Does the West want war with Russia? -Zero Hedge

Nope, no bias here. Zero Hedge/Peak Prosperity.

Does the west want war with Russia? According to an article posted on Zero Hedge, it's possible. The article proposes that the west has rushed to judgment for the MH-17 disaster, and the rhetoric is so fiery that it can be compared to the lead up to the 2nd Gulf War. Unlike almost any article, they ask "what is America's and the EU's stake in Ukraine"? The author points out that diplomacy prevailed even in the darkest days of the Soviet Union, with disasters far more deadly then the current war in Ukraine. And the author asks if it is even possible to return to diplomacy after all the propaganda. 

My Comment:

Zero Hedge isn't the most reliable source and I don't know much about the site that originally created the article, Peak Prosperity, but it does raise some concerns I have myself. Before I get into anything else though I will say that this article probably goes too far into the Pro-Putin camp. He isn't the insane dictator that the west is making him out to be but he isn't a victim either. And I think it is much more likely that the pro-Russian Rebels were the ones to shoot down the MH-17, even though I agree that the media has jumped the gun. 

As for everything else though, I think he is right. Our handling of Russia since the end of the cold war has been terrible. After the fall of Communism, America had a golden opportunity to turn Russia from an enemy into a friend, but the expansion of NATO ruined that. In a perfect world Russia would have been in NATO, but for whatever reason we decided to expand a treaty organization designed to combat a threat that no longer existed. 

And even though I don't approve of the way both Bush's and Clinton handled Russia, at least they talked to Russia. Remember the 2008 war in Georgia? Sure, Bush made some noise and made some threats, but in the end nothing came of it because he knew that it just wasn't worth it. Obama doesn't seem to feel the same way about Ukraine. Sure they probably shot down MH-17, but we have worked with the Russians through worse. Much worse. Stalin was evil incarnate and we still avoided war with him. I personally think it comes down to the utter hatred the two men, Obama and Putin have for each other. 

Nothing about Obama's Ukraine policy made any sense. We helped to overthrow a democratically elected government to install ultra-nationalists, who in any other context would be the bad guys. When those nationalists decided to persecute a minority by banning their language, something that would have been denounced if it had happened anywhere else, we still supported them. When Russia annexed Crimea, after another democratic election, an election with problems of course but still an accurate measure of what the people wanted, we protested, sanctioned and threatened. Now I am not saying that the Russians or the pro-Russian rebels are innocent. They have a ton of blood on their hands as well. But we can't accuse them of being bullies when we are doing the same thing. 

My question is why? What do we gain from undermining Russia? Doesn't America have enough enemies as it is? How does this end in anything other then a 2nd Cold War, or even worse World War III? So does the west want war with Russia, either in a literal sense or in a 2nd Cold war sense? It doesn't really matter. I've always said there isn't a difference between malice and stupidity when the stakes are this high, and by accident or design we are risking war with a nuclear power over nothing. Yes, MH-17 was a tragedy. Yes, the war in Ukraine was a horrible mistake for all parties involved. It is NOT worth going to war over. Even if it wasn't a morally questionable conflict, it would not make sense to pick a fight with a power that can destroy us, themselves and everything. Let's try diplomacy. If it's not too late. 

Fierce fighting continues in Ukraine. -Yahoo/Reuters.

Rebel fighters in Donetsk. Yahoo/Reuters. 

Heavy fighting continues in Eastern Ukraine as loyalist forces attempt to encircle the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk.  -Yahoo/Reuters. Both cities have come under artillery fire, killing rebels and civilians alike. The fighting is also occurring near the site of the Flight 17 crash, hindering recovery efforts and investigation. Meanwhile, the EU is considering more sanctions against Russia for continuing to support the rebels. 

