The United States and Iran are discussing ending the war in a phased shutdown. Will it happen before the midterms?

 

Vessels stacked up in the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters. 

The United States and Iran are discussing ending the war in a phased shutdown. Reuters. The meeting happened in New York during the UN Assembly. The deal would potentially end the blockade against Iran and would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides have motivations to end the conflict. Iran is being crushed economically due to the blockade while the United States has been affected by high gas prices due to the conflict, which is also affecting the 2026 midterm elections. However, both sides do not want to give up the leverage they have over each other, Iran could believe they could get a better deal after the midterms. And President Trump could be content to let Iran's economy collapse. Still, talks could ease tensions and prevent the on-and-off conflict from erupting again. 

My Comment:

Somewhat promising news from the Iran conflict. The war has been in a limbo where not much has been happening. No talks have been happening and very little has been happening in the way of combat either. Indeed, the Yemen conflict has been the main issue lately, though that is mostly a Saudi problem. 

Fortunately it does seem like the Iranians are using the the UN meeting as an opportunity to talk. Talk is always preferable than not talking and it could mean a negotiated settlement will come. Indeed, that seems like the only realistic way to end the war, the only other possibilities are the Iranian regime collapsing (which isn't likely) or America getting tried of the farce and going home. Neither of those are likely, so it will likely end with talks. 

The problem is that the Iranians aren't rational actors. Indeed, if they were the war would have never started in the first place or, at the very least, would have ended months ago. It's very possible they will continue to be obstinate because they don't actually care what's best for them or their country. 

I do agree that both sides have a major reason to end the war. The blockade and sanctions against Iran have been fairly successful. And remember, Iran's economy was already in shambles before the conflict even begun. They had major environmental problems and were already experiencing hyperinflation. They just can't keep going economically and something is eventually going to have to give. 

As for Trump and the Untied States, I think there is less pressure there and it's mostly political in nature. There is a problem with depleted weapons stocks, which has been overblown but is real, but it's mostly about the midterms. I think the war's impact is overstated and, at the very least, the Republicans are going to keep the Senate, but the chances of keeping the House grow if the war ends and gas prices go down. There's absolutely a motivation to end the conflict. 

However, I do think that Trump isn't willing to sell the farm just for an advantage in the Midterms. He wants the best deal he can get and isn't going to settle for something that doesn't give him the advantage. And he might be more concerned about the 2028 elections than the 2026 midterms. His thinking might be "it's worth it to lose the house if it means the GOP keeps the Presidency in 2026" and that would be more difficult if the Iran war flares up again in 2027 or 2028. 

Either way, the Iran conflict has lasted way longer than it should have. It should have ended months ago and I could see the Iranian's screwing it up again. If I was optimistic, it's a 50-50 chance that these talks lead to anything, but I am not at this point and it's probably 70-30 that it won't amount to much. Still, at least there is an effort to end the war.