France drops the fuel tax in 2019 budget in response to the Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Jackets protest. Too little too late?

French Gilets Jaunes protesters. According to google translate, the sign reads "Macron the people sovereign advance". BBC/AFP.

The government of France has dropped the controversial green fuel tax from the 2019 budget after widespread protests from the Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Jackets protest. BBC. The protests have shaken France for the last three weekends and further protests are due on Saturday. The response from the government is not a complete suspension of the bill, but a six month delay. In addition, planned increases in gas and electricity charges have been postponed and tougher vehicle emissions standards have been put on hold. 

My Comment:

Too little too late, would be my guess. The time to do this was after the first weekend of protests. It is far too late now for half measures. The Yellow Jackets not only want this tax hike gone, they want lower taxes in general. This dropping of a price hike doesn't make anything better for the lower and middle classes, it's just a promise that things won't get worse for one fiscal year, after which all bets are off. 

Indeed, it's almost insulting to think that the French people would go along with this. They get nothing from this deal and I doubt it will do anything to quell the massive protests that are erupting throughout France right now. It might even anger them further, if such a thing is possible. 

What might work would be an actual tax cut. From what I understand French people pay about $7.00 a gallon for gas and most of that is taxes. If they were to reduce that price to $5.00 a gallon or lower it might be enough to quell these protests, or at least erode popular support for them.Same with any other major tax cuts. I doubt that will happen though. 

Emmanuel Macron has been massively tone deaf during these protests. Marie Antoinette famously (and perhaps attributed) said  "Qu'ils mangent de la brioche". Let them eat cake (or brioches). Well Macron is essentially saying to the French people let them use green energy if they can't afford to buy gasoline. Everyone remembers what happened to Marie Antoinette, so it looks like Macron hasn't learned from his own history. 

I'm expecting massive protests on Saturday, to the point where there could be violence. There actually has been quite a bit of protest this week, with ambulances blocking streets, students joining the protests and fuel depots being blocked. The situation is a lot worse for the French government than the western media is admitting. It's to the point where if I was in France I would be stocking up on food, water, trade goods and weapons in preparation for what could be a very chaotic and dangerous transition period, or even civil war. 

It almost seems inevitable that the French government will collapse. I can't imagine Macron surviving this and I am not even sure if I am talking about his political career or his life. I've never seen a Western country so angry and it even looks worse than the situation in Ukraine. I don't think anything will satisfy the Yellow Jackets other than a new government. 

On a more personal note, I plan on watching the protests live on Saturday morning. Since it will be early in the morning and I won't be home for all of it, I will probably miss some of it. But I do plan on watching streams for awhile and may even live tweet things. You can always find my tweets here. I also cross post on Gab if you are on there or just don't like Twitter.  

Homeowner shoots and kills escaped convict after he kicks down her door.

Bruce Webb McLaughlin (left) and Timothy Dill. CBS News/Pickens County Sheriff's Department. 

A South Carolina woman shot and killed an escaped convict who kicked in her door. CBS News. The convict, Bruce Webb McLaughlin escaped with another convict, Timothy Dill from Pickens County Prison by wounding two guards. Dill was captured by police shortly after but McLaughlin kicked down a door to the woman's house, picked up a foot long metal sharpening tool and entered the woman's bedroom. The woman, who has asked to remain anonymous, shot the intruder in the head, killing him. The woman had a CCW permit and weapons training. Local police are not planning on filing charges against the woman and have hailed her as a "hero".

My Comment:

This could have gone very differently if the woman hadn't been armed. McLaughlin was an extremely dangerous person and was likely to injure or kill the homeowner. In addition to assaulting the prison guards, he had also been arrested for assaulting a cop and pointing a gun at someone, along with many other crimes. Though there was no guarantee that he would have hurt or killed this woman, it wouldn't be surprising if he did if she had been unarmed. 

