A blog about Politics, Warfare, Culture and how they interact. I comment on current events and post occasional essays.
Friday, June 30, 2023
Riots continue in France over a police shooting...
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Supreme Court overrules Affirmative Action for colleges in blockbuster ruling.
Wednesday, June 28, 2023
Quran burning protest in Sweden causes outrage in the Muslim world.
#Sweden:
— Aceu™ (@AceJaceu) June 28, 2023
In Stockholm, Sweden, on the first day of Eid al-Adha, a person named Salwan Momika, of Iraqi origin, accompanied by police protection, burned the Holy Quran in front of a mosque.
Does Sweden have laws on hate crime or rabble-rousing?
pic.twitter.com/Su3uQIS3UC
My Comment:
I'm actually kind of surprised that Sweden actually stood up for free speech here. Far too often governments have chosen security over freedom and not offending the Muslim world over protecting free speech. And they did it even knowing that there were going to be consequences, most notably with Turkey.
Turkey was already trying to keep Sweden out of NATO and now I think they will make sure that Sweden never joins the alliance. Allowing this protest has damaged relations with Turkey, relations that were already bad because of Sweden's support of the Kurds, and Sweden joining NATO was a longshot already.
Turkey is probably the least of Sweden's problems. Protests like this have resulted in multiple terror attacks, riots and general disorder. Though Islamic terrorism is not the threat it once was, everyone involved in this protest has put a target on their heads and so has the Swedish government. Given the huge number of Muslim migrants in Sweden the potential for violence is extremely high.
As for the protest itself, I have mixed feelings. My general feeling is that people should be able to protest Islam if they want and if someone is violent in response that's on them. Offensive speech is the speech you should protect the most. I have always hated the fact that people back down when Muslims threaten people and I myself used an image of Mohamad, forbidden in Islam, as my profile picture on social media for a very long time in protest of the threats against such displays.
That doesn't mean I think this was a good idea. Like I said, Islamic terrorism has faded into the background and this protest will likely inflame it all over again. Was it really necessary to protest this way? Probably not. I support the right for these protesters to protest Islam, Islam should not be free from criticism. But I also think it wasn't the time.
Speaking of time, today was Eid al-Adha, a major Islamic holiday. Staging the protest today, on one of the biggest festivals in the Muslim world, was not a mistake and shows that these folks are more interested in trolling than actually making a point. That, and the fact that they staged this protest in front of a mosque makes me think that these guys are more about hating Muslims themselves rather than criticizing Islam itself.
Indeed, the protests reminds me more of the Westboro Baptist Church. They had their beliefs too and I did support their rights to protests. But it was clear it was always more about making people angry than actually making a point. They would always protest at funerals and I don't see too much difference between them and this current protest.
Still, like I always say, free speech isn't free if people with annoying or vile opinions aren't protected. Even though I don't think this protest was wise and it's clear that it was about trolling instead of any actual criticism, I do support the fact that it was allowed. Damn the consequences
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Air quality in the Midwest is terrible right now...
Monday, June 26, 2023
Russia is launching more airstrikes in Syria.
Russia has launched multiple airstrikes in Syria. BBC. Nine people were killed in a airstrike near Jisr al-Shughour while two more killed in an airstrike near Idlib city. Russia did not comment on the attack but Syria says terrorists and rebels were targeted and destroyed in the airstrikes. Rebel aligned groups like the White Helmets say the strikes hit civilians. Syria said the attacks were in retaliation for the deaths of several civilians by artillery and drone strikes. Fighting in Syria has died down since Turkey and Russia organized a ceasefire. Russia's air campaign has greatly helped Syria's forces in the civil war.
My Comment:
The Syrian Civil War and the Russian precipitation in it has certainly fallen out of the news. Indeed, many people probably think the war is over. But these airstrikes certainly prove that the war is not over quite yet.
Fighting has died down quite a bit, largely due to the rebel funding being cut off and the success of Russian forces. The war continues but at a much lower temperature and without the major duel threats of ISIS and al-Nusra, who are now shells of their former selves.
