Thursday, October 29, 2015

My take on the 3rd Republican debate!

The best moment of the debate.

Well, the third debate is in the books and here's my reaction to it... finally. I needed a little time to digest what happened last night. It was pretty terrible. Before I go any further I have to say that the subject of this debate was the economy, which is pretty far from my area of expertise. I'm no expert on economic debates, so I can't tell you if Ben Carson's tax plan is better then Rand Paul's or Ted Cruz's. Indeed, I'm not sure if I care either way. Instead I will focus on how each candidate did in terms of performance and comment on any areas of policy I do know something about. If you are looking for how they candidates did on policy, you should probably look elsewhere. 

And I have to say the moderation of this debate was just terrible. The questions that were asked were just completely biased, needlessly snarky and just plain awful. Now I'm the last person to call for a fawning debate where the candidates only get softball questions. They need a curve ball now and then, just to keep them on their toes. What they don't need is to be hit by the pitch and have a bench clearing brawl. I am convinced that if Hillary Clinton had been a moderator she would have asked better questions. 

All of the questions followed one of two formats. The first and more common one was asking the candidate about some kind of controversy and then asking them if it disqualified them from being a candidate. A few of these questions were fair, such as the one attacking Ben Carson for being a snake oil salesman. But the vast majority of them were either non-issues, answered in past debates or could have been asked in a much less snarky and annoying way. As far as I am concerned almost all the questions were gotcha questions in the vein of the old "when are you going to stop beating your wife" trap. Even if you answer the question masterfully, you still look bad. 

The other format was just a blatant call for one candidate to attack the others. John Kasich rose to the bait early, but after that most of these calls to attack other candidates were ignored. Mike Huckabee completely turned it around and used it to criticize the media. These questions weren't nearly as numerous as the gotcha questions but they were also way too common.

All in all, CNBC did a terrible job with this debate. In addition to the bad questions, the moderators frequently lost control of the debate. Candidates pretty much ignored them and kept on talking even after their time was up, because they clearly didn't respect the moderators. And why would they? Between the debates, the commentary was painful and it seemed clear that they did not know what they were doing. I was also annoyed about all the commercials this debate had in comparison to the other debates. I guess CNBC needed to make up the money they lost when Trump and Carson forced them to have a shorter debate. 

Finally, let's get to my reactions to the candidates. I'm kind of angry that I had to spend all that time writing about how bad the format was. I think all the candidates did pretty good in hostile territory and too their credit they didn't rise to the bait and attack each other too much. Still, I think there are candidates that did a lot better then the others.

Donald Trump:
Compared to the other two debates, Trump had a much more limited role. I think that was largely due to him not being asked anywhere near the same number of questions that he was asked in the other ones. He also didn't get into nearly as many as fights as the other debates. The one major fight he got into, not counting all the fights with the moderators, he won hands down. John Kasich, prodded on by the moderators, attacked him and Ben Carson  on their tax plans. Trump fired back hard at Kasich, pointing out that he had been avoiding attacks on other candidates but once his polls started to slip he had to attack people to remain relevant. 

Trump's best moments though were in response to the moderators. He hit back hard whenever they asked him stupid questions, especially the one that happened at the very beginning of the campaign which accused him of having a "comic book" campaign. Trump rightly pointed out that was a terrible question and throughout the night he fought back hard against the questions. 

Other then that though it was a quite night for Trump. He didn't really make any major headlines but part of that is one of the questions he was asked had been asked and answered in the last debate. He already talked, at length, about his bankruptcies in Atlantic City in the past debate. I think that the answer he gave, that he just took advantage of the laws available to him like any other businessman, is a fair answer, and one that was given last debate. Asking it again showed bias by the moderators and did not help anyone understand the candidate better. 

Overall, I think the debate helps Trump. He didn't have any major gaffs, and scored big points with his attacks on the moderators. He didn't deal any killing blows to the other candidates but considering how bad the moderators were in this debate that helped him too. Showing unity with the other candidates was a great move by Trump, and all the rest of the candidates. 