This was pretty obviously a good shooting. South Carolina is a castle doctrine state so the fact that he broke in was all the legal justification she needed. But even without castle doctrine, she probably would have been fine. He didn't just break into the house, he was advancing on the woman while armed with a foot long hunk of metal.She had no where to go and no choice but to use force to protect her life. There is essentially zero chance of her being punished in this case. I think even in Europe she wouldn't have been charged with murder.

This incident also shows the importance of training. The woman managed to pull off a headshot on close range attacker, which is difficult even for an expert shooter. That makes me think she had a lot of practice at the gun range, which is backed up by the article which stated she had gun training. Of course going for a headshot isn't always a good strategy as it is smaller than the torso, but it worked out in this case. It's possible that she just shot high, which isn't surprising but if she did go for the headshot, I am impressed that she pulled it off. Either way, it worked out in the best way for the woman.

I do have to wonder how the convicts escaped. Both of them were awaiting trial but given the seriousness of the crimes they were charged with and McLaughlin prior convictions, you would have thought they would have been in a higher security area. How they managed to escape just by beating up a couple of prison guards is a huge question and one that probably deserves an investigation. 

It does go to show how dangerous these men were. They were smart enough to formulate an escape plan and crazy enough to attack two guards. They were strong enough to beat up those guards and were somehow able to escape. They were both obviously a huge threat to the public and I am glad that both of them are no longer a threat. Unfortunately Dill is still alive and not in the morgue like his partner McLaughlin. 

I don't blame the woman for being anonymous. I know the last thing most people would want to do after going through something like this is talk to the media. This case made national news so I bet there was a chance for a media circus, which is always something I would want to avoid. Plus, given the fact that she was a woman who used her gun to protect herself, there is a decent chance she could get harassed and death threats by anti-gun trolls. 

Still, this woman did the right thing and the cops did the right thing by backing her. She never should have been placed in this situation in the first place but given the situation she did what she had to do to survive. She's still around and a true scumbag isn't. That's a win-win as far as I am concerned. 

Students join the Yellow Jackets protests.

French students block the streets in Bordeaux. The Guardian/AFP.

Hundreds of students have joined widespread protests against the government of Emmanuel Macron in France. The Guardian. The students are protesting against education reforms. At more than 100 schools across the country, students walked out of classes and blockaded streets. The students were not the only protests on Monday as the Yellow Jackets blocked access to 11 fuel depots causing some fuel shortages at 70 gas stations. Though the Prime Minister of France is due to meet with members of the Yellow Jackets, but since the movement has no clear hierarchy or leadership, little is expected from the meeting. 

My Comment:

It sounds as though the situation in France is no longer in control. With hundreds of students joining up with their own protest against the government it looks like pretty much everyone is against them. The goals of the students are a bit different than the wider Yellow Jackets movement as they are protesting against education reform, but in general they are just as angry with the government as everyone else is. 

If the students join the larger Yellow Jackets movement it will be a huge increase in the number of protesters. They will be able to shut down things even more effectively. Already the Yellow Jackets are having a major impact on what they are shutting down, if the students join them they can essentially shut down the country. 

But the Yellow Jackets might not even need the students. Shutting down fuel depots alone might be enough to bring the French government to their knees. Gasoline is the blood of any countries economy and trade and manufacturing doesn't happen without the infrastructure to transport commodities. 

Shutting down fuel depots is a huge escalation and will likely draw a response. The French government knows that fuel is hugely important and not having access to it will likely shut down the economy. That will make people even more angry and likely to join the protesters. 

I have heard that the protests have even targeted the Rungis Wholesale Market, which is the largest wholesale market in the world. I haven't been able to confirm that independently and the only source I have is Twitter, so that might end up being fake news. If not though, it will have huge repercussions throughout France and even beyond. 

I have also seen reports of paramedics, firefighters and police joining the protests. Again, I don't have a news media source for this but I have seen videos that seem to confirm these reports. If true that means that the lower levels of the French government are not supporting the government anymore. How widespread that support remains to be seen. 

