The death toll of the Iran unrest may be as high as 2500 people.

 

A photo of the protests in Iran. AP.

The death toll of Iranian unrest may be as high as 2500 people, a rights group has suggested. AP. The Human Rights Activist News Agency has mad the estimation and if it is true it would be a dramatically higher than in other cases of unrest in Iran. Iranian state TV announced for the first time that the country had a lot of "martyrs". Though the protests started over economic conditions and high inflation, it has moved on to target 86 year old Ayatollah Khamenei, the spiritual leader of Iran's theocracy, a crime punishable by death. President Trump condemned Iran for the deaths, but said he is waiting until numbers are confirmed before he takes any action. The HRANA said that the majority of the deaths were from civilians protesting the government while 147 of them were members of the regime. Iranian civilians have largely been cut off from the outside world, with only the ability to make outside phone calls being preserved. The Iranian regime has been tracking down and arresting people using the Starlink satellite internet service, made free by Elon Musk. 

My Comment:

It's very hard to get good information from the Iran right now, given that foreign contact has largely been shut off. The numbers of deaths is just an estimation, though around 2000 seems to be the consensus. However, the actual numbers could be far above or far below those numbers. Supposedly the regime has acknowledged at least 2000 deaths. 

Regardless, if the 2000-2500 death toll is even close to reality, that means this is the worst round of violence Iran has seen in quite some time. There has been around 20,000 arrests too and it's unclear if the protest movement has broken down yet or not. The regime is cracking down but it's very unclear if it is working or not. 

In the past, the Iranian regime has been able to survive unrest through similar crackdowns. The question now is if things are really difference. Certainly the number of deaths has increased but does that translate to the regime being under threat? 

Given the censorship from the regime, it's very hard to tell. Keep in mind until today we had no real information from the protest movement at all. Today they were able to make some limited calls out to news organizations, but even then I doubt it was universal and it's to the point where even the Trump administration isn't quite sure what is going on. 

But there are a few things that are different this time. The first is that Iran lost a lot of legitimacy domestically when they lost the war against Israel. Though the war ended in a draw, they were unable to do serious damage to Israel, despite taking quite a bit of damage themselves. That's a major loss of face and it's the kind of thing that does damage.

The economy though is the more disastrous problem. A regime that has 40% inflation each month is not likely to survive long term. And I don't think Iran is going to be able to fix the issues, especially because the food and water issues are due to environmental conditions. And all of it could get worse if the United States decides to increase sanctions to the point where the economy breaks entirely. 

Of course the biggest question is what President Trump is going to do. I don't even think he knows at this point, it sounds like he is waiting for a clearer picture for what is happening, just like everyone else. He's been sending pretty strong signals that killing so many protesters is unacceptable to him and his Administration. 

But I am not sure what he can really do. There is no chance of a Iraq-style regime change invasion. Trump doesn't like those and there is zero appetite for that. I also don't think a Venezuela style raid targeting Iran's leadership would happen either. Iran is greatly depleted in terms of military strength, but they still have a large military and some air defenses. I don't know if they could pull that off. 

From a non military standpoint they could increase economic sanctions, a move I expect to happen soon. Sanctions seem to rarely do much though, but given the whole thing is about Iran not being able to manage their economy, it might do something. They could also continue to offer non-military support, like the Starlink satellite dishes that would help the Iranian protesters coordinate. 

If military strikes are on the table, I would assume it would look a lot like the mission to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Such strikes could target regime figures like Khamenei and eliminate them. Doing so would be fairly easy given our tech advantage, but it risks hardening the pro-regime population against the protesters. It would be good if there was some other country that could pull off the strikes, but I don't know that anyone else is capable and willing. 

As for my prediction, I still say the most likely outcome is that Iran's regime survives this. The regime has a lot of problems but they are skilled at putting down riots. There is a chance that the fact that they are letting calls out is showing that they are confident. But am a lot less confident about it then I was when the protests started last month.