Ben Carson:
Not a good performance from Carson. He didn't speak much and when he did he didn't really convince me of anything. And even though the issue about his endorsement for a supplement was quashed by the stupid way the moderators asked it, I think it's a real concern. For a famous surgeon, I don't have a whole lot of respect for a guy hawking a product that is probably worthless. If anyone should know better it is Ben Carson. Time will tell if this issue makes any impact, but my own opinion of him dropped a little, much like when Trump came out as anti-vaccine. It's not a deal breaker by any means but in my own pros and cons chart, this goes in the con column.

I do think that Carson did have one great moment of the night. He made the point that just because you don't like gay marriage, it doesn't mean you hate gay people. Given that Carson worked for Costco, which is fairly gay-friendly, means that his views are more complex then that. So many people on the left try to make this connection and it rarely gets challenged. I also loved that he immediately called out PC-Culture as well, which is another thing that needs to be challenged  much more then it currently is. 

Overall though, I don't think Carson did well here. I don't think he hurt his campaign too much, but he also didn't do anything much to help. Unlike the first two debates, I think Carson had a weak night.

Marco Rubio:
I think Rubio had the best night by far. He had great answers to his questions and, as always, he was articulate and intelligent. The man is a natural politician and is a joy to listen to, even when you disagree with him. He had one dumb moment where he repeated a joke that he made in an earlier debate, which would have been helped if he had just mentioned that he made the joke before, but other then that I think this was a pretty much flawless debate.

One of the best moments of the entire debate was his epic take down of his former mentor, Jeb Bush. Bush was hitting him hard over his sparse senate attendance and even went so far as suggesting that he should resign. I think that is a fair criticism, but it's a universal one for anyone on the campaign trail. Rubio pointed out that other major candidates, like John Kerry, Barack Obama and John McCain did the same thing. Rubio then completely turned it around on Bush by saying that he never complained when those guys did it and that he was only attacking him because his advisers told him that it would help. 

It was an amazing moment and one of the biggest turn around plays I have seen in any debate. What really sold it was the amount of emotion in Rubio's voice. You could tell that he actually felt saddened by the fact that his old mentor was attacking him. The old man was calling him out but it was clear that the old man was the one in the wrong. Instead of getting mad or firing back, he just felt sorry for Jeb Bush. 

Will the debate help Rubio? I think so. He may have killed Jeb Bush's campaign, which is great news for Rubio since he's Bush's greatest rival. His take down of him will live on throughout the campaign, along with his quip about the mainstream media being a Super PAC for Hillary Clinton. He sounded presidential and like a leader. I'd be surprised if he isn't the establishment candidate from now on, and has a decent chance of being the actual candidate.

Jeb Bush:
This was a terrible debate for Bush. I don't remember anything that happened with him other then the fact that Rubio completely destroyed him. That happened fairly early in the debate, and he never was able to recover from it. He just got wrecked.

This is very bad news for Bush. He desperately needed to make a case that his campaign was still viable, but I think he ended up showing just the opposite. At this point the people that like his policies probably like Rubio's as well. And they are going to support Rubio because he is a much better speaker, and debater. I don't know if this was the killing blow for Bush, but it's damn close. He's still got millions of dollars to throw around but at this point I think it's time to just hang it up after last night. 

Ted Cruz:
If Rubio isn't the winner of this debate, Ted Cruz is. His denouncement of the media and the CNBC moderators is going to go down in legend as one of the best responses in debate history. He gave voice to a common criticism those of use on the right commonly have. The media is against us. They unfairly attack almost everyone on the right. And nobody trusts the media anymore. They lie about everything and they attack anyone who disagrees with them. And it is getting more and more blatant. The questions at this debate were more attacks then actual questions and even the ones that were appropriate were asked in snarky, condescending ways.  

Ted Cruz knows the media is against him and against all Republicans and his moment last night really set the tone for the debate. After he pounded the media he made it clear to the other candidates that they were being set up and that they should unite with each other instead of playing into CNBC's plans. 

I still don't like Ted Cruz's policies all that much and I think there are much better candidates in the Republican field. But if he keeps hitting the media like he did in this debate he's got a decent chance of lasting until the convention. I don't think he will win the candidacy, but he's making a case for it now. 

Carly Fiorina:
Not much to say about Fiorina. She didn't really have an impact on me like she did during the last debate. Probably because she was so passionate in her opposition of abortion. This debate is the economy and it's hard to show the amount of emotion about fiscal policy. She did clearly articulate what she believed though, especially when it comes to government getting involved in our lives. 