As far as Macron goes, it seems clear that he isn't going to offer up any concessions to the Yellow Jackets. That's a huge mistake and I don't think he quite understands how much danger he is in. It's not just a matter of him losing power, that seems inevitable at this point, he might even end up in exile or worse...

I think the only way out for him is if he listens to the Yellow Jackets demands and gives them something. Repealing the gas tax is pretty much a bare minimum and even that might not be enough anymore. If he did that he might have a chance of staying in power for the rest of his term but if he doesn't I am guessing he will be removed from power, either through resignation, revolution or through other means.

Of course there is always the option of a crackdown. That would probably lead to complete government collapse or a civil war. Assuming that the police and military even follow orders to attack the protesters, doing so would not end well for France. Remember, the Syria situation was relatively peaceful until regime forces opened up on the crowds. A crackdown is probably the worst solution for anyone because it won't work and will result in a large amount of violence. 

This weekend will be the critical juncture. Most of the Yellow Jacket protesters are working class people who are busy during the week. They can't protest during the week because they need to work. Next weekend will likely have huge protests and they may shut down the entire country. I will be watching the protests very closely next weekend. 

Weekend Movie Night: Operation Red Sea

Operation Red Sea movie poster. Bona Film Group. 

For my newest movie review, I'm going to cover Operation Red Sea, a Chinese action movie very loosely based on an actual event that occurred during the Yemeni civil war in 2015. During that conflict China evacuated hundreds of Chinese and foreign civilians as the country fell into chaos and fighting between the government and Houthi rebels. 

It's a fairly decent action/war movie and I recommend it. It's not the best by any stretch but I was happy that I watched it, even if there was some inaccuracies and silliness. I was impressed by it's quality and I recommend it to anyone who likes action or war movies and can stand reading subtitles. It's also an important film for historical reasons because it tells us a ton about how China views their military and their role in the world. 

Before I say anything else, though the film was based on a true event, it is obviously not an attempt to tell the real story that happened in 2015. The Chinese Navy was given a much larger role and was thrust into combat in the movie while none of that happened in real life. It was by all accounts a successful mission for the Chinese but as far as I am aware most of the major events in this film did not happen. It almost seems as if the film was more of a "what if?" scenario where things went wrong and the special forces had to be deployed. 

The plot of the movie was fairly simple and I will warn that there are spoilers ahead. China's PLA Navy is patrolling for pirates and help save a Chinese cargo ship from Somali pirates. China's elite Jiaolong assault team responds to the pirates, killing all of them while losing their sniper to injury.

After that they are brought into the Yemeni conflict. Though the names of the major players have been changed, China evacuates their citizens in the middle of a conflict between the Yemeni government and the Houthi Rebels. An al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula or ISIS themed group called Zaka is also involved in the plot. 

The Chinese manage to rescue their consulate personal and then attempt to save a large group of civilians and a French-Chinese reporter. They manage to evacuate the people but their convoy is ambushed by Zaka and most of the civilians die horribly. The Jiaolong group then attempts to rescue more civilians, including a Chinese national, and succeed, though taking heavy casualties. Finally, they have a final showdown with Zaka as they discover they are plotting dirty bomb attacks. 

For what it is worth, the plot is fairly basic. It does get the relative factions right in Yemen and shows just how horrible that conflict has been. It also doesn't take much in the way of chances and there is no ambiguity over who the bad guys and good guys are. That's not surprising since the film is essentially a propaganda piece, but it's also probably the films weakest point. 

The action is pretty good though. It's a bit over the top compared to US war films, which are more about gritty realism, but it's serviceable. There were a few parts that were kind of silly, including a scene where two cars are driving along while one flips on top of the other one, all while the passengers shoot at each other. I'd say if it had been a less serious film it would have been fine but it did bug me a bit. 

