Tensions between Iran and Ukraine could escalate after Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea.

 

Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. New York Times/AP.

Tensions between Iran and Ukraine have increased after Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea. New York Times. Ukraine drones attacked an Iranian freighter and killed a civilian sailor. Iran had vowed to retaliate and considered a strike on an Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. The attack would be a single missile and would be considered symbolic in nature. However, the foreign ministers of both Ukraine and Iran talked and deescalated the situation. Iran and Russia are allies and the Caspian Sea has become a critical route for Iran, and any involvement with Ukraine could complicate both wars. 

My Comment:

For now, it seems that cooler heads are prevailing. From what I understand, the phone call between Iran and Ukraine was promising, and it does seem like Iran has backed down from any retaliation. The hope is that this will be the end of it, and Iran's protests over the strike on their ship will remain diplomatic in nature. 

And I don't really think that any of the parties in either conflict would benefit from an actual war between Iran and Ukraine. Seriously, it poses problems for basically every party to both wars. Iran has barely enough weapons to strike targets at this point, most of their launchers are destroyed and they only have a few weapons left. They also would risk having their last major sea route for trade with Russia cut off entirely, due to Ukrainian strikes. 

Ukraine? It has huge manpower problems of their own and they too are just barely able to keep up pressure on Russia. Having Iran join the war on Russia's side would further stretch their resources and they would have difficulty with their air defenses, which have already largely been depleted. 

Russia? They absolutely don't want their sea route with Iran closed. It's absolutely an important corridor for them, and though they are no longer reliant on Iran for their Shahed drones, having Ukraine possibly closing the sea route would be bad for them. 

And America? They want both wars to end. That gets a lot harder to do if both wars are connected. Indeed, the Iran War almost ended once already and it could happen easily again, but not if Ukraine is party to the war. And given that I don't consider the leadership of Iran or Ukraine to be rational actors, diplomacy might be extremely hard to pull off. 

Given the incentives here, I would expect that diplomacy will prevail. I do fear that the leadership of Iran and Ukraine are both, quite frankly, insane, for continuing wars that they lost a long time ago. But even they have to have some rational actors that would consult against this, right? 

So what would a war between Iran and Ukraine look like? I am guessing it would largely be similar to what the Iran war has devolved in, only without the involvement of US Airpower. Both sides have long range missiles and drones and I can see both sides using them to strike targets. Iran would likely target Ukranian ports while Ukraine would likely continue to target Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea. 

There's a small chance that Iran could deploy ground troops to the front lines in Ukraine, but that seems unlikely. Logistically it would be a nightmare because there would be no likely ground route to transport troops and supplies from Iran to Russia, not to mention troop ships would be vulnerable in the Caspian Sea. Plus, Iranian troops are not a good match for the grinding attritional warfare against Ukraine. 

Regardless, I think that even with the irrational leadership of Ukraine and Iran, that there won't be a real conflict between them. Nobody really benefits and both sides would have serious consequences for doing so. There is still some chance of it happening, but I am glad that there is diplomacy happening.