A cease-fire has been called between the United States and the Houthis of Yemen, but Israel was not included.

 

File photo of the aftermath of a US airstrike in Saana. Reuters. 

A cease-fire has been called between the United States and the Houthis of Yemen, but Israel was not included. Reuters. The deal would end any attacks on the Houthis by the United States in exchange for no longer targeting US flagged shipping and warships. However, Israel was not included in the deal, raising questions on if shipping attacks could continue. There have not been any attacks on shipping since January though the Houthis have targeted Israel directly since then. The deal was mediated by Oman and the cease-fire was praised by Iran. 

My Comment:

This deal actually happened yesterday but it obviously got lost in the India-Pakistan news. And it was also unclear if Israel was included in the deal yesterday. That's clearly not the case today and it is pretty big news in itself. Of course, if it wasn't for the airstrikes yesterday, the Yemen cease-fire would have been the biggest story of the day regardless. 

This is a pretty good deal for both sides. Yemen was obviously suffering under the increased pace of airstrikes against the Houthis. I don't think the Houthis were in any danger of collapse but they were taking quite a bit of damage with very little to show for it. 

However, the extreme pace and intensity of the combat was taking a toll on the US forces as well. We lost three F-18 Super Hornets, which are not cheap aircraft. One was from friendly fire, one was from an accident and the third may have been due to combat conditions (the plane fell into the ocean while the USS Harry Truman was taking evasive actions, or so it has been reported). It was the most intense naval combat for the US Navy since World War II and they were on the verge of running out of equipment. 

Europe is a big winner for this as well as it was on their behalf that the US Navy was even fighting in the first place. The Signal leak wasn't much of a scandal but it did show that the US had no faith in Europe keeping the sea lanes open themselves. Now they are reaping the reward, their shipping should be able to move through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden now, as long as they aren't Israeli flagged, and maybe even then. 

But this isn't a win for Israel, that's for sure. American airstrikes were helping their fight against the Houthis, who are still regularly attacking them with drones and missiles. This will allow the Houthis to launch more strikes against Israel, even though I doubt the Houthis will attack Israeli shipping anymore. 

So why did Trump make a separate peace with the Houthis without including Israel? I actually think this is an effort in increase pressure on Israel, believe it or not. They are sending them a message that they need to make peace and not only with the Houthis but with Hamas as well. 

It also might be an effort to forestall any war with Iran. Trump is sending a message to them as well, it's a show of good faith that he is serious about peace. Israel will also see that if they go to war with Iran it might be alone. 

Will the cease-fire hold? I think it should. Trump got what he wants, which is open seas in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and the Houthis get to stop being bombed. It's win-win for both of them, and unless something serious happens I doubt it will stop. I guess the Houthis could start attacking shipping again, but doing so would be pretty pointless now.