It's pretty unclear who exactly was killed in this air raid. Syria says it was all terrorists and rebels while the rebel aligned White Helmets say it was just civilians. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, who strikes me as being more in the middle, says it was a mix of both. I would probably go with the latter as that makes the most sense but in war it's often hard to tell the difference between a fighter and a civilian.
What is somewhat shocking to me is that Russia still has forces in Syria, given the scale and importance of the Ukraine conflict. Though airpower has not proven to be all that useful for either side in the conflict due to the quality of both sides air defenses you would think that Russia would want everything they have fighting there.
I think it's another example of the war in Ukraine going better for Russia than is commonly reported. If Russia was truly in danger of losing there they would not have a bunch of fighter jets fighting in Syria. Though Syria is a big ally of Russia and the port there in Tartus is a strategic asset, it's not anywhere near as important as the Ukraine conflict so if Russia was losing they would have pulled out their fighters...
Biden "jokes" about selling state secrets...
Today on Twitter a video of Joe Biden joking about selling state secrets has gone viral. The clip came from Biden's meeting with Indian Prime Minster Modi. Here's an example of the clip.
BIDEN (last week): "I sold a lot of state secrets and a lot of very important things..." pic.twitter.com/eyEaQEevRp
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 26, 2023
The clip does cut off the fact that Biden said he was joking after that. Here's another clip:
Marjorie Taylor Greene and other conservatives are sharing a cut from a video that appears to show Joe Biden admitting to selling state secrets.
— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) June 27, 2023
Some conservatives are claiming that this shows Biden is corrupt while others are claiming that it is evidence of dementia.
Context… pic.twitter.com/Tf19ySzplP
Of course that clip was cut to remove the several seconds of senile old man rambling that Joe Biden made before then. Nobody here is really covering themselves in honesty here...
With all that being said, this is an extremely bad look for Joe Biden. The joke came after reports saying both Hunter and Joe Biden accepted bribes from Bursima, an Ukrainian energy company and various other reports of corruption from the Biden family. Joking about that in this context? Terrible idea.
With Biden you never really know what he is thinking. It's possible that Biden was just joking, trying to downplay the news in front of the Indian leaders. It shows that he doesn't take the charges seriously and expects to survive them.
It could even be a sarcastic but real confession. A message to his enemies that he's 100% guilty of the accusations against him and a middle finger to them because he knows that nobody will be able to do anything about it. He has the built in defense that he was joking too.
Regardless, it's a horrible look for Biden and one that will confirm to a lot of people that he is indeed guilty of selling state secrets. It doesn't help his cause that the edited clip is the one that went viral, but it's not like the context is much better...
Sunday, June 25, 2023
My thoughts on the Wagner "coup attempt" in Russia
Thursday, June 22, 2023
Joe Biden plays down the fact that he called Chinese President Xi a "dictator".
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
Ukraine President admits offensive is "slower than desired", Russian president observes "lull" in fighting.
Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Hunter Biden gets off, pleads guilty to two minor tax charges, avoids felony gun crime conviction.
Monday, June 19, 2023
New poll says 71% of Americans agree that Joe Biden is too old to be president, including half of Democrats.
Sunday, June 18, 2023
Ukraine is faltering in its offensive due to Russia's advantage in air power and artillery.
Friday, June 16, 2023
Vladimir Putin confirms that tactical nuclear weapons are now in Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that tactical nuclear weapons have been delivered to Belarus. BBC. The weapons would only be used if Russia's territory or state was threatened, with the United States remarking that Russia is not planning any kind of strike. Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller weapons designed to be used on the battlefield with a minimum of fallout and collateral damage compared to strategic nuclear weapons. Belarus is a major Russian ally and has allowed the country to be used as a staging area for attacks on Ukraine. Putin remarked that the move was for "containment" and said that "extreme measures" could be used against those that would threaten Russian statehood.