My Comment:

Expect more of the same in the coming weeks. Ukraine absolutely has to cut off these cities now in order to have any chance at winning this war. Should they surround and encircle Donetsk and Luhansk, they can settle into siege warfare and starve the rebels out. It will be a humanitarian disaster with thousands of civilian casualties but at this point I doubt Ukraine cares. It's either victory here or complete economic collapse. Of course that assumes that Putin and Russia allows siege warfare in an ethnically Russian area...    

What Russians are hearing about Flight 17. -RT

Satellite photo of supposed "Buk" launchers under control of the Ukrainians. -RT

Russian media is reporting that a Su-25 fighter jet was in the area when Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot down. -RT Russians claim the fighter was capable of shooting down the airplane. They also provided satellite images that they claim show "Buk" launchers in the area of the disaster under control of the Ukrainians. Finally they claim that there was unusual activity from Ukrainian radar sets. 

My Comment:

rt.com is run by the Russian government, so they are obviously a very biased source. I thought thought that it would be enlightening to post what the Russians are hearing and what the Russians want the rest of the world to hear. It's obvious propaganda but just because it is propaganda doesn't mean that reading it doesn't help us understand the conflict better. 

As for the specific claims, the one about the Su-25 "Frogfoot" strikes me as ludicrous. The Frogfoot is a ground attack fighter, similar in role to the American A-10 "Warthog" Thunderbolt 2. Yes it can carry air to air missiles but that is not its primary role and the Ukrainians would not use it in this capacity. Second, it has a relatively low flight ceiling so it would be very difficult for it to engage a civilian airliner since they fly so much higher in the air. 

Of course if the report of a Su-25 being in the area happens to be true then a very plausible scenario could have played out. The Russian separatists, using "Buk" launchers that they were not familiar with, saw the Su-25 coming into the area. Somehow they confused Flight 17 with the Su-25 and fired at the wrong plane. With reports that at least three military aircraft had been shot down in a similar manner my guess is they were going for number four but did not confirm their target. That makes a scary amount of sense but I have no way to confirm it. 

As for Russia's claim that there were Ukrainian launchers in the area, I tend to give them more credit. It seems impossible to me that the Ukrainians wouldn't have launchers in the area, like they have claimed. They must have feared an air attack from Russia and indeed claimed that they had already lost one plane to an air to air battle. They would have those launchers near the front line. That, of course, does not mean that they had anything to do with the disaster but I don't think they are being honest either. Indeed, I think it is at least plausible that the rebels did not get the launcher from Russia but took them from Ukraine.

EDIT: CNN has an article that barely mentions these specific claims but does cover the subject. My take is that they are just answering propaganda with propaganda of their own. 

Russia isn't the only one being accused of a cover up. -Zero Hedge

Ukraine's SBU security service has confiscated flight traffic controllers recordings of the Flight 17 disaster. -Zero Hedge.  Zero Hedge feels that with the black box in Russian hands and these recordings in Ukrainian hands it is now no longer possible for outside parties to determine what happened

My Comment: 
Zero Hedge isn't a 100% reliable source but i agree here. There is a very good chance that these recordings will be edited if and when they are released to other investigators. The same thing is true for the Russians, who have been accused of a cover up as well.  Supposedly the United States Government has the capability of determine who fired what with signals and other forms of intelligence. Of course the United States government would never lie about what happened for their own gain! (sarcasm). Sigh, this is going to be such a politically charged investigation that conspiracy theorist will have a field day, even though it's fairly obvious what happened. Some trigger happy Russian made a huge mistake. Russia will downplay and deny, Ukraine and the United States will exaggerate and the truth will be ignored.

Ukraine acusses Russia of cover-up. Yahoo/AP

A tribute placed on the wreckage of flight 17. Yahoo/AP

Ukraine has accused Russia of a cover up regarding Flight 17. Yahoo/AP. Specifically, Ukraine accuses Russia and pro-Russia rebels of transporting bodies and debris from the wreck. An international team was allowed to inspect a small part of the crash site but was driven away when they lingered too long near the wreckage. 

