Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Russian cruise missile strikes support a new Syrian offensive. New York Times.

A Russian warship firing a cruise missile. New York Times/AFP/Getty.

Russia has sent a wave of cruise missile strikes as well as a new round of airstrikes in support of a new Syrian offensive. New York Times. 26 cruise missiles were fired from the Caspian Sea, some 900 miles away from Syria. Assad's forces have had a huge morale boost since Russia joined the war on their side, and for good reason. With the new help from Russia, Syrian forces have moved from a defensive role to an offensive one. Russia has focused most of its airstrikes on the rebel coalition group, Army of Conquest, which is led by the al-Nusra front and has many members from the Free Syrian Army. Russia does not consider the FSA members to be separate from the al-Nusra members. Most of the cruise missiles hit in the strongholds of the Army of Conquest including southern Idlib province and northern Hama province. Though Russia has targeted ISIS as well, it is clear at this point that their main targets are the Army of Conquest. The new offensive will consist of Syrian fighters, Hezbollah fighters and Iranian advisers, though no Russian ground troops are known to be committed. For their part, the Army of Conquest has tried to blunt the offensive by using anti-tank TOW missiles originally supplied by the United States. 


My Comment:
Russia is really taking their commitment to Syria seriously. That was some serious firepower they just unleashed on the enemies of the Syrian regime. In addition to the various cruise missile strikes, they also launched airstrikes and are supplying the Syrian Army with weapons. The Syrian Regime will be able to take advantage of these attacks.

I have to say that I am impressed that Russia was able to use cruise missiles this way. Not so much in terms of technology, I was aware they had this tech, but diplomatically. In order to launch these strikes their missiles had to fly over both Iran and Iraq. Russia must have been able to receive permission from both of those countries. Iran isn't surprising but what is surprising is that Iraq would go along with it. Obviously Iraq must have fallen under pressure to not allow this attack from the United States. The fact that they were able to stand up to the United States and say no means that we don't have as much influence as we should have.  

Come to think of it, the United States must have known about these strikes as well. If Russia had not informed us that they were sending a bunch of missiles over Iraq, then there could have been serious repercussions. After all we still have a small number of troops in Iraq and we have air operations in Iraq and Syria, and without an announcement there could have been fears that they were being launched at our troops. Since there was no response I am forced to conclude that our troops knew what was happening or they were completely asleep at the switch. 

Once again I have to say that I agree with Russia in terms of who they are targeting. If they are targeting the Army of Conquest then they are targeting terrorists. Al-Nusra is a major player in the army of conquest and they are an official al-Qaeda group. Anyone, whether they are FSA or not, who works with al-Nusra at any level should consider their lives forfeit. The fact that we are still supplying weapons and supplies to people that work with al-Nusra is a national shame. Russia should be commended for striking them, and we should be supporting the Russians here. The only secular groups left in Syria are the regime, the Kurds and the Southern Front rebel group. Those are the only people we should be supporting in Syria. Everyone else are Jihadists or are directly working with Jihadists.  

As for the offensive itself, I've heard this story before. Many times in the past couple of years, Syria has tried to go on the offensive and every time they have failed. Sure, Russian air and naval support will help and having all that firepower directed at their enemy will help their morale. But what they need is someone to give their troops a little backbone. Sure they have Hezbollah and some Iranian advisers, but what they really need is more soldiers. Soldiers who won't break when they face heavy weapons and suicide bombers. I don't think they have that right now and the Russians aren't likely to send their troops. 

I don't think they will succeed in destroying the Army of Conquest. But I also don't think that is their true objective. They want to secure the western coastal enclave that the regime has held onto for the entire war. That's where Russia's naval base is and that's where Assad's population of Alawites live. The Army of Conquest was threatening that area and if they had succeeded in taking it the war would have been over, for all intents and purposes. Though this missions has been declared an offensive, in my mind it is clearly a defensive operation. 

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