The Ukrainian Civil war has gone international. -War is Boring

When you destroy civilian aircraft, the world takes notice. -War is Boring With anger (also reported on here for the U.S. government response) the world reacts to the downing of Flight 17. Evidence that the rebels most likely fired the shot will have consequences. The world reacted harshly the the destruction of KAL 007 by the Soviet Union, Avianca 203 by Pablo Escobar and Iran Air 655 by the United States, so there is more then enough precedence.

My Comment:
Huge mistake is an understatement. Should the Rebels turn out to the be guilty party, and all evidence at this point implies they will, then all hell will come down on them. Putin will face enormous pressure to force a cease fire and cut off support for the rebels. Whatever sympathy the world had for the Rebels has evaporated completely. I myself had a bit of sympathy for them but it's gone now, with the caveat that I think it's still too early to blame anyone without a more meaningful investigation.

To recap, if you were the rebels right now, your only ally is probably going to abandon you, the world hates you, and the best case scenario is that you surrender. It's about the worst mistake they could have made. And I still think it was a complete accident. Of course Hanlon's razor is in full effect here. Incompetence this bad may as well be malice.

As much as I like War is Boring, and I do highly recommend it, they missed the most obvious example of the destruction of civilian airplanes. 9/11. It completely changed the world resulting in at a global war. And it's easy to forget for a time it made America into a country that could do no wrong in the eyes of the world. Iraq changed that but it was true for awhile. Maybe it was just too obvious?

Why was flight 17 flying over a war zone? -Yahoo/AP

It's been a tough year for Malaysia Airlines. -Yahoo/AP

Why was flight 17 flying over a war zone? -Yahoo/AP. War zones are often ignored by airlines. In this case some airlines did avoid the war zone but many others did not. The bottom line is that it would cost money for the airlines to have avoided the combat zone.

My Comment:

 Like always, it comes down to money. These airlines did not want to eat the costs of rerouting these flights. Passenger air travel is especially sensitive to operating costs, and anything that increases these costs will be avoided if at all possible. 

Some airlines did avoid the area. Malaysia Airlines was not one of them. I think it has a lot to do with the disappearance of Flight 370. That black eye must have hurt their business considerably, so it makes some sense that they would take the risk. It really backfired on them though, nobody is going to want to get on a Malaysia Airlines flight right now.

As for the risk, people should have known the danger. I reported that very morning that there were planes being shot at and being shot down in the region. I understand that these Ukrainian planes were taken down by MANPADS, which don't have the range to hit passenger planes at cruising altitude (and possibly in one case in a air-to-air battle) and not the SA-17 "Buk" missiles, but the risk was obvious. Everyone involved with the risk management for these airlines knew that both the Ukrainians and the Russians had sophisticated anti-air systems that could hit cruising altitude passenger planes, with operators who had very good reason to be trigger happy, but they chose to ignore the threat. 

I know that both the Russian and Ukrainian governments approved the flight plan for Flight 17 but no matter who shot down the plane I believe that the airline deserves quite a bit of blame as well. Profit margins are all well and good but lives trump anything. And even the most cold-hearted capitalist could see that getting a plane full of passengers killed is bad for business.The other airlines who were lucky enough to avoid losing a plane should be criticized as well.  

181 bodies found from Malaysian plane crash, black boxes reportably found. -Yahoo/AP

Onlookers inspect debris. -Yahoo/AP

181 bodies have been recovered from the crash site of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. Yahoo/AP Pro-Russian militia also claim to have recovered 8 out of the 12 black boxes from the wreck. The debris was spread over a large area. Several individuals who died were heading to an HIV/AIDS conference in Australasia. 

My Comment:

I am sure more bodies will be recovered as time goes on. The fact that many of these people were AIDS researchers is just more tragedy heaped on an already tragic event. Hopefully some kind of temporary truce can be called so the recovery effort and investigation can go on unhindered. I'm not holding my breath though, all three sides of this conflict benefit  from murky waters.

EDIT: CNN has an article about the passengers. Dutch Scientist Joep Lange and World Health Organization employee Glenneth Thomas were among the dead. Such a waste. 

Who is responsible for shooting down Malaysian Airlines flight 17

It hasn't even been a day and the finger pointing has already begun. Someone shot down the airplane. And someone has to be held accountable. Here is my list of who could be responsible:

1. The Russians. They have the advanced weaponry to shoot this plane down. It's been reported that some of there troops are undisciplined and under-trained, so they could have had a fire control issue. I can't see them doing this on purpose though, what possible gain do they get from this?

2. The pro-Russian rebels. If they had the weapons system, and that is a big if, I would say that this is the most likely faction to have done this. They are made up of civilians and ex-military types who may not have the skills necessary to figure what the target was.

3. The Ukrainians. You can't count them out as suspects. I know it makes very little sense for the Ukrainians to shoot down a civilian plane in their own territory, but mistakes happen. They have the weapons and it happened in their land.

4. Some other faction or group. I only mention it because its in the realm of possibility, but it is so unlikely that its barely possible. Unfortunately I can see this theory getting more attention then it deserves. Already there are conspiracy theories flying around.

BREAKING NEWS! Maylasian plane crashes at Ukraine/Russian border. Reuters

Unconfirmed reports of a Malaysian plane crashing in Ukraine near the Russian border. -Reuters 295 people were on board. It is unknown how the plane crashed.

My Comment:
This is a breaking news story. I don't know how reliable the reports are at this point but more updates will be coming soon.

EDIT:

OTHER SOURCES:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysian-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html (live updates)

http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysian-plane-crash-russia-border-2014-7 POSSIBLE VIDEO

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ifax-malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-in-ukraine-near-russian-border Malay source.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysian-airlines-boeing-777-295-passengers-aboard-crashes-ukraine-1457111

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/17/malaysian-airlines-crash-ukraine-russia/12779763/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787 (live updates)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/malaysia-airlines-plane-crash-east-ukraine

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-ukraine-151316125.html#Q8f0ndO

EDIT 2:
BBC Just said that the plane may have been shot down. This is huge news.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

http://video.foxnews.com/v/2554140788001/sky-news-reports-on-malaysian-airlines-incident/#sp=watch-live Sky news live feed.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News Reuters live feed

http://rt.com/news/173616-malaysian-crash-ukraine-border/ Russian perspective

EDIT 3:

Picture from the crash site- Reuters