New anti-ISIS offensive in Iraq is having some success. AFP

Iraqi forces fire a rocket near Baiji. Yahoo/AFP

A new offensive in Iraq, aimed at taking back territory from ISIS is having some success. AFP. Iraqi forces are clearing out the city of Baiji and advancing towards Ramadi and Hawija. The offensive at Baiji was launched last week and was aimed at taking back both the city itself and the major oil refinery located there. Iraqi troops, backed up by the Iranian led popular mobilization force, have reconquered most of the city, with only a few pockets of resistance remaining. The operation has now cut off the supply lines to the ISIS held city of Hawija, which is now being surrounded by Iraqi forces. The Kurds are also having some luck in the north, while Ramadi is slowly getting surrounded as well. Less then 1000 fighters still hold Ramadi. 

My Comment:

You can really tell that the Iraq War has really taken back seat to the war in Syria. This is a rather large victory for the Iraqis but I hadn't heard anything about it until now. The offensive happened last week and Baiji was largely taken over a couple of days ago. But I didn't hear anything about it in the media. Just goes to show when the Russians decide to do something militarily, everything else falls by the wayside. To be fair, the Russians joining the war in Syria was a game changer, but you would think the efforts in Iraq against ISIS would make the news as well. 

If the Iraqis manage to hold onto this victory, it will be a huge blow to ISIS. Baiji has been a major battlefield for them since last year and they were never able to fully control the area. They spent many lives and tons of supplies and have little to show for it. And ISIS needed to win in Baiji. They need the refinery their for their economy. They make a decent amount of their money by selling oil, and not being able to capture this refinery means that they are losing millions of dollars. 

It's still too early to say that the battle for Baiji is over though. ISIS has been driven away from there before, but they have always come back. And ISIS has a history of pulling shocking victories out of nowhere. That being said, even if this a temporary victory, it's still a victory, and the Iraqis and their Iranian allies should be happy right now. 

I haven't mentioned one of the major factors why the Iraqis were able to beat back ISIS. Iraq's military has been essentially destroyed so much of the fighting isn't being done by them. Instead, Shiite militias, trained and led by the Iranians, are doing the bulk of the fighting. Much like in Syria, Iran is providing troops, weapons and training. Obviously the Shiite Iranians are not happy about a group of Sunni fundamentalists running around and destroying Shiites. Their role in the anti-ISIS alliance is critical, but western sources tend to downplay their role, especially since the Russians joined the war... 

As for ISIS, it's been a long time since they have had a major success. Since they have captured Palmyra and Ramadi, they haven't done a whole lot. Some of that is due to the fact that war tends to calm down in the region during summer. It is just to hot to fight in Iraq and Syria during the summer. That being said though, it should be concerning to ISIS that they haven't had much of a victory in awhile. The only thing I can think of as a success for ISIS is the fact that they are closing quickly on Aleppo in Syria, and that may have more to do with the Russian air campaign against al-Nusra and their rebel allies then anything that ISIS is doing. 

I think Russia's campaign in Syria is having an effect on ISIS. Their morale must have taken a hit and they have lost troops and weapons to the airstrikes. Not nearly as much as the rebels have, but it's still a blow. Add in the US led air campaign and the Iranians backing up the Iraqis and it may explain why ISIS seems to be on the defensive instead of the offensive. They are getting beat up right now and the war against ISIS may have reached its turning point. Turns out declaring war on the entire world isn't always a good idea. 

Still, it would be foolish to underestimate ISIS. Their whole history is about doing the impossible. They never should have been able to take Mosul or Ramadi, but they did it. They were never supposed to survive our air campaign against them but they have. And to say now that they are getting beaten just because they appear to have lost one battle would be tempting fate.