeau resigns as Prime Minster of Canada...

 

Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minster of Canada, will resign as soon as his party chooses new leadership. Fox News. Trudeau cited internal opposition in his party as the reason he could no longer serve. Trudeau saw his approval ratings collapse due to high cost of living and inflation in Canada. Trudeau had lost support from his Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, who wrote a scathing resignation letter criticizing Trudeau's economic policies and warned Canada of the threat levied by President Elect Donald Trump to issue tariffs. Trudeau's resignation gives his party, the Liberal Party, a chance to right the ship before the election in October. It is unclear who will take over as a caretaker Prime Minster. 

My Comment:

I am not sad to see Justin Trudeau, I have been extremely critical of him, to the point where I made a joke with my Dad that I wasn't sure if I would be allowed in the country when he suggested going fishing in Canada. And I am not even sure I was joking, I was extremely harsh to Trudeau during the Freedom Convoy protests, to the point where I supported the protests against his government. 

Trudeau had come under withering criticism recently, not for his asinine covid restrictions or his tyranny when it comes to guns, but due to the economy. Canada has not kept up with the United States in terms of growth ever since Trudeau took power. And that doesn't even include the absolute mess that is the housing crisis in Canada. 

Indeed, there are several reasons why housing is so expensive in a country that has a huge amount of space to build. Part of it is China buying up real estate in Canada, keeping prices high. This is such a priority for China they have interfered in Canadian elections to keep Trudeau in power. 

The elephant in the room is the massive wave of immigration that has fundamentally changed Canada. The majority of these immigrants appear to be low skilled workers from India and they have not behaved well at all. Indeed, the behavior of these immigrants has been so poor it has caused a global backlash against Indians and India itself. I am sure that if Canada hadn't done this the H1B visa issue here in the United States would not have blown up the way it has. Everyone has heard the horror stories of the behavior of Indians in Canada and the backlash has been severe. 

Trudeau also seemed to downplay the threat that Donald Trump posed to Canada. I do think he is serious when he says that he will impose tariffs on Canada if they don't give Trump the concessions he wants. And I also don't think that his "jokes" about Canada being annexed by the United States are actual jokes, he's not 100% serious but he is absolutely floating the idea of taking over, which is something Canada should be taking seriously. I never got the impression that Trump and Trudeau actually liked each other, the way Trump likes some other world leaders, like Macron of France and the former president of Mexico, AMLO. Trudeau is absolutely the wrong person to deal with Trump. 

Of course the problem now is that who on earth is going to replace Trudeau. Given the fact that the Liberal Party is likely to get wiped out in the next election, who is going to volunteer, except some self serving person that wants "Prime Minster" on their resume. I'm no expert on Canadian politics, so I won't float any names, but I can't imagine they are going to get someone good to serve until October and take the blame for Trudeau's failures when they lose the election. 

I have to say out of all the world leaders I hated Trudeau the most. I hate how smugly lefty he was and how arrogant he was about the United States. I hated how he used one incident to try and ban guns throughout his country. And I hate how much of a failure he is, truly, Mexico has been run better than Canada since Trudeau took power... 

Heavy fighting reported in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching attacks.

 

A Russian vehicle destroyed in the Kursk region. Forbes/Ukrainian military photo. 

Heavy fighting has broken out in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching major attacks. Forbes. Russia launched attacks on the northwest portion of the incursion, near the villages of Malaya Loknya, Leonidovo and Sverdlikovo. The attack involved 40 armored vehicles and may have been the largest attack in the region since Ukraine launched the attack on the region. Ukraine launched their own attack near the village of Berdin in the northeast portion of the incursion, advancing about two miles. Both sides incurred heavy losses though it is unclear if either side accomplished much. Russia may have had a more difficult time of it as their attack was expected and was in an area that has seen heavy combat while the Ukrainians attacked in a quieter sector. 

My Comment:

I still struggle to think of why the Ukrainians are still trying to make the Kursk incursion happen. I know the primary goal was the Kursk nuclear power plant, so they could hold it hostage as a nuclear threat, but that isn't going to happen. Russian forces in the area are still too strong and the resources being used there should be used elsewhere. 

As for the Russians, I am not sure this was the wisest attack either. Ukraine knew that this attack was coming and was able to blunt it. I know the goal for the Russians is to kick Ukraine out of their territory but I think it might be wiser to attack them on other fronts in the region. The Kursk incursion is a rather large salient and they could attack into Ukraine to fully cut it off, but instead they are trying to reduce the salient instead. 

