Ukraine President admits offensive is "slower than desired", Russian president observes "lull" in fighting.

 

An Ukrainian BMP-1 on the front line. Reuters.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has admitted that the country's summer offensive is moving "slower than desired" while Russian President Putin says he has observed a "lull" in fighting. Reuters. Zelenskyy has claimed that attacks in the south have taken 16 villages while defenses are holding in the Northeast, where it is rumored Russia has launched a counteroffensive of their own. However, Ukraine's offensive has fallen well short of their goals, with Ukrainian troops not even reaching Russia's first line of defense. Zelenskyy has blamed heavy minefields as a major reason why the offensive has been slow. 

My Comment:

That's about as big as a confirmation we are going to get from western media that the Ukrainian offensive has been a failure. Zelenskyy himself says the offensive is moving slower then they wanted and that's a huge admission of failure. 

Indeed, the Reuters report has again stated that Ukraine never even made it to Russia's 1st defensive line. Since Russia has three of them between Ukraine and their goal, the so called land bridge to Crimea, that's a fairly huge admission that the offensive hasn't even come close to accomplishing their goals.

There was no mention of how many casualties Ukraine has suffered but they have been severe. Indeed, many of Ukraine's newest vehicles, including Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Leopard Tanks have been destroyed, damaged or captured. The number of dead and wounded is harder to tell and to be fair it seems like the newer western weapons are allowing some of the troops in them to walk away. But I can't imagine it is going well. 

Keep in mind this comes after a major defeat for the Ukrainians in Bakhmut. Russia was able to take the city and destroy huge numbers of Ukrainian troops, many of them the best remaining in the country. Ukraine tried to counterattack there as well, but that appears to have failed, with fighting dying down to nothing. 

So why did the offensive fail so far? Zelenskyy is right about one thing and it's that mines were a huge problem for the Ukrainians. Especially since Ukraine's mine clearing Leopard tanks were destroyed fairly quickly into the offensive. That lead to several embarrassing defeats where Ukrainian armor had no choice but to try and charge through minefields with predictable results.  

But I think it was Russia's massive advantage in artillery and air power that hurt the Ukrainians the most. Supposedly Russia had a 10-1 advantage in artillery before the offensive and that might be even better now as attrition and lack of supplies reduce Ukraine's artillery units. Artillery is the queen of the battlefield and is an effective counter to both infantry assaults and armor. 

Air power has been a big factor in this battle as well, after being mostly irrelevant for both sides due to excellent air defenses. But Russia has slowly destroyed and expended Ukraine's air defenses, allowing them to use drones and helicopters, most notably the KA-52 Alligators, to blunt Ukraine's offensive. 

What happens next? If Ukraine was smart they would pull back their remaining troops and hide behind their defensive lines. They can't have a chance at actually accomplishing their goal of cutting off Crimea so going on the defensive would force Russia to expend their troops and equipment, starting with their offensive in the Northeast.

But Ukraine is not smart and I am expecting them to relaunch this offensive in a few days. Supposedly they got a new delivery of Challenger tanks from the UK to replace the Leopards they lost. I don't expect them to do any better this time around. Indeed, they are playing right into Russia's hands who have a main goal of destroying the Ukrainian army...