President Trump says he will meet with President Putin of Russia for talks on Ukraine.

 

President Trump and President Putin during their Alaska meeting. BBC/Reuters.

President Donald Trump says he will meet with President Vladimir Putin of Russia for talks on Ukraine after a "productive phone call". BBC. The two men will meet in Budapest, but no date for the meeting has been announced yet. The move comes as Trump is due to meet with President Zelensky of Ukraine. Trump said that they had talked quite about post-war economic ties between Russia and the United States. Trump seemed to back away from threats to give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, saying that American needed the weapons themselves. Trump met with Putin in August though no major breakthrough happened after the meeting. 

My Comment:

Looks like Trump the diplomat is at it again. After his success with the Gaza war, Trump wants to crack the hardest nut yet, ending the war in Ukraine. Given that the issue fell on the backburner after the August meeting, it was pretty inevitable after the Gaza situation was dealt with that this war would be next on the menu. 

It also explains the saber rattling we have seen from Trump lately. I don't think, for example, that there was ever any serious attempt or intention to give Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, given that US forces would have to operate them and Russia would very likely see that as a casus belli for an actual nuclear war. But the saber rattling did have the effect of getting Putin to agree to a new meeting. 

The problem is that the Ukraine war is going to be an extremely difficult one to end, as I have been saying since it broke out. I've also said that Russia has little incentive to actually end a war that they are winning. They have been fairly active in the battlefield and their strategy of attrition is working. Ukraine is low on weapons, supplies and, most importantly, manpower. 

Zelensky, for his part, is going to be difficult to convince as well. I always say that he would be threatened by hardliners in his own government and if the war were to end he would be very quickly voted out of office. There is also the fact that even though Ukraine's defeat is inevitable, it would take quite some time to get there and Zelensky is probably hoping out for some kind of miracle that could draw NATO into the war. That's not likely to happen, but Zelensky doesn't care. 

But that doesn't mean that diplomacy is pointless. Putin could still be convinced that he's won enough and that any further warfare won't be worth the costs while at the same time getting a good trade deal with Trump. And Zelensky could realize that a negotiated settlement would be the best thing for his people. It's very possible that some deal could be made. 

Is it likely? Probably not. I am guessing that if something happens at this meeting, it could be a partial cease fire. My guess is something like declaring a cease fire on the energy war, which would benefit both sides, could be agreed to. Both sides have been hitting each other's infrastructure very hard and it's causing extreme damage. Ukraine is getting the worst of it, and given that it's getting very close to winter, they are going to want to keep the lights and heat on. I think that would be an easy thing to get an agreement on. 

The interesting thing about Trump's announcement is the talk about post-war trade. I am guessing that was the carrot to go along with the stick. Opening up Russia again would be an economic boon to both countries and even if all that is done is ending sanctions it would be a major incentive for Russia to cooperate. Russia has become largely independent economically, and is surviving the war well, but after opening up, they could easily rebuild what they have lost after the war.