The Iraqi offensive against ISIS in Tikrit has bogged down. Yahoo/Reuters

An Iraqi soldier praying before the start of the battle. Yahoo/Reuters.

The new offensive to take back Tikrit from ISIS has bogged down for the third strait day. Yahoo/Reuters. The battle has changed from a swift moving offensive that took half the city to a series of skirmishes and sniper attacks. The attack sputtered out on Friday when supplies and reinforcements were requested. Those supplies and reinforcements have not yet arrived. The Iraqi and Shia militia fighters are facing brutal house to house fighting with many bombs and booby traps scattered everywhere. Iraqi forces are split in two with attacks in both the north and south of the city. 

My Comment:

Looks like the battle of Tikrit isn't going quite as well as we had hoped. I said in my last post about this battle that since the Iraqi forces so outnumbered the enemy they should win, but only if they didn't have any morale and supply problems. Flash forward a few days and that is exactly what they have. 

I missed a major factor for this battle and that is probably the most important factor in any battle. Logistics. Iraq may have 20,000 to 30,000 troops while ISIS has nowhere near as many but if they can't move up supplies and reinforcements it doesn't matter. ISIS has an advantage here because they were prepared to keep Tikrit. I am sure they stockpiled supplies before and during the battle, and with no U.S. air cover they are probably able to move around troops and equipment without much trouble. Iraq has longer supply lines and hasn't given much indication that they have much skill when it comes to logistics. Iraq also has to coordinate between their troops and the Iranian backed militias. They also need to work with the Kurds and to get them to try and pressure ISIS supply lines as well. 

Iraq will still almost certainly win this battle but any hopes of a quick victory will be dashed if they can't get their logistical problems sorted out. ISIS will be using this time to either bring in more troops and supplies or evacuate so more of their troops and equipment survive the battle. They could be doing both by withdrawing from weak points and fortifying strong ones. They are also being given time to create more traps and bombs to make the offensive even more costly. In short, every day this offensive is delayed will cost the Iraqi's dearly. 

What's my prediction for this battle? Iraq will eventually get its supplies and reinforcements into battle but the delay will cost them dearly. ISIS will have had time to prepare and decide how they want to fight the battle. The real question I don't have an answer for is if they will fight to hold the city or evacuate most of their fighters. My guess is they will fight it out, meaning that this will be a bloody and hard fought battle. I don't see Iraq losing the battle but I don't know what condition the Iraqi Army will be in when it is finished. 

Of course the longer the battle goes on the worse it is for the civilians caught in the crossfire. Having a major battle in a city is always terrible for the population. But when both sides are known for committing atrocities, the situation is much, much worse. My fear is that the longer the battle goes on the better the chances are that the Shia militias get frustrated and take out that frustration on the Sunni population. As far as I know that hasn't happened yet in this battle but the longer it goes on the chances go up. 

Kurds accuse ISIS of using chlorine gas in Iraq. AP

Kurdish troops investigate a bomb site in Iraq. AP

Kurdish troops are accusing ISIS of using chlorine gas in a suicide attack last January. AP. The attack took place on a road between Mosul and the Syrian border during a battle to secure the road between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga forces. The Kurds provided evidence, including around 20 canisters of chlorine and video that appeared to show the gas coming from a suicide vehicle that subsequently blew up. Dozens of Kurdish troops were treated for exposure. The Kurds said that samples taken from the site confirmed that the chemical used was chlorine. Outside sources were unable to verify this attack but this is not the first time that the Islamic State has been accused of using chemical weapons. Reports of chlorine attacks happened last year as well in both Iraq and Syria.

Video from the BBC about the tactic of using chlorine as a chemical weapon.

My Comment:

Not a good development. Like both the AP article and BBC video said, this tactic is not new, but it does seem to be more common. I don't think these attacks are especially effective, but as a terror weapon they are horrifying. People have a great fear of chemical weapons, and for good reason. Plus this tactic has the bonus of making it more difficult to treat people wounded in the initial attack because the responders will be exposed to gas. That delay of treatment and the secondary injuries this gas causes could make suicide or other kinds of bombing even more deadly. 

It also doesn't seem like Iraq or the Kurds have an effective plan on how to prevent or react to these attacks. The BBC video said that most Iraqi troops aren't issued gas masks or other protective equipment, which just seems crazy to me. As far as military equipment goes, gas masks are pretty cheap, but apparently they were not a priority. Also, these kinds of attacks are very hard to prevent because chlorine is rather easy to get a hold of. Chlorine has many industrial purposes and because of that fact you can't get rid of it. You can try and control it but given the state of Iraq and Syria right now it isn't surprising that ISIS was able to find some. 