Still, other then that, she didn't have any good moments. Which is shocking to me because she utterly dominated the talk time. She had a lot to say, but apparently none of it was interesting or memorable for me. She might not get that bump like she did last time, which is not what I was expecting. 

Mike Huckabee:
Huckabee had two great moments at the debate. He was otherwise fairly silent. The first was his complete rejection  of the moderators offer to rip into Donald Trump. Instead of attacking him, he called him a great guy and pointed out that he shouldn't waste his limited time attacking him when he could be selling his ideas. I think that showed a lot of class and made him look pretty respectable.

I also loved that Huckabee is proposing attacking deadly diseases like cancer and heart disease. Everyone else is trying to save medicare and health care in general with dumb things like fuzzy math and repealing Obamacare. Huckabee says screw that, let's just improve people's health. We would save money if we could just cure these damn diseases. I mean what would you rather have? EU style socialist medicine where you still get cancer and die anyways, or US style healthcare where you get crappy health care but it doesn't matter because they found a cure for cancer? I know which one I want. 

Other then that though, this was a quiet night for Huckabee. I think he helped himself a little bit, especially when he teamed up with Trump, but he mostly faded into the background. Huckabee needs a huge debate performance to try and get back into the race.

Chris Christe:
Listen, I dislike Chris Christe. I think he is a bad candidate with bad ideas. And I don't want him as the Republican candidate. But he was amazing in this debate. I'm starting to see why people like him, and even though I think his ideas are terrible, his debate performance was great. Not as good as the leaders like Rubio, Cruz and Trump, but still pretty damn good.

His best moment was when he completely shut down a question about daily fantasy football. His response was basically, "who cares stupid, ask a real question". Sure daily fantasy sports are annoying and I think the whole thing is a pyramid scheme, but that doesn't mean that we should regulate it or even talk about it during the debate. Ban it or let it go, but in the end I doubt it would matter in the long term. 

I don't like Christie but I think this debate will help him. Not much mind you, but enough to keep him in the race.

John Kasich:
Terrible performance for Kasich. He talked a lot more then other debates, but when he did it was mostly stupid. After he attacked Trump and Carson in the beginning, I stopped listening to him. It was clear that he was playing right into the moderators plans. In any other debate I wouldn't have minded him attacking people, but it's clear that all the moderators cared about was discrediting Republicans in general. He thought he was attacking his opponents but what he was really doing was attacking his party. 

Other then that, I don't think he made any decent points or had any good moments. Trump shut him down and as far as I am concerned that was a good thing. This is a far cry from his first debate when he stuck with the issues and made his case as to why we should vote for him. 

Rand Paul:
I said after the last debate that Paul should just stick with the issues and give up on picking fights with everyone. Well, he must have listened to my advice because that is exactly what he did. He almost took it too far because he didn't even attack the media. Everyone should have attacked the media in this debate and the fact that he didn't hurts his campaign.
He also said that he was going to filibuster the debt deal. I wish he wouldn't. The last time the government got shut down it was a coup for the Democratic Party. It made the Republicans look like extremists and really hurt their image. If he does it again it is not going to help anyone. And quite frankly, I don't think people care all that much about the debt ceiling. Sure, fiscal conservatives care, but everyone else is going to be pissed off. Indeed, other then Rand Paul, the issue hardly came up. I don't see this as helping Paul's chances. 

Conclusions:
This was a terrible debate for the media but a decent one for the Republican field. Some candidates did poorly but they all gained from the clear attacks by the moderators. I think that everyone in the Republican Party gained some goodwill from the debate. 

Still, I don't think it helped me at all decide about who to vote for. The issues they talked about were largely irrelevant to me. And I think that's true for the rest of the country as well. People don't care about the debt ceiling or taxes. They care about immigration, gun rights, abortion, and foreign policy, and none of these issues came up much during the debate. This is really bad since the Democratic debate was largely focused on those issues. For example, we heard more about gun control in the Democratic debate then we have in all three Republican debates combined. 

The main story out of this debate will be, of course, how badly CNBC bungled the debate. I am hoping that they don't moderate any further ones and I am hoping in the future that the other debates are run better. Let's hope this debate was a fluke and not a sign of things to come.

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