New Kurdish/Rebel offensive launched in Hasaka, Syria. Reuters.

Syrians fleeing the fighting in Hasaka earlier this year. Reuters.

A new alliance between the Kurds, and Syrian rebels called the Democratic Forces of Syria has launched a new offensive near the northern city of Hasaka. Reuters. The announced offensive comes one day after the United States has announced that special forces would be deployed to Syria to help train the rebels and the Kurds. Throughout the war the Kurdish YPG has been our most reliable ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria. The objective of the new group is to drive ISIS out of the city of Hasaka, which is jointly held by Kurds, the Syrian regime and ISIS. Hasaka is a critical city for ISIS as holding it allows them to access the  border region with Iraq. The Kurds, along with their Sunni Arab rebel allies are expecting weapon drops from the United States. 

My Comment:

The elephant in the room is the fact that the Syrian regime has major forces still deployed in Hasaka (also spelled Hasakah). Indeed, Hasaka is their second remaining stronghold in the eastern part of Syria, along with Deir Ez Zor (which is spelled too many ways to count!). The Kurds are de-facto allies with the Syrian regime so I'm struggling to understand what is going on here. The way I see it there are a couple of options:

1. The new group is going to attack the regime as well. This would completely destroy relations between the Kurds and the regime and would be a major escalation in the war for the United States. The presence of the Arab rebel groups suggests this is possible. After all they want Assad out of power. But my guess is that this is not going to happen.

2. The more likely option is that the Kurds and regime will either work together in this offensive or the regime will just get out of the way. That makes the situation very awkward, not only for the United States, but for the rebels as well. Both groups have a stated goal of removing Assad but just think about what they are doing here. Hasaka has been under pressure for most of the year and by attacking ISIS the rebels and the United States are essentially helping the regime. At best in an indirect fashion by drawing forces away from regime positions and reducing the number of ISIS troops in the area. But if the Kurds end up working directly with the regime then we are helping the regime as well.

I am guessing that the second option is much more likely. At this point, with Russia helping the regime and the Kurds being essentially allies to the them, the U.S. military would not risk attacking the regime. The Kurds have no reason to do so either and the only group that I can think of that might risk it is the rebel groups. I think they know that if they do, however, that they risk losing U.S. support and drawing the ire and airstrikes of the Russian military. Crazier things have happened but I think it is a long shot. 

So will this new offensive actually turn the tide in Hasaka? I'm not sure. For a time earlier this year, it looked like Hasaka would be the next city to fall from ISIS. They were suicide bombing regime positions and there was heavy fighting throughout city. The Kurds and the Syrians managed to hold on to the city though, and since then I have heard little. This could break the stalemate. Presumably, the new weapons and training coming down the pipeline will help the forces in the area push ISIS back. There is also the possibility off  heavy U.S. airstrikes helping the offensive out if it gets bogged down. Still, given how intractable ISIS has been, I would not be surprised if this offensive either takes forever to accomplish its goals, or fails completely. 

In a semi-perfect world, Russia and the U.S. would work together to liberate Hasaka from ISIS. I say semi-perfect because in a perfect world ISIS wouldn't exist. You would think that Russia and the United States could put aside their differences and work together since they have a common goal. Both countries want ISIS out of Hasaka. Both countries have allies on the ground that they are supporting. And both countries may send airstrikes in the area. But neither side will talk with each other and coordinate. Which means both countries attacks will be less effective then they would be if they were working together. 

I know, I know, Assad is a monster and we shouldn't be helping him. That's the argument at least. But the facts on the ground mean that it doesn't make sense to have that view anymore. ISIS and al-Nusra are the bigger threats now. Sure, Assad is partially responsible for that, and yes, it would be nice if he would face justice. But I don't think we win the war against ISIS without him surviving the war. At this point we have to face reality. These new offensives and deployments may help defeat ISIS in the end, but there is no way that the regime collapses now unless everything goes way wrong. We aren't going to war with Russia over Syria and we just have to accept that our foreign policy in Syria failed. Let's just focus on destroying ISIS and worry about everything else after.