My Comment:
This is a fairly significant deployment and one that should hopefully deter a wider war in the region. There had been rumblings that Belarus should be invaded by certain NATO members but this would surly deter them. Well, hopefully, in a sane world any plans to attack Belarus while it was armed with nukes would be vetoed by the powers that be. Too bad we don't have a sane world anymore.
I don't have any worry about these weapons being used by Putin. He has zero reason to use tactical nukes against NATO or against Ukraine for that matter. If the war turned against him to the point where Ukrainian tanks were threatening Moscow? Maybe then. But that's even more unlikely than Russian tanks threatening Paris. Putin has no reason to use nukes.
What does worry me a bit about this is how secure these weapons are going to be. Belarus doesn't exactly strike me as a competent and secure country, it's possible these weapons could be lost, sold or stolen. My hope is that Putin will assign Russian troops to guard and operate these weapons and not leave it up the armed forces of Belarus or their commander, Aleksandr Lukashenko.
If a nuclear war does break out over Ukraine I think it would be more likely that NATO is the one that is responsible. They are getting more and more desperate as Ukraine's offensive has largely failed and the country is running out of equipment. It would be insane to deploy tactical nukes to Ukraine for use on Russian forces but I also thought it was insane to send German tanks and American F-16's to the war as well. Both of those things are now happening, so why not tactical nukes? It's not like our leadership cares that much about nuclear war, they think they will survive it and they don't give a damn if the people they are supposed to be responsible for get killed in a nuclear holocaust.
Regardless, I do think this is another example of how the war in Ukraine has backfired in NATO. Before the war, keeping Belarus from having tactical nukes would have been a major priority for many obvious reasons. But now it has happened and isn't likely to be reversed anytime soon. It really didn't need to happen but it has and there is no going back.
Wednesday, June 14, 2023
Daniel Penny indicted for incident where Jordan Neely, a homeless person, died after making threats.
Daniel Penny during his May 12th arrest. CBS News/Getty.
Marine veteran Daniel Penny has been indicted for manslaughter relating to an incident where Jordan Neeley, a homeless man making threats, died. CBS News. Neely was acting erratically and making death threats to Penny and other people on a subway train. Penny restrained Neely with a neckhold and Neely eventually died. Penny says he never intended to hurt Neely, instead he was trying to protect himself and others. The case and the indictment has caused outrage across the political spectrum.
My Comment:
I have to admit that I failed here. I could not find a shareable video of the actual incident that didn't have censorship or some idiot giving commentary over it. I tried Google, Bing and Yandex and the best I could find was this tweet that did have the video but I was unable to embed it for some reason. The option wasn't even there. Even that tweet was pretty biased as well, though I do agree with it.
I consider this a miscarriage of justice. It's obvious that Penny did the right thing when the restrained Neely. Everything we have heard about Neely is that he was a danger to himself and others. He had a long criminal history and I honestly don't care that he died.
I also don't think that the prosecutors will be able to prove that Penny is guilty of 2nd Degree Manslaughter. Under New York law 2nd Degree Manslaughter requires someone to recklessly cause a death. It would require that Penny had engaged in conduct that causes a "substantial and unjustified" risk of death, he was aware that death could be result and that no reasonable person would agree was a justified reaction.
On all three counts Penny passes the test. The chokehold that Penny put Neely in might not have caused the death. Given he was having a mental issue and had a history of drug use it was possible, likely even, that he died because of his actions, not because of the chokehold. Given that Neely was alive when Penny let him go and that he died in the hospital it's very possible that he didn't even die from the actions of Penny.
As for Penny being aware that he could cause a death, I am not sure he was. He didn't seem to think that the chokehold was harming Neely and, again, he was probably right. He was probably acting on his training in the Marine Corps and may have done the same thing in training with nobody getting hurt. Chokeholds can be dangerous but mostly when you knock someone out with them. Penny didn't do that.
As for the reasonable person standard, I think it's pretty clear that most people are on Penny's side. Given that Neely was making death threats, acting erratically and could attack someone at any time I think Penny was more than justified in restraining Penny. It might not reach the standard of lethal force but, again, he didn't use lethal force.
