North Korea claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb. AFP.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signs the order authorizing the test. AFP/Yonhap.

North Korea claims to have successfully tested a new hydrogen nuclear bomb. AFP. Other countries condemned the test, with South Korea, the United States and even North Korea's only real ally, China, criticizing the country. If the test is legitimately of a hydrogen bomb, that would be a dangerous development because hydrogen based bombs are much more powerful then the nuclear devices North Korea has tested before. Experts scoffed at the claim due to the very low estimated yield of the device. The bomb is thought to be between six and nine kilotons, while the first US hydrogen bomb measured at 10 megatons. If the bomb was an attempt at a hydrogen explosion, then it failed, though it still qualified as a nuclear explosion. Even if the device was a H-bomb, North Korea still lacks an effective delivery vehicle for the weapon and the expertise to make it small enough to deploy. With another nuclear test, it is expected that North Korea will receive a fresh round of international sanctions, with China's response to the test currently unknown. 

My Comment:

I'm generally not too concerned when North Korea tests one of their nukes. After all, this has happened before and in all likelihood it will happen again. No war happened the past three times North Korea has pulled this stunt and I don't see it happening now. Though nuclear arms could be used in unconventional ways, the fact of the matter is that North Korea does not have a delivery system for its nukes. Without an effective missile system, or even a long range bomber, North Korea's nuclear ambitions are kind of a joke. Upgrading to hydrogen bombs, assuming that's what this even is, is not really going to make them anymore dangerous. Only an effective delivery system will do that. 

The larger concern is proliferation. Though North Korea is unlikely to use its nukes, it is cash starved and may be looking for a buyer. Either for the nukes themselves or the expertise in creating them. There are a lot of other nations that are interested in developing nuclear weapons, most of them in the Middle East, and I could see one of them trying to make a deal with North Korea. ISIS could want to buy a nuke as well, but even North Korea would understand that would be a terrible idea. If anything bad does happen as a result of this test, it will be nuclear technology spreading to other states. 

I'm not expecting any severe consequences for this latest test. Nobody fears the North Korean army and everyone in the region has a vested interest in keeping the Kim Jong Un regime standing. South Korea does not want to pick up the pieces if North Korea were to fall, China doesn't want the refugees and the United States does not want to be drawn into another war. There will be sanctions of course, but those sanctions won't be so severe that the regime will collapse. In short, it will be business as usual. North Korea will still stand, with Kim Jong Un at the helm. 

Still, testing a nuke, on the surface, seems like a very stupid idea for the North Koreans. After all, they have succeeded in angering all of their neighbors and will likely suffer under the new sanctions. So why do it? Part of it is because of the prestige they would get for detonating an H-bomb. They won't get that internationally because the device looks like it failed, but they will still gain internal prestige. North Korea's entire government is reliant on the prestige of the Kim family, so it almost makes sense for them to do this for that reason alone. There have been questions about Kim Jong Un's hold on the country lately, and this test could boost his power and the stability of his regime. 

Another possible reason is the fact that North Korea had a massive drought last summer. Last July I posted about the drought and the possible consequences but since then I have heard almost nothing. It is very possible that North Korea is having problems feeding their people. In the past when North Korea has been having problems feeding their people, they have turned to saber rattling, threats, and in some rare cases, attacks on South Korea in order to bring people back to the negotiation table. I haven't heard any proof of famine in North Korea, but given the time of year, perhaps their supplies are running out during the winter months. 

Though I have no proof of it, my theory is that North Korea is undergoing some kind of internal situation involving food, and they need help. The only way North Korea knows how to get help is by making threats of some kind. Setting off a nuke is one hell of a threat, so I am guessing they have the worlds attention. If the pattern holds, they will come to the negotiation table, make some concessions and then ask for what they really want, which is food aid. And in all honesty they will probably get it. 

I really don't see this situation getting out of hand and I do think that North Korea will remain in its current status quo for most of its neighbors. It may have some new sanctions and China may actually level some pressure onto the regime, but for the most part I think North Korea will continue to get away with what it is doing. And it is still years away from being an actual nuclear threat...