Operation Red Sea was beautifully shot though. Morocco stands in for Yemen and they did an amazing job making the country look like a war zone. The action scenes are pretty good but the scenery and special effects were on par with a major Hollywood release. That's amazing since they only spent $70 million making the film. There are few scenes that had obvious special effects and in some cases I wasn't sure if what I was seeing was an effect at all. The movie had some very impressive visuals. 

There were a few things that were kind of dumb though. Though the movie provides a handwave about it, it was very distracting to see Chinese troops using American and European weapons and vehicles. Though they did use accurate QBZ-95's and 97's in some scenes, it was hugely distracting to see Chinese troops using fully kitted out SCAR's and CZ-BREN's. Sure, the idea that the Chinese couldn't use their own weapons due to them being incompatible with local forces makes some sense, but it still felt weird. Plus, I get that the troops are special forces but they seemed to be way too familiar with foreign weapons and even steal a tank at one point, somehow knowing how to drive and shoot it.  

Another thing that was strange was that one of the Jaiolong operators was a woman. Tong Li, a machine gunner was the only woman in the squad and it made me wonder if any Chinese women had actually made it to that high of a level in the Chinese special forces. I looked into it and did not find any good answers. About 7.5% of China's military is female and they do have women in combat roles, especially as fighter pilots, but I wasn't able to figure out if they serve in the infantry. 

Regardless of how accurate it was, I did like that they made her actually look like a solider by shaving her head and making her look tough. In an American movie you know she would have long blond hair, would weigh 90 lbs and would have perfect hair and makeup despite being in a massive war zone. She still managed to beat a larger man in hand to hand combat, but to be fair she was getting her ass kicked before she turned it around. Much better than the whole "90 lbs woman somehow beats up 30 full size guys without even getting a scratch on her" thing that US movies are obsessed with.. 

I do have to say that I was very surprised at how bloody this movie was. Hundreds of people die and some of them do so in realistic horrible ways. People lose limbs, have their faces blown off and get blown to bits. That's fairly realistic but in all but rare to see in American movies that aren't either going for over the top gore or full realism (or both like the last Rambo movie.) If you are at all sensitive to such things, you might want to skip Operation Red Sea.

I was also surprised that China was willing to show their troops get wounded and killed. Two of the main characters die and three more are severely wounded, including the sniper in the beginning. I think even some Chinese civilians and military police die as well, which is surprising. The film doesn't shy away from the horrors of combat and shows that even the "good guys" can get hurt and killed. And one of the soldiers, the spotter for the sniper team, has some pretty obvious signs of PTSD. 

In that way, the film is similar to the US Navy's own propaganda film, Act of Valor. Indeed, you could very easily compare the two films. Both of them are recruitment films for the special operations forces for their respective countries. Both of them are better than they had any right to be. Both of them are excellent action films. And both of them are totally propaganda. 

So how effective was the film on the propaganda front? It certainly made the PLA Navy look competent and high tech. Indeed, I doubt that the Chinese Navy could pull off everything they could do in this film. They did act honorable and were trying to help people which paints them in a good light and would entice recruits with promises of action, while at the same time reminding them that they could get blown up or killed. 

I do have to say that the last part of the film was more than a little jarring. After the funeral services for the dead Jaiolong members, the setting switches to the South China Sea, where a Chinese fleet is telling an American one to back off. It has nothing to do with the rest of the movie but is a middle finger to the US Navy and is followed by more real life pictures of the Chinese Navy in action. 

The entire movie seems to be a message, not only to the Chinese people, but to the whole world. China is strong. China has a competent military. China is willing to take casualties to get what they want. And China isn't going to leave the world stage anytime soon. It's a strong message and one that is more than a little concerning. They won't let terrorists or America get in their way... 

Yellow Jackets movement continues with major protests in Paris.

An aerial view of the protest. ABC News/AP.

