President Trump tells Cuba to make a deal or face consequences.

 

President Donald Trump. BBC/Getty.

President Donald Trump has warned Cuba to make a deal with him or face consequences. BBC. Trump said that the flow of oil and money from Venezuela, which got subsidized oil from the country, is now over after an US operation to topple Nicholas Maduro succeeded. Cuba also supplied Venezuela with military support and said that 32 Cuban citizens died in the raid, presumably on Maduro's security detail. Secretary of State Rubio said that Cuba's government should be concerned. Trump and Rubio even joked that Rubio could serve as the first president of a post-Communism Cuba. President Trump has put Rubio in charge of his Western Hemisphere policy, nicknamed the Donroe Doctrine, after the historical Monroe doctrine, where the United States dominates the Americas. 

My Comment:

Cuba should take this warning seriously. Though this fits the pattern of Trump saber rattling before a deal is made, we also know that he is willing to throw down if a deal isn't made. And the Cubans should also worry about Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, and a man who has deep ties to the Cuban exile community in Miami Florida. 

Of course, the most likely solution is to make a deal. What that deal would look like is unclear, but that's the whole point of diplomacy. Columbia's left wing President, Gustavo Petro, faced similar threats earlier in the month in the wake of the Venezuela operation. He bent the knee very quickly and had an effective phone call with Trump, to the point that the two men are probably going to meet in Washington. 

Doing so would be the smart move. Trump, contrary to popular depiction, is a reasonable man and wants to make a deal more than anything else. It was the title of his most famous book, The Art of the Deal, and he gets personal satisfaction and enjoyment from doing so. There is an argument that trying to beat him at his own game is a bad idea, but any deal the Communists in Cuba make with Trump is likely to be better than the results of a military operation against them. 

Such a military operation is absolutely possible. Indeed, Cuba's military is more antiquated and smaller than Venezuela's and Venezuela was unable to meaningfully resist the United States military. They do have more competent soldiers and more people dedicated to the cause than Maduro had, but they also lack the more advanced weapons Venezuela had, like S-300 anti-air missiles and F-16 fighter jets. 

They would also have to face the fact that there is an active military base in Cuba itself, which could be used as a staging area for any operation. Guantanamo Bay is leased to the United States and it has about 2000 to 3000 Marines at any given time, and that number could swell if any military operation could happen. It's a double edged sword, those troops could be potentially vulnerable, though the base is extremely well defended and Cuba would have difficulty attacking it with their antiquated equipment and comparatively small number of troops (50,000 total). 

Complicating things is the fact that Trump is also saber rattling against Iran. It would take a second post to go over that, but it's possible that Trump will conduct military operations against Iran. Should that happen, it could result in an emboldened Cuba. That would be a mistake of course, the US military is designed for multiple military operations at once. Though, to be fair, the Venezuela operation was delayed after strikes in Africa. 

I'd also say that the forces that took down Maduro haven't gone anywhere. There's still 15,000 troops in the region and about a dozen ships, including amphibious assault ships. Plus, Cuba is only 90 miles away from Florida, putting US based assets into play as well. The only thing that is restricting an operation against Cuba is the fact that I don't think the United States has had anywhere near the time to pull it off, unless planning has been going on for months without it being leaked. 

I do like that influence that Rubio has had on this situation. Rubio is a Cuban American and has very personal reasons to despise the Communist regime (every American should have this, but very few people feel it more than Cuban Americans). Rubio's influence should inform Cuba's efforts towards diplomacy, they know he would love to see them behind bars. 

The only problem I see is that if a military operation does happen, how do you sell it to the American people. Unlike Venezuela, the drug war casus belli won't really work. Cuba isn't a major source for drugs, and they aren't much of a threat, despite being listed as a state sponsor of terrorism. We absolutely do have Casus Belli when it comes to Cuba, they are a hostile nation near our borders and have human rights abuses, but I don't know how you sell that to the American people. 

Still, all of that is speculative, I still say that even with the influence of Rubio, Trump would greatly prefer if some kind of deal was made. Given that Columbia bent the knee and the fact that Cuba knows that they don't stand a chance against the United States, I would be surprised if a deal is not made.