The great fear is that what ISIS is learning about chemical weapons will someday be exported to terrorists organizations that are targeting the west. Even a minor chemical attack by an Islamic terrorist group in the west would have a huge impact that would go beyond the people it made sick or killed. The good news is that chlorine is a bit harder to get a hold of in the west then it is in a failed state like Iraq or Syria. The bad news is that is probably easier to get a hold of the chlorine needed in a gas bomb then it is to find the explosives...

The good news is that it appears that ISIS has not been able to capture any more serious chemical weapons from either Syria or Iraq. There was some concern a few months ago that ISIS had taken control of a facility that housed Iraq's leftover chemical weapons, but apparently nothing ever came of it. Of course the fact that very few people even realize that Iraq had chemical weapons, most people ignored that report. It is possible that ISIS was able to secure those chemical weapons and we never heard about it because it was politically inconvenient. The fact that the New York Times piece that exposed the fact that there were still huge stockpiles of chemical weapons in Iraq got very little further coverage says to me that the powers that be do not want this discussion to happen. In other words, people outside of the intelligence community won't hear about ISIS holding leftover chemical weapons until they try to use them... 

Iraqi forces are committing war crimes in their fight against ISIS. ABC

Iraqi special forces drag an ISIS fighter. ABC News/Instagram

The U.S. government is accusing Iraqi forces of war crimes in their fight against ISIS. ABC News. Dozens of images posted on social media show Iraqi forces committing atrocities. The accounts of these atrocities have led to some Iraqi units lose their funding. Under the so called "Leahy law", the U.S. government is forbidden from providing aid to units that commit human rights abuses. Iraq is investigating the claims. The atrocities include beheading, killing of civilians, and even the murder of children. The crimes are not just being committed by the Iraqi army, with many of the Shia led militias doing the same things. The actions of these Iraqi army units mirror those of ISIS. 

My Comment:

I'm not too surprised about these reports. I have known that the Shia militias have committed several war crimes in the past so it isn't too surprising that the Iraqi army is getting in on the action as well. In some ways this isn't unexpected. After all ISIS has committed so many atrocities that the desire for revenge must be incredibly high. In short, when an enemy offers you no quarter and executes your fellow fighters when they surrender, there is very little incentive to follow the rules of war. 

That is a reason not an excuse. Though I am not in any way sympathetic to ISIS, this is still wrong. Even if you were to argue that ISIS isn't entitled to the rules of war because they are a terrorist organization, this goes way beyond what is acceptable. You don't kill and torture captured enemies because it takes away the incentive to surrender. And it is always wrong to just out and out murder civilians. 

In addition, atrocities are usually counter productive, especially when you consider that many civilians are getting killed in these attacks as well. I've mentioned before that the Iraq War is largely a sectarian conflict. My guess is that these units are Shia and the victims are Sunni. When one of these groups starts targeting civilians all they are doing is reinforcing the idea that the whole war is just an effort to destroy Sunni Muslims. Even if the Sunni Muslims hate ISIS, they will support them if the only other option is to be killed by the Iraqi Army. It is free propaganda for ISIS and a great recruiting tool for them. 

And if this is how the Iraqi Army is acting, how do you think the Shia militias are going to act? There is even less restraint among the Shia groups then there is in the Army. The Iraq War is going to a very dark place and it would not surprise me if the whole thing ends with one group or another getting slaughtered. 

So what can the U.S. do? Other then cutting funding for some of these groups, not much. Iran is in control now, and they care little about atrocities. Indeed, they may be encouraging since they have a vested interest in creating divisions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. The U.S. doesn't have nearly as much leverage with the Iraqi government as Iran does because Iran actually has troops on the ground fighting ISIS. The U.S. only has trainers and air support, many of which are working with the Kurds instead of the Iraqi Army. The best the United States can do is make sure that the Kurds, who they have considerably more influence over, don't start doing the same thing. 

Australian teen joins ISIS, blows himself up in Iraq and accomplishes nothing. BBC

Jake Bilardi with ISIS. BBC/Twitter.

An 18 year old Australian joined ISIS and blew himself up in a terrorists attack in Ramadi, Iraq. BBC. Jake Bilardi was one of several suicide bombers that attacked Ramadi in an attack that largely accomplished nothing. Iraq reports zero deaths from the attack, though other sources claim five deaths. ISIS released a photo of Bilardi driving a truck loaded with explosives. Bilardi traveled to ISIS held Iraq months ago. Unconfirmed reports claim that Bilardi had left IED's at his Australian home along with plans to attack Melborne. Bilardi claimed that he was "chasing death" and wanted to kill as many infidels as possible. 

