Six killed in riots in Iran. Will anything change this time around?

 

Protests in Tehran. BBC/EPA.

At least six people have been killed during riots in Iran. BBC. Protests erupted after the economy collapsed. The Rial fell compared to the dollar by a large amount while inflation has been around 40% for the past few months. Iran is also facing skyrocketing food prices, a major water shortage and general economic chaos. Protesters have called for the end of the Iranian regime and even a return to monarchy. The President, Masoud Pezeshkian, said the regime would listen to "legitimate concerns" of the protesters, but vowed that security services would put down any threats to the regime. The protests are the most serious to hit Iran since 2022. 

My Comment:

We have seen this song and dance many times before. Iran has had major protests hit it every few years and it always ends the same way. With the security forces cracking down hard, mass arrests and eventually executions. I have little doubt that this will be how it ends this time. 

But I guess there is a chance that things will be different. After all, the economy in Iran is absolutely abysmal right now. Under Biden's four years in power we had about 20% inflation over four years and it was enough for him to be run out of the presidency, I can't imagine having to deal with 40% inflation each month since October. That's absolutely not sustainable and with the unemployment rate at 20% I would probably be protesting too. 

The problem is that Iran's security forces are still getting paid. As long as that is the case, they will be able to crack down on these protests with gusto. People aren't going to be willing to make arrests if they aren't getting paid, but if the money is there, they will crack down. If the economy gets so bad or the water situation gets worse, that could change, but right now I don't see them siding with the protesters. 

The protesters also are scattered and I don't think they have much in the way of leadership. They also don't have much in the way of international backing, though I am guessing Iran will blame the United States and Israel. Without that leadership and/or support they will have a very hard time actually overthrowing the regime. 

There is another factor too, and it's the fact that Iran has faced several major international failures, that may have eroded the regime's legitimacy a bit. First, they lost their biggest ally in the region, Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Their proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, have been degraded quite a bit as well, to the point where Hezbollah is no longer much of a factor. And they just lost a major war with Israel. Folks might argue that the war was a draw, or even that Iran won because their regime still stands, but the fact is that regardless, the country no longer has the war with Israel to motivate and unite their population. 

Regardless, I still say that Iran isn't going to collapse because of these protests. Yes, the economic conditions are terrible, but Iran has gotten very good at putting down protests, to the point it's almost an art form for them. Unless the economy completely dies to the point where the regime can't even pay their goons, or some other country tries to help the protesters, I just don't see anything changing.