ISIS declares war on Hamas.

Screencap from an Sinai Province. Washington Post/SITE.

ISIS has declared war on Hamas and has called for attacks in Gaza. Washington Post. ISIS's Egyptian affiliate, the Sinai Province released a 22 minute video in which they executed a man they called a collaborator. ISIS said the declaration was due to Hamas cracking down on Islamist groups in Gaza and for not preventing President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Though Hamas is considered a terror group, they have been trying to improve relations with the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. It is unclear if ISIS has the power to strike in Gaza but they could stage an attack on Israel which may be blamed on Hamas. 

My Comment:

Always nice to see two terrorist groups fighting each other. Though Hamas isn't anywhere near as bad as ISIS, they are still a terrorist group responsible for multiple bombings and attacks. They are not good people and I don't feel bad for them if they get attacked. It couldn't happen to more deserving people. Still, given how horrible ISIS is, I doubt they will restrict their attacks to Hamas itself and not the civilians living in Gaza.

I wonder how real this threat is. ISIS as a whole has largely been defeated in Iraq and Syria and have had major reductions in territory and power in Libya and Afghanistan. That being said the one place they are strong is Egypt. The Sinai Province is the most dangerous and powerful ISIS affiliate left and they are very good at conducting terror attacks. In Egypt alone they have killed hundreds of people and they were the ones to take down that Russian airliner. They are ISIS's most capable terrorist left and we should not dismiss this threat. 

Still, ISIS would have to overcome quite a few obstacles to conduct an attack against Gaza. First they have to deal with Egyptian security forces operating in the area. The Egyptians haven't been successful in destroying ISIS in the region but they would likely detect and destroy a large attack. Egypt would likely step up their efforts against ISIS if they conduct attacks on Gaza. 

And Gaza itself is not without defense. They are building up their border defenses and they have security forces of their own. They might not be able to defend against small terror attacks but they would have a better time against a large assault. I don't think they could take offensive action against ISIS but they certainly are not helpless. 

Most formidable are the Israelis. The Washington Post report made it sound that if ISIS were to attack Israel they would attack Hamas, but I am not so sure. They may officially have that as a policy but I doubt they would actually do it. Indeed, they might respond to an attack in or from Gaza by ISIS as a good reason to attack their bases in Sinai. Plus they have their Iron Dome system and strong border control that would make even a false flag attack by ISIS extremely difficult. 

I do have to say that this probably isn't a great move by ISIS. They have so many enemies already they probably shouldn't attack other terrorist groups. They probably would never have been friendly with Hamas but they didn't need to make them an active enemy. 

I don't really buy ISIS's blame of President Trump for attacking Hamas. ISIS probably isn't happy with Trump's Jerusalem declaration, that isn't the reason for this declaration. The crackdown by Hamas on ISIS fighters is the biggest reason. Trump's declaration is just a convenient excuse. ISIS hates Israel anyways and want them to be destroyed so I don't see why they could care what America says on the manor.    

It has been awhile since ISIS has released an execution video. ISIS once had a very impressive and horrifying propaganda wing, but as ISIS was beaten back in Iraq and Syria, their propaganda efforts have been reduced. It just goes to show how little the defeats of the past year or so haven't affected the Sinai branch of ISIS. They still have capabilities that core ISIS has lost...