The Supreme Court heard a major voting rights case that could eliminate many Democratic and toss-up congressional districts.

 

The US Supreme Court. ABC News/AFP/Getty.

The Supreme Court heard a major voting rights case that could eliminate many Democratic and toss-up congressional districts and allow Republicans to easily keep the house in 2026. ABC News. In 2022 a court ruled that Louisiana's congressional districts violated the rights of black voters in the case, forcing a redraw that created a 2nd Democratic district in the state. The Supreme Court heard arguments about the case that say that using race as a major factor in drawing the district violates the 14th amendment. Section 2 of the Voter Rights Act prevents "cracking", diluting black voters and "packing" which concentrates them, both for political gain. It is unclear how the court will rule. The court could make a narrow ruling which would say that race can still be used as a factor but the Louisiana case made it too large of a factor. Or they could have a broad ruling which would force elimination of race-based districts. The first option is predicted to be more likely but even that could be critical for the Republicans keeping the house. 

My Comment:

2026 is looking like it will be a wipe-out for the Democrats unless something radical changes. There is already efforts to redistrict in many red states, and that alone should be enough for Republicans to beat the Democrats given the conditions today. Obviously, we don't know what will happen in 2026, there could be an economic issue or a new war or something, that could change how popular the Republicans are, but if something like that doesn't happen, the Democrats are going to have a massively uphill battle. 

Right now the house in controlled 220-215, so they would need to gain three seats to take away a Republican majority. But there are several states that are redistricting including Texas (up to five new GOP seats), Florida (+3 seats), Ohio (+3) and North Carolina (+3) and that could be an easy 10 to 15 seats just there. And more states could follow suit. Though California and New York could do the same thing, they don't have anywhere near the seats to gain.

If there is a narrow ruling that forces a redrawing of Louisiana, it's very likely that the 2nd Democratic district in the state could go away, and even the 1st one could get eliminated as well. That's another two congressional seats and that means the Democrats would be in extreme trouble. This is the most likely outcome.

A wide ruling though? That would wipe the Democrats out for quite some time, they would not have a chance of winning the House for the foreseeable future. Such a ruling would force a huge number of redistricting gerrymanders and it would eliminate a lot of otherwise safe seats in Red States and might even force redrawing maps in blue states like California. 

What should the outcome of this case be? I think the idea that congressional districts being allowed to consider race is obviously prejudiced and a violation of the 14th amendment. All laws in America should be colorblind and it shouldn't matter at all who lives in a district, just that everyone has a chance to vote. Is that the likely outcome? Probably not. But I would appreciate if we move in that direction.