Even if the jury somehow decides that Penny doesn't pass that test they might decide to let him go anyways. This seems like a perfect case for jury nullification. There is no reason that even if the prosecution proves the case, which I don't think they can do, the jury can't decide to let him go.
Regardless, I never understood the "outrage" in this case. Indeed, the vast majority of commentary praised Penny and was angry that the idea of charging him ever came up. Even in New York people wanted Penny to go free.
Why? Because people are sick and tired of crime. Most people in New York have had encounters with crazed homeless people on public transportation and wish that they had someone like Penny to help them while being threatened, mugged or attacked.
Hopefully this case will result in Penny going free. I do think that the pendulum is swinging against crime in this country. I mean, compare this case to the George Floyd case. The circumstances were similar, crazed drug user gets restrained and dies. In that case there was a conviction and riots, in this case though? I think we will see the opposite outcome.
Tuesday, June 13, 2023
Russia shows video of captured Ukrainian Leopard tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
Monday, June 12, 2023
US to send even more aid to Ukraine, $325 million in emergency aid along with $2 billion for longer term aid...
The United States will send even more aid to Ukraine, including $325 million in emergency aid along with $2 billion in longer term aid. VOA. The immediate aid will focus on providing Bradley and Stryker armored personal carriers to replace heavy losses in Ukraine's new offensive. They will also send missiles and rockets for various artillery systems. Ukraine lost more than a dozen Bradley fighting vehicles almost immediately during their offensive. The long term aid included Patriot Missile batteries to replace the one that was destroyed in a Russian airstrike along with small hand held Puma drones.
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Russian ship fights off Ukrainian drone attack.
A Russian intelligence ship fought off an Ukrainian drone attack in the Black Sea. Reuters. Six high speed kamakazie drone boats attacked the Russian ship Priazovye. The ship was there to protect pipelines and monitor the war in Ukraine. A US Global Hawk drone was in the vicinity of the ship during the attack. The pipelines supply Europe and Turkey with natural gas.
⚡️#BREAKING The Russian MoD publish footage of them repelling the kamikaze boat attack on the Priazovie https://t.co/efLjGgQEVg pic.twitter.com/jLi1EISzGg
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 11, 2023
My Comment:
This was a fairly embarrassing failure by the Ukrainians. It doesn't look like these drone boats came even close to destroying the Priazovye. Indeed, a lightly armed intelligence ship was able to easily destroy these drones without taking any damage.
That isn't to say that there wasn't a threat here. If the Russians had been asleep at the wheel or under attack by other drones, or manned vehicles like a helicopter, they could have very easily lost their ship. Those drones were fairly large and made a big explosion when they were hit by the ship's cannons.
But the attack failed, probably because the element of surprise was lost. Every article I have seen has made a big deal out of the fact that an American RQ-4 Global Hawk drone was in the area but I doubt it was the only one. My guess is that Russia had their own drone coverage and knew this attack was coming as it was launched. That probably allowed the crew to prepare and meant that they were able to destroy the drones.
To be fair, it probably was important that we had one of our drones during this attack. My guess is that they were guiding these drones into their attacks. That probably crosses the line from simply supporting the Ukrainians to actually fighting in the war...
The Ukraine war is probably one of the first real drone wars. Indeed, both sides have used thousands of drones and it's clear that it's a huge deal. However, I don't know if these boat drones are really going to be effective. Like I said above, it's possible they would have worked, but you really need to have the element of surprise and that wasn't present here. Still, I shudder to think what could have happened if these drones were used in terror attacks against civilians. Given the proliferation of Ukrainian weapons across the world it's very possible...
As for the war itself, this seems like it was an attempt to try and get the bad news from the Ukrainian offensive by destroying a major Russian warship. The Priazovye is an important ship and was likely gathering intelligence and Ukrainian troop movements. Destroying it would have been a propaganda coup and would have been militarily valuable as well. Instead, it was just more embarrassing news for the Ukrainians.
