Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin during happier times. Russian government photo.
Unless you have been living under a rock you probably heard of the shocking coup attempt in Russia and the even more shocking resolution to the coup attempt. If you somehow missed it, the head of Russia's premier mercenary companies and the conquerors of Bakhmut, the Wagner Group, launched a coup. Yevgeny Prigozin led the coup and said he was going to go to Moscow and oust Putin's Defense Minister and Chief of the General staff. The coup failed, Wagner got integrated into the Russian military and Prigozhin is off to Belarus.
When the news broke on Friday, I decided I was going to go fishing instead and since I worked overtime this weekend I haven't had a chance to cover the story until now. This is probably for the best because a lot of people got burned by this story, especially on the pro-Ukraine side. A lot of people thought that Wagner was going to succeed and that Putin's days would be numbers and somehow peace would break out in Ukraine and Russia would sign on to the Western program.
Obviously none of that happened and I don't think Prigozhin ever had any kind of chance of removing Putin. Indeed, that wasn't his goal, he wanted to get rid of Putin's minsters, not him. From what I understand the Wagner rebellion had almost zero support, even among Wagner fighters.
Why not? Much of it is due to Yevgeny Prigozhin himself. His behavior was becoming more and more erratic and much of his criticism of Putin and his government was unhinged. Indeed, he accused Putin's minsters of misleading him about the war, which was an extraordinary claim without much evidence. Either way, Prigozin was too busy trying to make a name for himself than doing his actual job, which was fighting the Ukrainians.
The other reason is that most people don't want a new government in Russia. Putin was still very popular even before the war and is even more popular now. Most Russians believe that the war in Ukraine is an existential threat, and they aren't wrong. They aren't going to want to change leaders unless there is a valid reason to do so. And as far as the Russians are concerned there isn't one.
Of course there are many people who say this whole thing is maskirovka, aka Russian military deception. That would make sense given that I think at least some of Prigozhin's comments were that in the past. I remember him whining about not having enough artillery shells in Bakhmut and shortly after Russia launched one of their biggest artillery strikes in the war. Supposedly Wagner was redeployed to threaten Kiev near the northern border with Russia. The question then becomes what on earth the maskirovka was supposed to accomplish?
One possible reason is that this was an attempt to root out any disloyal people. This has happened before. The coup in Turkey certainly ended this way. It's very possible that Russia is at this very moment trying to find the people that wanted to support this coup and will be imprisoning and eliminating them...
The other theory is that this was a NATO inspired coup that failed. Under this theory Prigozhin was offered a bribe and was going to be paid billions to overthrow Putin. The theory is certainly possible, NATO has done some incredibly stupid things during this war already. But if that was the case I can't imagine Prigozhin being allowed to live.
My guess? I think Prigozhin realized that the war was nearing an end. Ukraine's offensive failed and Wagner was now on the backburner. He blamed Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov for this and decided to launch his rebellion. Once he realized that even his own troops didn't support him he called it off thanks to Lukashenko in Belarus offering a way out. His days are probably numbered...
Regardless, I don't think this will be anything but a footnote. The NAFO trolls on Twitter and propagandists in governments are trying to show that this means Putin is weak but I don't see it that way. Prigozhin's coup failed largely because he didn't get any popular support. Like I said, the Russians know that it's basically Putin or bust at this point and if they don't win in Ukraine that's it. They didn't appreciate Prigozhin's attempt to start a civil war.
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