My Comment:

Russia and the pro-Russian rebels really need to rethink their strategy here. Any cover up or interference will just make them look worse in the international community. And there really isn't that much to cover up. Barring some new evidence it's fairly clear that the missile was fired by pro-Russian rebels. I'm guessing it's for domestic reasons. Neither the Rebels or Putin can admit to their people that this was mostly their fault (i still blame the airliner and the air traffic controllers of Ukraine and Russia as well). 

What would i do if i was Putin (assuming this is an accident, if it was on purpose i won't speculate because he would have to be completely insane to do this)? Well first i would cooperate fully with the investigation. Then i would, assuming i knew for a fact that it was the Rebels, admit what had happened. I'd then demand the rebels punish the operators of that missile system, or if they were Russian, court martial the entire crew. I'd also give some token reparations to the families of the victims and donate some money to AIDS research as well, due to all the HIV/AIDS doctors and advocates that died. I'd also call for an investigation of all the air traffic controllers in both Russia and Ukraine and another investigation of every airline that flew in the area after it was clear that airplanes were being shot down. Finally, I would remind people that mistakes happen in the fog of war and that there is plenty of blame to go around.

Will Putin do so? Of course not. No politician on earth is capable of admitting that they screwed up. Should the reports be true and Russia really is trying to cover things up it will follow the pattern of thousands of cover ups before it. It won't work, it will make your country look horrible and you will lose prestige. As always though, it's still too early to know what exactly happened, and we have to remember that it's Ukraine saying this. 

The Ukrainian Civil war has gone international. -War is Boring

When you destroy civilian aircraft, the world takes notice. -War is Boring With anger (also reported on here for the U.S. government response) the world reacts to the downing of Flight 17. Evidence that the rebels most likely fired the shot will have consequences. The world reacted harshly the the destruction of KAL 007 by the Soviet Union, Avianca 203 by Pablo Escobar and Iran Air 655 by the United States, so there is more then enough precedence.

My Comment:
Huge mistake is an understatement. Should the Rebels turn out to the be guilty party, and all evidence at this point implies they will, then all hell will come down on them. Putin will face enormous pressure to force a cease fire and cut off support for the rebels. Whatever sympathy the world had for the Rebels has evaporated completely. I myself had a bit of sympathy for them but it's gone now, with the caveat that I think it's still too early to blame anyone without a more meaningful investigation.

To recap, if you were the rebels right now, your only ally is probably going to abandon you, the world hates you, and the best case scenario is that you surrender. It's about the worst mistake they could have made. And I still think it was a complete accident. Of course Hanlon's razor is in full effect here. Incompetence this bad may as well be malice.

As much as I like War is Boring, and I do highly recommend it, they missed the most obvious example of the destruction of civilian airplanes. 9/11. It completely changed the world resulting in at a global war. And it's easy to forget for a time it made America into a country that could do no wrong in the eyes of the world. Iraq changed that but it was true for awhile. Maybe it was just too obvious?

Why was flight 17 flying over a war zone? -Yahoo/AP

It's been a tough year for Malaysia Airlines. -Yahoo/AP

Why was flight 17 flying over a war zone? -Yahoo/AP. War zones are often ignored by airlines. In this case some airlines did avoid the war zone but many others did not. The bottom line is that it would cost money for the airlines to have avoided the combat zone.

My Comment:

 Like always, it comes down to money. These airlines did not want to eat the costs of rerouting these flights. Passenger air travel is especially sensitive to operating costs, and anything that increases these costs will be avoided if at all possible. 

Some airlines did avoid the area. Malaysia Airlines was not one of them. I think it has a lot to do with the disappearance of Flight 370. That black eye must have hurt their business considerably, so it makes some sense that they would take the risk. It really backfired on them though, nobody is going to want to get on a Malaysia Airlines flight right now.

