India launches airstrikes against targets in Pakistan. Will there be a war?

 

Ambulances deliver wounded people injured in the attack. Politico/AP.

India has launched a series of airstrikes against targets in Pakistan, in a long awaited response to the Kashmir terrorist attack. Politico. India launched the missiles from their territory and hit six targets it claims are base camps for the terrorists that launched the attack in Kashmir last month. At least 8 people have been killed in the strikes, including a child, according to Pakistan. Pakistan said the attacks were targeting civilians and that the incident was an act of war that would be responded to. Unconfirmed reports detail artillery exchanges between the two countries and there are even reports of planes being shot down. 

Live updates:

AP

BBC

My Comment:

As expected India has launched attacks against targets in Pakistan. This was not at all a surprise as I was saying for a couple days now that I expected India had to make strikes. They lost a lot of face from the terror attack that targeted civilians and were under a lot of pressure from their hardliners. An attack was inevitable. 

There is not a lot of detail as to what is going on. I would caution against paying attention to early reports and official statements from both sides. We won't know what really happened in this battle for a couple of days at least. 

I will address one rumor I have been seeing about planes being shot down. I think that is very possible. India used stand off weapons but it's possible that Pakistani jets or anti-air weapons were able to engage the Indian bombers and I would not be surprised if at least one of those fighter jets were shot down. It's also possible that Pakistan suffered air losses as well, but right now it's not easy to tell. For what it is worth though, the AP is reporting a plane crash on the Indian side of the border so it's very possible they did lose a plane. 

Of course what is happening now is a lot less important than what happens next. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and there is a fear that this could somehow spiral out into a major conflict. I think that is possible, but extremely unlikely. It would take a lot of stupidity and hubris for this skirmish to turn into a major conflict. To be fair, those things are absolutely common in the Indian subcontinent, but I still think a war is unlikely. 

Why? Well for one, this feels like the 2019 skirmish, that saw some bombings and planes being shot down but in the end absolutely nothing happened. Neither side seems like they want to fight a real war and I have seen zero evidence that they are even preparing for such a thing. Like I said, this was a face saving thing for India and that will also be true with Pakistan's response. 

I would also say that it's meaningful that India didn't target Pakistani military targets. These attacks were centered on supposed terror camps but I am guessing that this was all figured out before hand. India knew that attacking military targets would be too much of an escalation so they avoided it. 

Despite all that, the world is more dangerous when India and Pakistan are fighting, even if it's in a very limited and controlled way. I don't know that there is anyone that wants a serious escalation, including Pakistan and India. Indeed, even folks that hate India and Pakistan don't want to see a major war because of the obvious refugee problem that would create. And that's another reason why I think there won't be a war. Both India and Pakistan will be under extreme diplomatic pressure to end this conflict as soon as possible. I am guessing things will calm down sooner rather than later...