Ukraine's attack appears to have been somewhat successful but gaining two miles is not really that important in the grand scheme of things. The area was not well defended and wasn't expecting an attack, but they still took some losses in trying to take this area. And we don't even know if they will be able to keep what they have taken, the article said that the troops there were dismounted infantry and they will be extremely vulnerable to artillery and drone strikes if they aren't able to dig in. 

It also marks a return by both sides to something that doesn't seem to work very well anymore, massed armor attacks. Both sides bunched up their vehicles and both sides took heavy losses in their vehicles because they did so. Both sides have very good intelligence about what the other side is doing and when you mass vehicles like this it gets found out quickly. Russia had seen success with smaller attacks with isolated armor working with motorcycle calvary in other parts of Ukraine so I am not sure why they went back to massed armor here in Kursk. 

Either way, the Kursk front has always been a distraction. Ukraine wants to hold onto it as a bargaining chip for any negotiations but that assumes that Russia is willing to negotiate in the first place, which seems unlikely. The cost is that they have weakened their other fronts, most notably near Pokrovsk, which I wrote about last week. That logistic hub is in danger of falling and if it does, Russia will be able to use it as a springboard for further attacks, and a large section of eastern Ukraine will be cut off from supply lines. 

That front is where Ukraine should be concentrating forces and launching surprise attacks. Russia is not going to be distracted by an attack in Kursk when they are so close to a major war objective in Pokrovsk. So all the attack in Kursk is going to accomplish is good headlines. 

And headlines is all Ukraine has at this point. Launching this attack may not have made much military sense but it's a "victory" in a campaign that has seen little lately. I still think that Ukraine's main goal right now is to try and convince incoming President Donald Trump to not pull the plug on their war. Will a minor attack in the Kursk incursion change Trump's mind? Probably not, but what else can Ukraine do? 

I hope that the war does end soon. Ukraine is rapidly running out of weapons and equipment but they haven't completely exhausted them and are still capable of some small offensive operations. And if they do end up drafting their younger men, they could have the manpower to delay their defeat through much of the year. But I would hope that they see the writing is on the wall and would end the war before more people on both sides have to die. 

Ukrainian unit trained in France falls apart immediately after being deployed to Pokrovsk.

 

Leopard II Tank. The Telegraph/Getty.

An Ukrainian unit trained in France has fallen apart after being deployed to Pokrovsk in the war against Russia. The Telegraph. The 155th mechanized brigade had 1700 troops go AWOL before even firing a shot. 50 deserted while the unit was being trained in France. 500 of the troops that went AWOL never returned to the unit before it was deployed to the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, which is a major target for Russia. The 155th, known as the Anne of Kiev unit, was largely destroyed during the battle of Pokrovsk, with its remnants folded into other units in the region. The unit lost many tanks and armored vehicles in the fighting. Much of the issue was the fact that the unit was made up of raw recruits with very few members having any military training. The unit also failed to have any drones assigned to it, which is a critical failure in modern warfare. 

My Comment:

The 155th is a good example of how bad things are getting for Ukraine. The unit was barely able to be staffed as many recruits were picked off by other units and when they did find people? A large portion of them deserted before then even got deployed and even more did afterwards. 

Part of the problem is the way Ukraine is training their units. Instead of reconstructing their veteran units so they have a good mix of new recruits and veterans, they are sending new recruits in this major units to get destroyed. Though these men were trained in France, they still did not last long and what they really needed was the presence of combat veterans to give them some backbone. 

I am not surprised that so many of them deserted. Many Ukrainian men have been gang pressed into the fighting and even the volunteers have to see the writing on the wall. Ukraine probably can't hold out through the end of 2025 and nobody wants to be the last one to die in a pointless war. And the folks that deserted in France itself are probably the smartest ones. Not only do they avoid combat they also get to start a new life in France, which is probably unlikely to deport them. 

The fact that this unit was kitted out with new foreign weapons, like the Leopard II tank and the French Caesar Howitzers, but had a complete lack of drones is just insane to me. Drone warfare is not optional in modern conflict and without any recon drones the 155th would be fighting blind. It's little wonder that they got mauled so bad. And it also goes to show how bad things are going in terms of supplies. This was a major unit and Ukraine couldn't find any drones for them? 

I do think that the Russian way of doing things is a lot smarter. They rotate units instead of leaving them on the front forever only to be replaced by new recruits. This allows units to rest and recuperate and rebuild in safety. But Ukraine's effort is so much worse and is a big reason they are having so many problems with their troops. 

As for the war itself, it has faded into the background, but it seems clear that no matter what Donald Trump decides to do. Ukraine has simply ran out of men while Russia is able to replace their losses. Given the huge number of desertions in this unit and others and the major manpower and weapons shortages I don't see how Ukraine survives the year.