Iraqi army declares victory against ISIS in Ramadi. Reuters.

An Iraqi soldier raises the flag in Ramadi. Reuters. 

The Iraqi army had declared victory in Ramadi after they took the city center from ISIS. Reuters. Ramadi was taken by ISIS in May after Iraqi troops fled the city. Iraq had been fighting to take back the city ever since and had surrounded the city for weeks before finally pushing into the city itself. The Iraqis took the final major ISIS stronghold in the city, the central administration complex, on Sunday. Pockets of ISIS fighters are still probably in the city. Much of the city was destroyed in the battle and the Iraqis will have their work cut out for them as rebuilding begins. It is unclear how many casualties the battle caused. The Iraqi government claims that most of the civilians were able to escape the battle. The battle marks the first victory for the Iraqi army since the war began. Though they participated in the liberation of Tikrit, that was mostly a Shia militia victory. Those Shia militias were held back in Ramadi due to the atrocities they committed in Tikrit. With Ramadi back in Iraqi hands, the government now sets their sights on Mosul, which is the de-facto capital for ISIS in Iraq. 

My Comment:

This deceleration of victory is possibly premature. Yes they were able to take the city center back and ISIS has been reduced to isolated pockets of resistance. But they are still in the city and I doubt the fighting is over. There may be a few more days or even weeks of fighting as ISIS is slowly pushed out of the city. And even if ISIS is pushed out, they will likely still have an operational presence in the city. Though ISIS will no longer hold territory in Ramadi, they may still be able to launch terror attacks targeting the Iraqi military and civilians. I don't think there is any chance that ISIS will be able to hold out in Ramadi for any extended amount of time, but there are still forces there and as long as that is true, I think any declaration of victory is premature. 

And it's not like ISIS has been pushed out of central Iraq. ISIS still holds the cities of Fallujah and Hit. With those two cities still in ISIS hands, they will be able to conduct raids and offensive operations throughout central Iraq. Taking Ramadi is a victory, but Iraq still has major problems in the region. Fallujah has been in ISIS hands for longer then Ramadi and there is no sign that the battle for that city is going to end anytime soon... 

I'm also worried that ISIS will be able to take another city after this battle. Remember, when Ramadi fell last May, it was right after Iraqi led forces took back the city of Tikrit. ISIS pulled their troops out of that city, after inflicting heavy casualties, and then prepared for a new offensive. By pulling troops out of northern Iraq, they were able to conduct a major offensive in south central Iraq, which ultimately ended with them taking Ramadi. With Iraqi forces spread so thin, ISIS may be able to go on the offensive again. Sure, the incompetence of the troops guarding the city of Ramadi helped, but it was still a successful operation. If it happened before, there is always a chance it could happen again.

Still, ISIS's chances of victory are smaller now then they were when Ramadi fell. In Ramadi they had the advantage of the Shia militias being tied up in the north. ISIS may decide to attack, but with central Iraq being the place they are retreating from, they would have no choice but to attack the north. And there, the Iraqis should be able to deploy the Shiite militias, which are probably fresh since they didn't take part in the battle of Ramadi. The other option is to attack the Kurds, but their fighters have been exceptional lately and I don't see them as an easy target. I do think that ISIS will probably try to attack somewhere, but I doubt they will have the level of success they had in Ramadi. 

All that being said, this is a huge victory for Iraq and a major defeat for ISIS. This is the first major victory the Iraqis have had without much in the way of help. Sure, America definitely helped the Iraqis win the battle with airstrikes and logistical support, but when it came down to the actual fighting, it was the Iraqi's that stepped up and won the battle. They didn't have to rely on Iranian backed militias and they avoided the possible massacres those troops would have conducted in Ramadi. That should be a major morale boost for Iraqi troops and for Iraq in general. It shows that the Iraqi army isn't completely incompetent and is rebuilding after being largely destroyed in the first phases of the war against ISIS. 

For ISIS, this is a major defeat for them, in a season where they are facing a lot of setbacks. ISIS has been losing a lot of territory lately, in both Iraq and Syria and have even had to pull out of Damascus in Syria. Though those other battles hurt ISIS more then Ramadi ever did, Ramadi is going to get most of the headlines. That will probably hurt their morale and could even result in fewer recruits for the group. ISIS will also lose out on the tax base that Ramadi provided, and they have lost quite a few troops that were killed or captured in the battle. The fact that Iraq didn't deploy the Shia militias to the city also means that ISIS missed out on a recruitment opportunity as the atrocities those troops would have conducted would have been a propaganda victory for ISIS.

But let's not pretend that ISIS is on the verge of being defeated in Iraq. I already mentioned that they control Fallujah and Hit in central Iraq, but more importantly they still control Mosul. The Iraqi government says that Mosul is the next target but they have been saying that since the city fell last year.

 Mosul will be a much tougher battle then Ramadi will be. For one, the Iraqis will be much further away from their logistical bases which will make supplying their army a lot more difficult. ISIS will also have way more fighters in Mosul then they did in Ramadi. Remember, there were less then 500 ISIS fighters in Ramadi during the final stages of the battle. That will not be true in Mosul. And there is also the question of what to do with the civilians in Mosul. Most of the civilians in Ramadi were able to evacuate, but I doubt that will be true in Mosul And in that city, many of the civilians may actually support ISIS. In the end, if the battle of Mosul happens anytime soon, expect it to be a long bloody siege where many more people die on both sides when compared to the battle of Ramadi...