As for the risk, people should have known the danger. I reported that very morning that there were planes being shot at and being shot down in the region. I understand that these Ukrainian planes were taken down by MANPADS, which don't have the range to hit passenger planes at cruising altitude (and possibly in one case in a air-to-air battle) and not the SA-17 "Buk" missiles, but the risk was obvious. Everyone involved with the risk management for these airlines knew that both the Ukrainians and the Russians had sophisticated anti-air systems that could hit cruising altitude passenger planes, with operators who had very good reason to be trigger happy, but they chose to ignore the threat. 

I know that both the Russian and Ukrainian governments approved the flight plan for Flight 17 but no matter who shot down the plane I believe that the airline deserves quite a bit of blame as well. Profit margins are all well and good but lives trump anything. And even the most cold-hearted capitalist could see that getting a plane full of passengers killed is bad for business.The other airlines who were lucky enough to avoid losing a plane should be criticized as well.  

181 bodies found from Malaysian plane crash, black boxes reportably found. -Yahoo/AP

Onlookers inspect debris. -Yahoo/AP

181 bodies have been recovered from the crash site of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17. Yahoo/AP Pro-Russian militia also claim to have recovered 8 out of the 12 black boxes from the wreck. The debris was spread over a large area. Several individuals who died were heading to an HIV/AIDS conference in Australasia. 

My Comment:

I am sure more bodies will be recovered as time goes on. The fact that many of these people were AIDS researchers is just more tragedy heaped on an already tragic event. Hopefully some kind of temporary truce can be called so the recovery effort and investigation can go on unhindered. I'm not holding my breath though, all three sides of this conflict benefit  from murky waters.

EDIT: CNN has an article about the passengers. Dutch Scientist Joep Lange and World Health Organization employee Glenneth Thomas were among the dead. Such a waste. 

Who is responsible for shooting down Malaysian Airlines flight 17

It hasn't even been a day and the finger pointing has already begun. Someone shot down the airplane. And someone has to be held accountable. Here is my list of who could be responsible:

1. The Russians. They have the advanced weaponry to shoot this plane down. It's been reported that some of there troops are undisciplined and under-trained, so they could have had a fire control issue. I can't see them doing this on purpose though, what possible gain do they get from this?

2. The pro-Russian rebels. If they had the weapons system, and that is a big if, I would say that this is the most likely faction to have done this. They are made up of civilians and ex-military types who may not have the skills necessary to figure what the target was.

3. The Ukrainians. You can't count them out as suspects. I know it makes very little sense for the Ukrainians to shoot down a civilian plane in their own territory, but mistakes happen. They have the weapons and it happened in their land.

4. Some other faction or group. I only mention it because its in the realm of possibility, but it is so unlikely that its barely possible. Unfortunately I can see this theory getting more attention then it deserves. Already there are conspiracy theories flying around.

BREAKING NEWS! Maylasian plane crashes at Ukraine/Russian border. Reuters

Unconfirmed reports of a Malaysian plane crashing in Ukraine near the Russian border. -Reuters 295 people were on board. It is unknown how the plane crashed.

My Comment:
This is a breaking news story. I don't know how reliable the reports are at this point but more updates will be coming soon.

EDIT:

OTHER SOURCES:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysian-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html (live updates)

http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysian-plane-crash-russia-border-2014-7 POSSIBLE VIDEO

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/ifax-malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-in-ukraine-near-russian-border Malay source.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysian-airlines-boeing-777-295-passengers-aboard-crashes-ukraine-1457111

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/17/malaysian-airlines-crash-ukraine-russia/12779763/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787 (live updates)

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/malaysia-airlines-plane-crash-east-ukraine

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-ukraine-151316125.html#Q8f0ndO

EDIT 2:
BBC Just said that the plane may have been shot down. This is huge news.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

http://video.foxnews.com/v/2554140788001/sky-news-reports-on-malaysian-airlines-incident/#sp=watch-live Sky news live feed.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/World_News Reuters live feed

http://rt.com/news/173616-malaysian-crash-ukraine-border/ Russian perspective

EDIT 3:

Picture from the crash site- Reuters