Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio. BBC/Getty.
Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has decided to run for Senate in Arizona, despite having recently been pardoned by the President. BBC. The 85 year old is running for Jeff Flake's Senate seat because Flake is retiring. Arpaio is a major supporter of Trump and would be a senate ally if he was elected. However, Arpaio is controversial to say the least, with his pardon being due to a conviction for refusing to release illegal immigrants. Arpaio also lost his Sheriff's post in 2016 in an election with a Democrat.
My Comment:
Ugh. This looks like it could be another Roy Moore situation. If anything Arpaio has even more baggage than Moore. Unlike Moore Arpaio has been in the news for quite some time and most of it has been negative coverage. To say that Arpaio is controversial is a major understatement. Moore is nothing comapred to Arpaio.
That isn't to say that he isn't popular. The people that like Arpaio love him for what he did with Maricopa counties jails. Instead of rehabilitation, Arpaio was all about retribution and seemed to focus on humiliating criminals by making them wear pink, for example. I am not a fan of that myself but others do feel that criminals do get off easy and more harsh measures are needed. Arpaio will run as a law and order candidate which always has some appeal.
His take no prisoners attitude on illegal immigration will be popular as well. Arpaio was charged because he cracked down on illegals even if they hadn't committed state crimes. That action was popular and made him a hero for those of us on the right. Anti-immigration people are utterly disgusted when people attempt to go easy on illegal immigrants. Getting Arpaio into the Senate would likely result in a stronger, America First, border and immigration policy, which would be welcomed.
Still, the attack ads on Arpaio write themselves. He is hugely controversial and represents everything that the left hates. If he is the candidate, I expect that Democrats will be hugely motivated to stop him. They will pull out all the stops if they can find a credible candidate.
And I am not sure that the GOP voter in Arizona are going to back Arpaio. Though both of Arizona's senators are Republicans, they are closer to RINO's. Both John McCain and Jeff Flake are on the left side of the party. John McCain managed to fend off a primary challenger in Dr. Kelly Ward who was a lot closer to Trump but she failed.
On the other hand, Jeff Flake is retiring because his political career is over. His approval ratings are in the toilet and the general consensus is that if he had run in 2018 he would have lost in the primaries anyways, let alone the general election. John McCain too may be in trouble. Arizona elected him to bring down Obamacare and they betrayed him. Perhaps his betrayal will put Arizona in an anti-establishment mood.
Still, I fear that Arpaio is un-electable. And I think it would be a mistake to vote for him in the primary. There are more respectable candidate in the Arizona, with Dr. Kelly Ward having similar politics. I just don't understand why you would want him there when you could get Kelly Ward who doesn't have the baggage.
I also have to point out that Joe Arpaio is super old. He's 85 right now and will be 86 by the time he's in office. If he makes it through one term he will be 92. He seems to be pretty healthy for an 85 year old but there is a good chance that he doesn't make it through his first term and then they have to have yet another special election, one that could go either way. Even if you love Joe Arpaio, you have to admit he's really old.
I kind of feel that the GOP risks shooting themselves in the foot. Arizona, like Alabama before, is supposed to be a safe red state. Sending someone like Joe Arpaio up could turn it blue. In an election where there are more Democrats up for election than Republicans, it makes little sense to reduce how much you could win.
The GOP will likely lose in Nevada, but they have a lot of chances to knock off Democrat senators in red states and could potentially increase their lead in the Senate, or at least keep it at status quo ante. But if we end up losing Arizona, along with Nevada and Alabama, those senate seats are going to be hard to make up. It would take a total sweep of the red states to make it up...
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