France's Yellow Jackets protest continued this weekend with a major protest in Paris ending with 200 arrests and 92 injuries. ABC News. The French government estimates that 5500 people showed up in Paris alone. Some violence and disorder occurred in Paris as protesters threw rocks and police, set cars on fire and erected barricades. Rioters fought with police at the Arc de Triumph monument before being pushed back by tear gas and water cannons. The Yellow Jackets protests, named after the high visiablity vests that most of the protesters wear, started in response to fuel tax increases and has spread from the countryside into most major French cities. 

The Yellow Jackets movement has also spread to Belgium where police and protesters fought in Brussels. AP. The Yellow Jackets movement has been in Belgium for awhile now but this was the first time they protested en-mass. 60 people were arrested in that protest. 

My Comment:

I spent the morning watching the protests unfold live via RT's livestream. I have a few observations to make. First of all, I was stunned at the makeup of these protests. Some of the more "front line" people were the typical younger male troublemakers that were there to have a fun time rioting. But the vast majority were older people. Men and women who were over the age of 30, established in their life and presumably with a lot to lose. 

That's pretty unprecedented as far as I am concerned. I don't know if it is different in Europe but in America it seems that these kinds of protests only attract younger people. The social class seemed different as well. Though it is obviously impossible to tell someone's social class just by looking at them, the protests seemed a lot more "blue collar" than most. In most protests I have seen it's usually made up of a combination of spoiled rich kids, professional protesters who have been doing it for money since the 1960's and the underclass. To see the middle aged people who look like they have their lives together there, a group who usually avoid protests like the plague, is pretty amazing to me. I guess it is possible that France has a different protest culture but it still appears significant to me. 

This protests also seemed a lot more serious than other ones. There was quite a bit of civil disorder going on and at times it looked a lot like the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that toppled their government. People were lighting cars on fire, building barriers and digging up cobblestones to throw at the cops. The cops were pretty aggressive too as I saw them utterly destroy one man who was hit with a water cannon and a tear gas canister/smoke grenade at the same time. There were more than a couple of direct skirmishes between the cops and protesters as well, but most seemed content to watch and kept their distance. I know that Europe has a different protest culture than America and lighting cars on fire is kind of a hobby for France in particular but it was still fairly shocking to me. 

I am somewhat surprised that the Yellow Jacket movement has moved on outside of France. From what it sounds like there has also been protests in Italy and Belgium. That tends to show that high fuel taxes are only one of the reasons people are protesting and there is probably an anti-globalism undercurrent to these protests. High taxes are an European universal though, so I shouldn't be that surprised. 

I do have to say that it is fairly interesting to me to hear reports that the far right and far left are working together against the government in France. That seems inconceivable to me from my American perspective and just goes to show how unpopular Emmanuel Macron's moves have been. I can't imagine, for example, The Proud Boys and Antifa teaming up to fight cops here in the US. Of course the far right here almost never fights with police, which is different than in Europe, but even still, I can't imagine either side coming together to fight against the government. 

Speaking of Macron, I wonder if his government will survive this. He seems pretty tone deaf and has been handling this crisis poorly. He's not even in the country right now and is instead glad-handing it in Argentina with the other G-20 leaders. He has offered to have the tax increase be tied to gas prices but that has done nothing to placate these people. If he had backed down right away and got rid of the gas tax he might have been ok, but I don't know if these people will be satisfied unless he steps down. 

How bad could things get? Like I said before, the disorder I saw looked a bit like the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that ended up with a new government, a civil war, and a whole lot of dead people. It obviously isn't to that point yet. Nobody is making Molotov cocktails on an industrial scale and establishing camps and the cops aren't shooting protesters. But I think they are getting closer to that point and if it does get there things will spiral out of control very quickly. 

I think that Macron should probably step down. It's clear that the country doesn't want him anymore and if he doesn't there is a real chance of widespread civil disorder at best and civil war at worst. He could try and back down and reverse these unpopular policies but I don't even know if that would work at this point. The best thing he could do is just drop out and let someone else fix this mess. Time will tell if that happens.