UK police disrupt major terror plot targeting RAF Fairford.

 

A B1B Lancer stationed at RAF Fairford. AP. 

A major terror attack on an airbase in the UK has been disrupted thanks to a vigilant citizen. AP. The attack would have involved three vehicles with explosives targeting RAF Fairford, a base used by the United States military. The base has been used to launch attacks against Iran and has several Air Force B1B Lancer bombers. Five men were arrested after a citizen say them wearing masks and driving towards the base. Police arrested them and bomb disposal units were called. It is unclear who is responsible for the plot, though Iran is largely seen as the most likely suspect after they declared bases like RAF Fairford to be legitimate military targets. 

My Comment:

This was a serious plot and if it wasn't for someone calling the cops on these guys, it may have succeeded. The attackers had explosives and they may have been able to blow the gate into the base and once that happened, they could have targeted the bombers or their hangers. And, even worse, they could have detonated the bombs in the town itself if the operation failed.  

I have no question that the B1B Lancers were the main targets. The US Air Force only has 45 B1B's, though they could probably reactivate a few that are currently mothballed. Losing even one of those to a terror attack would be devastating, let alone a few. Plus this attack could have knocked out the base for awhile too, meaning that any further strikes on Iran would be difficult. But losing any B1B's, let alone as many as a full squadron would be devastating. The type is slowly being replaced by the B21 Raider, but barely any of those have been built. 

So who was responsible for this attack? I would say that it's almost certainly Iran. Iran said this base was a legitimate target and they are absolutely capable of carrying out an attack like this. The suspects were described as Middle Eastern, and they absolutely have a motive to destroy as many B1B Lancers as they could. 

Iran isn't the only suspect though. I guess this could have been a terror organization like ISIS or Al-Qaeda. But I don't really see that being likely. Those terror groups go for civilian targets for the most part and are more about causing casualties, not degrading capabilities like this attack was. I also doubt it was the Russians. Though Russia is capable of this kind of attack and they have some ethnicities that could conceivably be described as "Middle Eastern", they don't really have a reason to attack an Air Force base. Indeed, trying to escalate the Ukraine war by targeting a base that isn't really a threat to them seems idiotic to me, and I don't think the Russians are that stupid. 

This attack was not a justifiable one, assuming Iran was the attacker. For one, the UK isn't really a party to the war and launching an attack on an airbase would be an act of war. The attackers also committed perfidy by not wearing uniforms and wearing civilian outfits. The target itself, the bombers and crew at the base, may have been valid targets, but this was not a valid attack. Indeed, had it succeeded, it may have drawn the UK into the war directly, though you never can tell with the current state of the UK. 

Either way, if it is proven that this was an Iranian attack, it will likely draw a response, perhaps from the very bombers that were the targets of this attack. It also means that a peace deal, already a longshot before the midterms, is probably dead for some time. Keep in mind, Iran reopened negotiations last week, to launch this attack while that is happening is not going to play well at all diplomatically. A new round of strikes isn't guaranteed, indeed, we don't even know Iran is responsible at this point. But I do think they are more likely now than they were before.