Senator Bernie Sanders. Politico/Getty.
Bernie Sanders has gathered a team to discuss running for president in 2020. Politico. His advisers are reportedly telling him that if he runs he would be one of the front runners for 2020. Sanders hasn't made a descion either way but considers beating Donald Trump to be a priority. The field in 2020 is likely to be much more open than the 2016 race where only Sanders and Hillary Clinton were serious candidates, with Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chaffe and Jim Webb being afterthoughts. Sanders is 76 and would be 78 when running in 2020.
My Comment:
Here we go again. I will say this for Bernie Sanders. I don't like the man or his beliefs but at least he was and is better than Hillary Clinton. That's damning by faint praise, I would have voted for almost anyone over her, but it is something. On the other hand Sanders is one of the few people that was beaten by Hillary Clinton, so what does that say?
Of course Sanders lost what was a race rigged against him. Hillary Clinton, the DNC and the media all cooperated against him to ensure that Clinton was the candidate, not him. Unfortunately, Sanders just gave up and did not do the right thing when it came to Clinton. Instead of fighting him and the DNC that rigged the race against him, he laid down and died and endorsed Clinton for the Presidency. That act of cowardice cost him a few supporters, many of which went for Trump or voted 3rd party.
That being said, at least Sanders stands for something. While the Democratic Party has no message other than "anyone we disagree with is Russian and/or racist" Sanders has a populist economic message. Instead of social justice, Sanders stands for economic justice. If he can keep on message and focus on the real and perceived economic injustices instead of just being anti-Trump and avoiding the pitfalls of the social justice warriors, he could be a threat. It's a sad state of affairs where Sanders' far left economic populism could bring the party to the center.
Sanders also has a lot less baggage than Hillary Clinton had, but it's not true to say that he is scandal free. The man himself is relatively clean, but his wife, Jane Sanders, is under an FBI investigation for fraud. That case is likely to end in a conviction and would certainly make Sanders look bad. Compared to the massive scandals that rocked the Hillary Clinton campaign and the DNC, and those still yet to be fully revealed, it looks tame in comparison, but he's not a clean candidate.
Sanders' biggest advantage is the weak field in 2020. Other than Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton herself, there aren't any big names running, and even those three are anything but a sure thing. Most of the other people considering it are no-names that have little chance of winning. And the big three, Biden, Warren and Clinton might not decide to run, with their various scandals likely bogging them down.
And unlike the last time, I am guessing that the field will not be as united. Other than Sanders, there were no serious competitors against Clinton so the entire Democratic coalition outside of the economic populists united under her. With Clinton either not running or so tainted that even people that like her understand she doesn't have a chance to win, it's very likely that the primaries will separate into different factions. Other than Elizabeth Warren, Sanders isn't likely to lose too many votes from the economic justice faction, but the various racial, gender and ethnic factions will likely split. That gives Sanders a huge advantage.
That being said, Sanders would have a major disadvantage with those groups during the general election. The feminists will be furious that another old white male is running, the various ethnic groups won't turn out for Sanders, especially since Trump is making inroads with Blacks and Hispanics, and the Clinton neo-liberals will be pissed that an outsider is taking over the party. None of that bodes well for Sanders.
And that's ignoring Trump's advantages. If you listen to the news media you wouldn't know those exist but the fact of the matter is that Trump is tough to beat in 2020. Historically incumbent presidents almost always win. The only one that has lost in recent history was George Bush Sr., who faced a credible third party challenger and broke a major campaign promise. Neither of those things are true for Trump. Trump's supporters are generally happy with him and think he is keeping most of his promises.
Trump also should not be underestimated. He has more support than the opinion polls suggest, which should be obvious to anyone that paid even the least bit of attention in 2016. And even though many people don't like the man himself, his policies are fairly popular. People vote on policy, not character. He also has the effects of the tax law that kicks in next month and will give most people in America a raise and the utterly foolish government shutdown that Sanders supported.
Trump is also uniquely suited to tackle Bernie Sanders. Trump's in your face debate style is a good counter to the weak backbone of Sanders. Sanders couldn't even handle Clinton, do you really think he will be able to out debate Trump? And Sanders' message of economic populism isn't that different than Trumps. In order to differentiate himself he may have to go in the direction of social justice, which did not help Hillary Clinton win.
Still, all of this is in the future, and the future for the Democrats is very unclear. With so many scandals bubbling under the surface for the party, there is no guarantee that the party will even exist in 2020. Those scandals, such as the FISA memo, the Clinton e-mail scandal and various other misdeeds by the Obama administration are coming out and when they do it will completely change the political landscape. That new landscape may help Sanders in the end as the establishment lays in ruins, but with things so up in the air it's hard to say how things will play out...
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