Thursday, June 8, 2023
FBI document alleges that Joe Biden received $5 million from Ukrainian energy company.
Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Canadian wildfire smoke blankets northeast with smog.
Smoke from Canada's massive wildfires has blanketed the northeast of America with smog, raising fears about health. BBC. New York is passing out N95 masks, not for coronavirus, but to filter out the smog. Much of the smoke is coming from the Canadian province of Quebec, where the majority of fires are. The fire season is already the worst the province has seen. Millions of Americans are now under air quality warnings and the smog is creating eerie scenes throughout the northwest. The air is a threat to people with respiratory problems. Canada had a very warm and dry spring which is driving the wildfires.
My Comment:
The Northeast is now dealing with the same problem the Upper Midwest has had to deal with for awhile now. I don't think it was quite this bad in Northeast Wisconsin last week, but it was still pretty bad. We were under the same kind of air quality alert that much of the northeast is dealing with right now.
I do sympathize with them. Even though I stayed mostly inside during the air quality alert I had several coughing fits because of the bad air. It didn't help that this is pollen season as well, so it was not a good time. The air quality has since improved here, probably because the winds blew all this crap to the east.
Not helping things is how dry this spring/early summer has been so dry. Not only would a big rainstorm help put out the fires in Canada, it could take a lot of the smoke out of the air. Locally we are supposed to have storms this weekend, but I don't know if that will help out Canada or the northeast.
I actually do think that masks would help in this case. Smoke particles are a lot larger than virus particles and even a cloth mask should be able to catch many of them. A N95 mask would do even better. That's what these masks were made for and I would consider wearing one myself if I had to go outside.
I am betting at least some of these fires were set deliberately. Most were probably caused by natural causes like lightning or accidentally caused by people. But I would not be surprised if some of this was arson. The media is downplaying the possibility but it's very likely that at least some of the fires were deliberately set.
Tuesday, June 6, 2023
Iran has reopened their embassy in Saudi Arabia.
Iran has reopened their embassy in Saudi Arabia in a major sign of warming relations between the two former rivals. BBC. The move comes three months after both countries signed a deal that was brokered by China. The Saudis plan to reopen their embassy in Iran soon as well. Iran and Saudi Arabia were major regional rivals and were locked in proxy wars across the Middle East, including Syria and Yemen. Iran's deputy Prime Minster said that the two countries were "entering a new era".
My Comment:
This story is largely being ignored but it is in actuality a huge deal and major sign of the waning influence America has in the region. This would have been unthinkable even a few months ago but then China swooped in and brokered this deal.
Keep in mind that the proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia was one of the worst conflicts in the world. It was mostly concentrated in Yemen and it was a conflict that had the real possibility of spiraling out into a major conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Indeed, Iran's Houthi rebel proxies were regularly launching ballistic missiles and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia proper.
Now? There is a real hope of the war in Yemen ending. It was always a proxy war so it shouldn't be hard for the Saudi and Iranian led factions to come to some kind of deal. Neither side has any reason to keep the war going now that they have normalized relations. Given how horrible that conflict has been it's a real accomplishment for both sides to end it.
There are of course two huge losers because of this. Israel is probably the biggest one. Under Trump they were able to normalize relations throughout the Arab world but all of that is in jepordy now. The Gulf States mostly normalized relations because they needed allies against Iran. With that being largely irrelevant now, Israel has little power and could lose their new relationships. Their hopes of toppling the Iranian regime are pretty much gone.
Speaking of people hoping to topple the Iranian regime, the neocons in the US government, including Biden himself, are going to be very disappointed again. Relations with Saudi Arabia are at rock bottom thanks to Biden insanely deciding that a long alliance with a critical military and economic partner was not anywhere near as important as the life of a stupid Washington Post "journalist" Jamal Khashoggi. Having the Saudis being so upset over Biden and his administration that they ran into the arms of an American enemy is quite a feather in Biden's bonnet...