My Comment:

What a waste. Jake Bilardi blew himself up for no reason and accomplished nothing, if you believe the Iraqi government. The fact that he was a teenager makes it even more tragic. I guess that it is good that he failed so spectacularly. Perhaps other young people will see his example and question whether joining ISIS is a good idea or not. 

Given what Bilardi looks like I doubt ISIS could find anything else for him to do short of blowing himself up. He had no real fighting ability or training so the only way he could contribute was by driving a truck filled with explosives into the enemy and he could not even do that right. It would have taken months to train Bilardi to be a fighter or some other kind of useful skill. Any idiot can drive a truck bomb though, though not always successfully. It is possible that Bilardi volunteered for this mission, but even if he did it shows how much ISIS values the lives of its recruits. 

The real question is how an 18 year old non-Muslim suddenly decides to convert to Islam and join the most radical form of the religion. From what I have read Bilardi was an atheist who self-radicalized. Reading excerpts from his blog, it seems clear that he was upset by the actions of the United States and Australia in the Middle East. He also lost his mother to cancer in 2012 and was apparently bullied in school. Still it makes very little sense to me. Even if you dislike your governments actions it seems insane to me to change your religion over it, let alone blowing up people in a country that has very little to do with your own. 

Of course, Jake Bilardi is not the only foreign fighter to join up with ISIS. At least 100 other Australian fighters have joined up with ISIS. Hundreds of others from Europe and America have joined as well. A lot of them are actual fighters instead of untrained recruits. This is a problem that is going to get worse before it will get better. And there is always the concern that one of these fighters will return home and conduct a terror attack. 

Two cops shot during a protest in Ferguson. Yahoo/AP

Police on the scene reacting to the attack. Yahoo/AP.

Two police officers were shot during a protest at the Ferguson police station after the chief resigned. Yahoo/AP. One officer was shot in the face while the other was shot in the shoulder. Both are in serious condition. Both officers worked for St. Louis county and not the Ferguson police department. The attack happened shortly after midnight as protesters were expressing their objection to the resignation of the police chief, Thomas Jackson, who was criticized for his response for the Michael Brown shooting. Jackson was not the only official that has resigned or been fired for the Brown shooting as 5 other employees left after the Justice Department released a report indicating corruption and bias in the department. The protesters were upset that Jackson will receive a salary and health benefits for a year after he is gone. 

My Comment:

Much like the attack in New York, I am sure that this is another "revenge" attack. That attack was due to a man getting swept up in the Michael Brown and Eric Gardner hysteria that swept the nation last year. It looks like it is happening again. Whatever complaints these protesters had and no matter how bad the Ferguson police department was or is, nothing justifies attempted murder.

 Some will object to me blaming all the protesters when this was almost certainly the result of a single deranged person. To those people I say that none of this would have happened if the Michael Brown shooting had not gone viral. Had people waited for any kind of investigation they would have known that the  "hands up don't shoot" meme was nothing but propaganda and slander. Even the Justice Department report, which was incredibly critical of the Ferguson police department, cleared Darren Wilson. But the truth got swallowed up by thousands of tweets, tumbles and shares. 

Whatever the sins of the Ferguson police department, and there were many, especially with their response to the shooting, killing innocent people was not one of them. Michael Brown was not an innocent victim. He was a criminal who attacked a cop. But so many people never heard the facts of this case or heard them after their minds were made up. This created conditions where a few deranged people were able to justify an attack on these officers. The question now becomes how many times will this happen again? 

Of course, even if Darren Wilson was a cold blooded murder and Michael Brown was really the gentle giant everyone on Twitter and Tumblr said he was, this still wouldn't be justified. Revenge is never justified, even for murder, let alone for accusations of corruption and racism. 

As for the Justice Department report, I'd advise caution. Any department headed by Eric Holder is going to find racism wherever it looks. That doesn't mean that there was no racism in the Ferguson police department, but it does call into question any accusation from the Justice Department. I'd like a third party to investigate, but that probably isn't going to happen... The accusations of corruption and profit based policing are a bit more concerning to me though. That, combined with the way Ferguson was handled in the days after the shooting says to me that Thomas Jackson should probably be shown the door. Still, nothing justifies a shooting.