Military action against al-Qaeda terrorists in Mali is being considered by President Trump

 

Mali. News Nation.

Military action against al-Qaeda aligned terrorists in Mali is being considered by the White House. News Nation. A Washington Post report said that the debate was happening because Mali's JNIM terror group has been having success on the battlefield and could potentially overthrow the government. Russia's Africa Corps, an official formation that folded in former Wagner Group mercenaries into the Russian military, has failed to defeat the terrorists since a coup replaced the pro-American government in 2022. The presence of Russian troops in Mali would complicate things and would likely require deconfliction efforts. JNIM has allied with a local independence group, the FLA, and have had major successes on the battlefield, including killing the Defense Minster. 

My Comment:

I don't know how real these reports are. There is a very strong argument to intervene in Mali. The last thing we need is a new Syria or Afghanistan where al-Qaeda can gather a tax base to fund terror attacks globally. That has absolutely not worked out well in the past, to say the least and not intervening against groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS caused an untold amount of misery. 

But there should be a debate, and it sounds like there is one internally. There is the idea that our forces are already stretched thin due to other military actions this year, most notably Venezuela and Iran. Iran especially has drained our weapons stockpiles and exhausted our troops. Launching another military campaign, even a minor one, might not be the best idea. 

Politically it has risks as well. Folks are pretty tired of the Iran War and the media is already framing this as a new conflict, something that the dove wing of his party is not going to be too impressed with. Pre midterms, joining this conflict will not play that well, even if doing so is necessary from a military sense. 

I do think we would be extremely effective though. Mali's major problem is a lack of intelligence and air support. Most of Russia's forces are deployed in Ukraine, obviously, and the Africa Corps is stretched thin in that area. They have some drones and a few helicopters and SU-24 Fencer attack planes but not what they need to be effective, and Mali has even less in terms of these weapon systems. My first instinct would be that we should end the Ukraine War so Russia could better provide their troops in Mali with the support they need, but that's politically impossible. 

It's unclear how open Mali and Russia would be to working together. Both would obviously benefit from the destruction that the US Military could rain down on these terrorists but Mali's government was pretty anti-America (and anti-French, who used to be handling these terrorists). And, obviously, relations between Russia and the United States remains tragically frosty. 

There are signs that Mali is at least willing to entertain the idea of allowing air strikes. There have been some examples of intelligence sharing and high level diplomatic meetings. It could be that Mali might be able to work with the United States. 

However, I should note that any participation of the United States in Mali is not a done deal. There is a debate happening and they are in the very early stages. There's arguments being made for and against it, and President Trump and his team might very well conclude that it's not worth it. It's also possible that Mali and Russia will be able to reverse the battlefield problems they are facing without US help. Right now, nothing is for certain, and we will have to wait and see.